Water resources transfers through Chinese interprovincial and foreign food trade.

PubMed

Dalin, Carole; Hanasaki, Naota; Qiu, Huanguang; Mauzerall, Denise L; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-07-08

China's water resources are under increasing pressure from socioeconomic development, diet shifts, and climate change. Agriculture still concentrates most of the national water withdrawal. Moreover, a spatial mismatch in water and arable land availability--with abundant agricultural land and little water resources in the north--increases water scarcity and results in virtual water transfers from drier to wetter regions through agricultural trade. We use a general equilibrium welfare model and linear programming optimization to model interprovincial food trade in China. We combine these trade flows with province-level estimates of commodities' virtual water content to build China's domestic and foreign virtual water trade network. We observe large variations in agricultural water-use efficiency among provinces. In addition, some provinces particularly rely on irrigation vs. rainwater. We analyze the virtual water flow patterns and the corresponding water savings. We find that this interprovincial network is highly connected and the flow distribution is relatively homogeneous. A significant share of water flows is from international imports (20%), which are dominated by soy (93%). We find that China's domestic food trade is efficient in terms of rainwater but inefficient regarding irrigation, meaning that dry, irrigation-intensive provinces tend to export to wetter, less irrigation-intensive ones. Importantly, when incorporating foreign imports, China's soy trade switches from an inefficient system to a particularly efficient one for saving water resources (20 km(3)/y irrigation water savings, 41 km(3)/y total). Finally, we identify specific provinces (e.g., Inner Mongolia) and products (e.g., corn) that show high potential for irrigation productivity improvements.

Characteristics of real futures trading networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junjie; Zhou, Shuigeng; Guan, Jihong

2011-01-01

Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks, in which nodes are trading participants, and two nodes have a common edge if the two corresponding investors appear simultaneously in at least one trading record as a purchaser and a seller, respectively. Then, we conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis on the constructed futures trading networks. Empirical results show that the futures trading networks exhibit features such as scale-free behavior with interesting odd-even-degree divergence in low-degree regions, small-world effect, hierarchical organization, power-law betweenness distribution, disassortative mixing, and shrinkage of both the average path length and the diameter as network size increases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that uses real data to study futures trading networks, and we argue that the research results can shed light on the nature of real futures business.

Trading network predicts stock price.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

2014-01-16

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

A Network of Networks Perspective on Global Trade

PubMed Central

Maluck, Julian; Donner, Reik V.

2015-01-01

Mutually intertwined supply chains in contemporary economy result in a complex network of trade relationships with a highly non-trivial topology that varies with time. In order to understand the complex interrelationships among different countries and economic sectors, as well as their dynamics, a holistic view on the underlying structural properties of this network is necessary. This study employs multi-regional input-output data to decompose 186 national economies into 26 industry sectors and utilizes the approach of interdependent networks to analyze the substructure of the resulting international trade network for the years 1990–2011. The partition of the network into national economies is observed to be compatible with the notion of communities in the sense of complex network theory. By studying internal versus cross-subgraph contributions to established complex network metrics, new insights into the architecture of global trade are obtained, which allow to identify key elements of global economy. Specifically, financial services and business activities dominate domestic trade whereas electrical and machinery industries dominate foreign trade. In order to further specify each national sector’s role individually, (cross-)clustering coefficients and cross-betweenness are obtained for different pairs of subgraphs. The corresponding analysis reveals that specific industrial sectors tend to favor distinct directionality patterns and that the cross-clustering coefficient for geographically close country pairs is remarkably high, indicating that spatial factors are still of paramount importance for the organization of trade patterns in modern economy. Regarding the evolution of the trade network’s substructure, globalization is well-expressed by trends of several structural characteristics (e.g., link density and node strength) in the interacting network framework. Extreme events, such as the financial crisis 2008/2009, are manifested as anomalies superimposed

Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

2014-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices. PMID:24429767

Water resources transfers through Chinese interprovincial and foreign food trade

PubMed Central

Dalin, Carole; Hanasaki, Naota; Qiu, Huanguang; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-01-01

China’s water resources are under increasing pressure from socioeconomic development, diet shifts, and climate change. Agriculture still concentrates most of the national water withdrawal. Moreover, a spatial mismatch in water and arable land availability—with abundant agricultural land and little water resources in the north—increases water scarcity and results in virtual water transfers from drier to wetter regions through agricultural trade. We use a general equilibrium welfare model and linear programming optimization to model interprovincial food trade in China. We combine these trade flows with province-level estimates of commodities’ virtual water content to build China’s domestic and foreign virtual water trade network. We observe large variations in agricultural water-use efficiency among provinces. In addition, some provinces particularly rely on irrigation vs. rainwater. We analyze the virtual water flow patterns and the corresponding water savings. We find that this interprovincial network is highly connected and the flow distribution is relatively homogeneous. A significant share of water flows is from international imports (20%), which are dominated by soy (93%). We find that China’s domestic food trade is efficient in terms of rainwater but inefficient regarding irrigation, meaning that dry, irrigation-intensive provinces tend to export to wetter, less irrigation-intensive ones. Importantly, when incorporating foreign imports, China’s soy trade switches from an inefficient system to a particularly efficient one for saving water resources (20 km3/y irrigation water savings, 41 km3/y total). Finally, we identify specific provinces (e.g., Inner Mongolia) and products (e.g., corn) that show high potential for irrigation productivity improvements. PMID:24958864

A virtual water network of the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2014-12-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanization and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanization and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to interannual climate variability. However, urbanization arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and eroded its resilience to climate variability in the long term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance-based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

A virtual water network of the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2014-06-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to climate variability in the short term. However, urbanisation arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and reduced its resilience to climate variability in the long-term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

Preferential attachment in multiple trade networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foschi, Rachele; Riccaboni, Massimo; Schiavo, Stefano

2014-08-01

In this paper we develop a model for the evolution of multiple networks which is able to replicate the concentrated and sparse nature of world trade data. Our model is an extension of the preferential attachment growth model to the case of multiple networks. Countries trade a variety of goods of different complexity. Every country progressively evolves from trading less sophisticated to high-tech goods. The probabilities of capturing more trade opportunities at a given level of complexity and of starting to trade more complex goods are both proportional to the number of existing trade links. We provide a set of theoretical predictions and simulative results. A calibration exercise shows that our model replicates the same concentration level of world trade as well as the sparsity pattern of the trade matrix. We also discuss a set of numerical solutions to deal with large multiple networks.

Analysis of the characteristics of the global virtual water trade network using degree and eigenvector centrality, with a focus on food and feed crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sang-Hyun; Mohtar, Rabi H.; Choi, Jin-Yong; Yoo, Seung-Hwan

2016-10-01

This study aims to analyze the characteristics of global virtual water trade (GVWT), such as the connectivity of each trader, vulnerable importers, and influential countries, using degree and eigenvector centrality during the period 2006-2010. The degree centrality was used to measure the connectivity, and eigenvector centrality was used to measure the influence on the entire GVWT network. Mexico, Egypt, China, the Republic of Korea, and Japan were classified as vulnerable importers, because they imported large quantities of virtual water with low connectivity. In particular, Egypt had a 15.3 Gm3 year-1 blue water saving effect through GVWT: the vulnerable structure could cause a water shortage problem for the importer. The entire GVWT network could be changed by a few countries, termed "influential traders". We used eigenvector centrality to identify those influential traders. In GVWT for food crops, the USA, Russian Federation, Thailand, and Canada had high eigenvector centrality with large volumes of green water trade. In the case of blue water trade, western Asia, Pakistan, and India had high eigenvector centrality. For feed crops, the green water trade in the USA, Brazil, and Argentina was the most influential. However, Argentina and Pakistan used high proportions of internal water resources for virtual water export (32.9 and 25.1 %); thus other traders should carefully consider water resource management in these exporters.

Global Electricity Trade Network: Structures and Implications

PubMed Central

Ji, Ling; Jia, Xiaoping; Chiu, Anthony S. F.; Xu, Ming

2016-01-01

Nations increasingly trade electricity, and understanding the structure of the global power grid can help identify nations that are critical for its reliability. This study examines the global grid as a network with nations as nodes and international electricity trade as links. We analyze the structure of the global electricity trade network and find that the network consists of four sub-networks, and provide a detailed analysis of the largest network, Eurasia. Russia, China, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan have high betweenness measures in the Eurasian sub-network, indicating the degrees of centrality of the positions they hold. The analysis reveals that the Eurasian sub-network consists of seven communities based on the network structure. We find that the communities do not fully align with geographical proximity, and that the present international electricity trade in the Eurasian sub-network causes an approximately 11 million additional tons of CO2 emissions. PMID:27504825

Global Electricity Trade Network: Structures and Implications.

PubMed

Ji, Ling; Jia, Xiaoping; Chiu, Anthony S F; Xu, Ming

2016-01-01

Nations increasingly trade electricity, and understanding the structure of the global power grid can help identify nations that are critical for its reliability. This study examines the global grid as a network with nations as nodes and international electricity trade as links. We analyze the structure of the global electricity trade network and find that the network consists of four sub-networks, and provide a detailed analysis of the largest network, Eurasia. Russia, China, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan have high betweenness measures in the Eurasian sub-network, indicating the degrees of centrality of the positions they hold. The analysis reveals that the Eurasian sub-network consists of seven communities based on the network structure. We find that the communities do not fully align with geographical proximity, and that the present international electricity trade in the Eurasian sub-network causes an approximately 11 million additional tons of CO2 emissions.

Recent evolution of China's virtual water trade: analysis of selected crops and considerations for policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, J.; Liu, J.; Pinter, L.

2014-04-01

China has dramatically increased its virtual water import over recent years. Many studies have focused on the quantity of traded virtual water, but very few go into analysing geographic distribution and the properties of China's virtual water trade network. This paper provides a calculation and analysis of the crop-related virtual water trade network of China based on 27 major primary crops between 1986 and 2009. The results show that China is a net importer of virtual water from water-abundant areas of North America and South America, and a net virtual water exporter to water-stressed areas of Asia, Africa, and Europe. Virtual water import is far larger than virtual water export, and in both import and export a small number of trade partners control the supply chain. Grain crops are the major contributors to virtual water trade, and among grain crops, soybeans, mostly imported from the US, Brazil and Argentina, are the most significant. In order to mitigate water scarcity and secure the food supply, virtual water should actively be incorporated into national water management strategies. And the sources of virtual water import need to be further diversified to reduce supply chain risks and increase resilience.

Agricultural trade networks and patterns of economic development.

PubMed

Shutters, Shade T; Muneepeerakul, Rachata

2012-01-01

International trade networks are manifestations of a complex combination of diverse underlying factors, both natural and social. Here we apply social network analytics to the international trade network of agricultural products to better understand the nature of this network and its relation to patterns of international development. Using a network tool known as triadic analysis we develop triad significance profiles for a series of agricultural commodities traded among countries. Results reveal a novel network "superfamily" combining properties of biological information processing networks and human social networks. To better understand this unique network signature, we examine in more detail the degree and triadic distributions within the trade network by country and commodity. Our results show that countries fall into two very distinct classes based on their triadic frequencies. Roughly 165 countries fall into one class while 18, all highly isolated with respect to international agricultural trade, fall into the other. Only Vietnam stands out as a unique case. Finally, we show that as a country becomes less isolated with respect to number of trading partners, the country's triadic signature follows a predictable trajectory that may correspond to a trajectory of development.

Agricultural Trade Networks and Patterns of Economic Development

PubMed Central

Shutters, Shade T.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata

2012-01-01

International trade networks are manifestations of a complex combination of diverse underlying factors, both natural and social. Here we apply social network analytics to the international trade network of agricultural products to better understand the nature of this network and its relation to patterns of international development. Using a network tool known as triadic analysis we develop triad significance profiles for a series of agricultural commodities traded among countries. Results reveal a novel network “superfamily” combining properties of biological information processing networks and human social networks. To better understand this unique network signature, we examine in more detail the degree and triadic distributions within the trade network by country and commodity. Our results show that countries fall into two very distinct classes based on their triadic frequencies. Roughly 165 countries fall into one class while 18, all highly isolated with respect to international agricultural trade, fall into the other. Only Vietnam stands out as a unique case. Finally, we show that as a country becomes less isolated with respect to number of trading partners, the country's triadic signature follows a predictable trajectory that may correspond to a trajectory of development. PMID:22768310

Quantifying immediate price impact of trades based on the k-shell decomposition of stock trading networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Wen-Jie; Li, Ming-Xia; Xu, Hai-Chuan; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

Traders in a stock market exchange stock shares and form a stock trading network. Trades at different positions of the stock trading network may contain different information. We construct stock trading networks based on the limit order book data and classify traders into k classes using the k-shell decomposition method. We investigate the influences of trading behaviors on the price impact by comparing a closed national market (A-shares) with an international market (B-shares), individuals and institutions, partially filled and filled trades, buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trades, and trades at different positions of a trading network. Institutional traders professionally use some trading strategies to reduce the price impact and individuals at the same positions in the trading network have a higher price impact than institutions. We also find that trades in the core have higher price impacts than those in the peripheral shell.

Projections of Virtual Water Trade Under Agricultural Policy Scenarios in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalin, C.; Hanasaki, N.; Qiu, H.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2014-12-01

China's economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by a sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources and rich foods will deepen the challenge to sustainably feed the population and balance environmental and agricultural policies. In previous work, Inner Mongolia was identified as a target province for trade or agricultural policies aimed at water-use efficiency improvements, due to its large production relying on particularly significant irrigation water use. In addition, water scarcity issues may arises in the greater Beijing area, which represents the largest urban area of arid Northern China. Increasing residential and industrial water demand in this region may lead to fewer available water for irrigation. For these reasons, it is important to estimate the impacts of specific policies aiming at reducing excessive water use for crop production in Inner Mongolia, as well as exploring ways to mitigate pressure on water resources in dry urban areas. In this study, we use socio-economic projections to assess the future state of China's virtual water trade (VWT) network. We then quantify the effects of agricultural policies on the national VWT system and on the efficiency of food trade in terms of water resources. This study addresses the following questions: (1) How future socio-economic changes will affect China's food trade and associated water transfers? (2) To which extent localized reductions of irrigated area can decrease agricultural water use while maintaining national food security? (3) How would these policies affect China's domestic and international VWT network and induced water resources savings (losses)?

Statistical mechanics of the international trade network.

PubMed

Fronczak, Agata; Fronczak, Piotr

2012-05-01

Analyzing real data on international trade covering the time interval 1950-2000, we show that in each year over the analyzed period the network is a typical representative of the ensemble of maximally random weighted networks, whose directed connections (bilateral trade volumes) are only characterized by the product of the trading countries' GDPs. It means that time evolution of this network may be considered as a continuous sequence of equilibrium states, i.e., a quasistatic process. This, in turn, allows one to apply the linear response theory to make (and also verify) simple predictions about the network. In particular, we show that bilateral trade fulfills a fluctuation-response theorem, which states that the average relative change in imports (exports) between two countries is a sum of the relative changes in their GDPs. Yearly changes in trade volumes prove that the theorem is valid.

Statistical mechanics of the international trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fronczak, Agata; Fronczak, Piotr

2012-05-01

Analyzing real data on international trade covering the time interval 1950-2000, we show that in each year over the analyzed period the network is a typical representative of the ensemble of maximally random weighted networks, whose directed connections (bilateral trade volumes) are only characterized by the product of the trading countries' GDPs. It means that time evolution of this network may be considered as a continuous sequence of equilibrium states, i.e., a quasistatic process. This, in turn, allows one to apply the linear response theory to make (and also verify) simple predictions about the network. In particular, we show that bilateral trade fulfills a fluctuation-response theorem, which states that the average relative change in imports (exports) between two countries is a sum of the relative changes in their GDPs. Yearly changes in trade volumes prove that the theorem is valid.

A hybrid Bayesian network approach for trade-offs between environmental flows and agricultural water using dynamic discretization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Lei, Jiaqiang; Sun, Huaiwei; Zeng, Fanjiang; Feng, Xinlong

2017-12-01

Agriculture and the eco-environment are increasingly competing for water. The extension of intensive farmland for ensuring food security has resulted in excessive water exploitation by agriculture. Consequently, this has led to a lack of water supply in natural ecosystems. This paper proposes a trade-off framework to coordinate the water-use conflict between agriculture and the eco-environment, based on economic compensation for irrigation stakeholders. A hybrid Bayesian network (HBN) is developed to implement the framework, including: (a) agricultural water shortage assessments after meeting environmental flows; (b) water-use tradeoff analysis between agricultural irrigation and environmental flows using the HBN; and (c) quantification of the agricultural economic compensation for different irrigation stakeholders. The constructed HBN is computed by dynamic discretization, which is a more robust and accurate propagation algorithm than general static discretization. A case study of the Qira oasis area in Northwest China demonstrates that the water trade-off based on economic compensation depends on the available water supply and environmental flows at different levels. Agricultural irrigation water extracted for grain crops should be preferentially guaranteed to ensure food security, in spite of higher economic compensation in other cash crops' irrigation for water coordination. Updating water-saving engineering and adopting drip irrigation technology in agricultural facilities after satisfying environmental flows would greatly relieve agricultural water shortage and save the economic compensation for different irrigation stakeholders. The approach in this study can be easily applied in water-stressed areas worldwide for dealing with water competition.

Structure and evolution of the global seafood trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gephart, Jessica A.; Pace, Michael L.

2015-12-01

The food production system is increasingly global and seafood is among the most highly traded commodities. Global trade can improve food security by providing access to a greater variety of foods, increasing wealth, buffering against local supply shocks, and benefit the environment by increasing overall use efficiency for some resources. However, global trade can also expose countries to external supply shocks and degrade the environment by increasing resource demand and loosening feedbacks between consumers and the impacts of food production. As a result, changes in global food trade can have important implications for both food security and the environmental impacts of production. Measurements of globalization and the environmental impacts of food production require data on both total trade and the origin and destination of traded goods (the network structure). While the global trade network of agricultural and livestock products has previously been studied, seafood products have been excluded. This study describes the structure and evolution of the global seafood trade network, including metrics quantifying the globalization of seafood, shifts in bilateral trade flows, changes in centrality and comparisons of seafood to agricultural and industrial trade networks. From 1994 to 2012 the number of countries trading in the network remained relatively constant, while the number of trade partnerships increased by over 65%. Over this same period, the total quantity of seafood traded increased by 58% and the value increased 85% in real terms. These changes signify the increasing globalization of seafood products. Additionally, the trade patterns in the network indicate: increased influence of Thailand and China, strengthened intraregional trade, and increased exports from South America and Asia. In addition to characterizing these network changes, this study identifies data needs in order to connect seafood trade with environmental impacts and food security outcomes.

Recent evolution of China's virtual water trade: analysis of selected crops and considerations for policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, J.; Liu, J.; Pinter, L.

2013-09-01

China has dramatically increased its virtual water import unconsciously for recent years. Many studies have focused on the quantity of traded virtual water but very few go into analysing geographic distribution and the properties of China's virtual water trade network. This paper provides a calculation and analysis of the crop-related virtual water trade network of China based on 27 major primary crops between 1986 and 2009. The results show that China is a net importer of virtual water from water-abundant areas of North and South America, and a net virtual water exporter to water-stressed areas of Asia, Africa, and Europe. Virtual water import is far larger than virtual water export and in both import and export a small number of trade partners control the supply chain. Grain crops are the major contributors to virtual water trade, and among grain crops soybeans, mostly imported from the US, Brazil and Argentina are the most significant. As crop yield and crop water productivity in North and South America are generally higher than those in Asia and Africa, the effect of China's crop-related virtual water trade positively contributes to optimizing crop water use efficiency at the global scale. In order to mitigate water scarcity and secure the food supply, virtual water should be actively incorporated into national water management strategies. From the national perspective, China should reduce the export and increase the import of water-intensive crops. But the sources of virtual water import need to be further diversified to reduce supply chain risks and increase resilience.

Trade Integration and Trade Imbalances in the European Union: A Network Perspective

PubMed Central

Krings, Gautier M.; Carpantier, Jean-François; Delvenne, Jean-Charles

2014-01-01

We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indirect) counterparts to traditional (or direct) measures such as the trade-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and trade deficit-to-GDP ratios. Our indirect tools account for the European inter-country trade structure and follow (i) a decomposition of the global trade flow into elementary flows that highlight the long-range dependencies between exporting and importing economies and (ii) the commute-time distance for trade integration, which measures the impact of a perturbation in the economy of a country on another country, possibly through intermediate partners by domino effect. Our application addresses the impact of the launch of the Euro. We find that the indirect imbalance measures better identify the countries ultimately bearing deficits and surpluses, by neutralizing the impact of trade transit countries, such as the Netherlands. Among others, we find that ultimate surpluses of Germany are quite concentrated in only three partners. We also show that for some countries, the direct and indirect measures of trade integration diverge, thereby revealing that these countries (e.g. Greece and Portugal) trade to a smaller extent with countries considered as central in the European Union network. PMID:24465381

Trade integration and trade imbalances in the European Union: a network perspective.

PubMed

Krings, Gautier M; Carpantier, Jean-François; Delvenne, Jean-Charles

2014-01-01

We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indirect) counterparts to traditional (or direct) measures such as the trade-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and trade deficit-to-GDP ratios. Our indirect tools account for the European inter-country trade structure and follow (i) a decomposition of the global trade flow into elementary flows that highlight the long-range dependencies between exporting and importing economies and (ii) the commute-time distance for trade integration, which measures the impact of a perturbation in the economy of a country on another country, possibly through intermediate partners by domino effect. Our application addresses the impact of the launch of the Euro. We find that the indirect imbalance measures better identify the countries ultimately bearing deficits and surpluses, by neutralizing the impact of trade transit countries, such as the Netherlands. Among others, we find that ultimate surpluses of Germany are quite concentrated in only three partners. We also show that for some countries, the direct and indirect measures of trade integration diverge, thereby revealing that these countries (e.g. Greece and Portugal) trade to a smaller extent with countries considered as central in the European Union network.

Network structure impacts global commodity trade growth and resilience.

PubMed

Kharrazi, Ali; Rovenskaya, Elena; Fath, Brian D

2017-01-01

Global commodity trade networks are critical to our collective sustainable development. Their increasing interconnectedness pose two practical questions: (i) Do the current network configurations support their further growth? (ii) How resilient are these networks to economic shocks? We analyze the data of global commodity trade flows from 1996 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between structural properties of the global commodity trade networks and (a) their dynamic growth, as well as (b) the resilience of their growth with respect to the 2009 global economic shock. Specifically, we explore the role of network efficiency and redundancy using the information theory-based network flow analysis. We find that, while network efficiency is positively correlated with growth, highly efficient systems appear to be less resilient, losing more and gaining less growth following an economic shock. While all examined networks are rather redundant, we find that network redundancy does not hinder their growth. Moreover, systems exhibiting higher levels of redundancy lose less and gain more growth following an economic shock. We suggest that a strategy to support making global trade networks more efficient via, e.g., preferential trade agreements and higher specialization, can promote their further growth; while a strategy to increase the global trade networks' redundancy via e.g., more abundant free-trade agreements, can improve their resilience to global economic shocks.

The relation between global migration and trade networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sgrignoli, Paolo; Metulini, Rodolfo; Schiavo, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo

2015-01-01

In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks, focusing our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity, where to assure comparability across networks we apply a hypergeometric filter that lets us identify those links which intensity is significantly higher than expected. Next, proposing a new way to define country neighbors based on the most intense links in the trade network, we use spatial econometrics techniques to measure the effect of migration on international trade, while controlling for network interdependences. Overall, we find that migration significantly boosts trade across countries and we are able to identify product categories for which this effect is particularly strong.

Network structure impacts global commodity trade growth and resilience

PubMed Central

Rovenskaya, Elena; Fath, Brian D.

2017-01-01

Global commodity trade networks are critical to our collective sustainable development. Their increasing interconnectedness pose two practical questions: (i) Do the current network configurations support their further growth? (ii) How resilient are these networks to economic shocks? We analyze the data of global commodity trade flows from 1996 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between structural properties of the global commodity trade networks and (a) their dynamic growth, as well as (b) the resilience of their growth with respect to the 2009 global economic shock. Specifically, we explore the role of network efficiency and redundancy using the information theory-based network flow analysis. We find that, while network efficiency is positively correlated with growth, highly efficient systems appear to be less resilient, losing more and gaining less growth following an economic shock. While all examined networks are rather redundant, we find that network redundancy does not hinder their growth. Moreover, systems exhibiting higher levels of redundancy lose less and gain more growth following an economic shock. We suggest that a strategy to support making global trade networks more efficient via, e.g., preferential trade agreements and higher specialization, can promote their further growth; while a strategy to increase the global trade networks’ redundancy via e.g., more abundant free-trade agreements, can improve their resilience to global economic shocks. PMID:28207790

Distinguishing manipulated stocks via trading network analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Shen, Hua-Wei; Wang, Zhao-Yang

2011-10-01

Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. For the study of manipulation, it is critical to analyze investor behavior in the stock market. In this paper, an analysis of the full transaction records of over a hundred stocks in a one-year period is conducted. For each stock, a trading network is constructed to characterize the relations among its investors. In trading networks, nodes represent investors and a directed link connects a stock seller to a buyer with the total trade size as the weight of the link, and the node strength is the sum of all edge weights of a node. For all these trading networks, we find that the node degree and node strength both have tails following a power-law distribution. Compared with non-manipulated stocks, manipulated stocks have a high lower bound of the power-law tail, a high average degree of the trading network and a low correlation between the price return and the seller-buyer ratio. These findings may help us to detect manipulated stocks.

The evolution of communities in the international oil trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Weiqiong; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Sun, Xiaoqi

2014-11-01

International oil trade is a subset of global trade and there exist oil trade communities. These communities evolve over time and provide clues of international oil trade patterns. A better understanding of the international oil trade patterns is necessary for governments in policy making. To study the evolution of trade communities in the international oil trade network, we set up unweighted and weighted oil trade network models based on complex network theory using data from 2002 to 2011. We detected the communities in the oil trade networks and analyzed their evolutionary properties and stabilities over time. We found that the unweighted and weighted international oil trade networks show many different features in terms of community number, community scale, distribution of countries, quality of partitions, and stability of communities. Two turning points occurred in the evolution of community stability in the international oil trade network. One is the year 2004-2005 which correlates with changes in demand and supply in the world oil market after the Iraq War, and the other is the year 2008-2009 which is connected to the 2008 financial crisis. Different causations of instability show different features and this should be considered by policy makers.

Increasing Susceptibility of the Global Network of Food Trade to Climate Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puma, M. J.; Bose, S.; Chon, S.; Cook, B.

2013-12-01

Globalization of agriculture through trade liberalization has led to a dramatic transformation of the global network of food trade. The many benefits of this globalization include greater and more efficient global agricultural production, reduced variability of regional and global food supplies, and savings in global water resources. However, a potential hidden cost is an increasingly fragile network that is more susceptible to shocks or disruptions. Recent studies suggest that complex systems, like the global food trade network, may have architectural features typically associated with the existence of tipping points and susceptibility to collapse. Here we present evidence that this global agricultural network is increasingly connected, homogeneous, and in a state where network nodes (here countries) can flip between alternate states. We use production and trade data from 1986 to 2009 to identify shifts in national self sufficiency and to quantify changes in connectivity and homogeneity of the wheat, maize and rice trade. We then simulate the possible impacts of climate and crop-disease disruptions, which could potentially trigger a global food crisis through an export-restriction-induced domino effect. Changes in self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) over time for various country groups. The SSR is computed based on production and trade of cereals and starchy roots. (Top row) Time series of SSR for the Group of Eight + Five (G8+5) countries. The '+ Five' refers to the five leading emerging economies in the world. (Bottom row) Boxplots of average SSR over two periods (1986-1990 and 2005-2009) for countries designated as 'Annex I' and 'Least Developed Countries' (LDC) by the United Nations.

Economic aspects of virtual water trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, Taikan; Yano, Shinjiro; Hanasaki, Naota

2017-04-01

Although water is rarely traded over long distances by itself, the total weight of the water consumed to produce traded commodities exceeds the weight of any other commodity traded in the world. This concept is known as virtual water trade. Although space-/time-/commodity-based quantification has been conducted extensively, the underlying causes of this peculiar feature have thus far received little exploration. Here, we use estimates of water consumption from a global hydrological model and statistical data related to food trade to elucidate three facts that explain the fundamental nature of virtual water trade with respect to alleviating water scarcity. First, we quantitatively illustrate the unique position of water among commodities based on its unit price and quantity of sales. Water has an extremely low unit price, and a tremendous volume of water is consumed per person each day. Second, we show that rich but water-scarce countries tend to reduce local water consumption by importing virtual water. Third, we demonstrate that nations characterized by net virtual water exports have higher water resources and income per capita and that no countries fall below a certain threshold with respect to both GDP and water resources. These points suggest that the virtual water trade is explained by economic characteristics of water and that sustainable development depends on promoting the co-development of poverty alleviation and water resource development.

Trade Openness and Domestic Water Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dang, Qian; Konar, Megan

2018-01-01

We contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking, what is the impact of trade on national water use? To address this question, we employ econometric methods to quantify the causal relationship between trade openness and water use. Specifically, we use the instrumental variables methodology to evaluate the impact of trade openness on domestic water withdrawals in agriculture and industry. We find that trade openness does not have a significant impact on total or industrial water withdrawals. However, we show that one percentage point increase in trade openness leads to a 5.21% decrease in agricultural water withdrawals. We find that trade openness reduces water use in agriculture primarily through the intensive margin effect, by leading farmers to produce more with less water, such as through the adoption of technology. We do not find evidence for extensive margin or crop mix impacts on agricultural water withdrawals. Significantly, these results demonstrate that trade openness leads to less water use in agriculture. This finding has broad scientific and policy relevance as we endeavor to untangle causal relationships in the complex global food system and develop policies to achieve water and food security.

Hierarchicality of trade flow networks reveals complexity of products.

PubMed

Shi, Peiteng; Zhang, Jiang; Yang, Bo; Luo, Jingfei

2014-01-01

With globalization, countries are more connected than before by trading flows, which amounts to at least 36 trillion dollars today. Interestingly, around 30-60 percents of exports consist of intermediate products in global. Therefore, the trade flow network of particular product with high added values can be regarded as value chains. The problem is weather we can discriminate between these products from their unique flow network structure? This paper applies the flow analysis method developed in ecology to 638 trading flow networks of different products. We claim that the allometric scaling exponent η can be used to characterize the degree of hierarchicality of a flow network, i.e., whether the trading products flow on long hierarchical chains. Then, it is pointed out that the flow networks of products with higher added values and complexity like machinary, transport equipment etc. have larger exponents, meaning that their trade flow networks are more hierarchical. As a result, without the extra data like global input-output table, we can identify the product categories with higher complexity, and the relative importance of a country in the global value chain by the trading network solely.

Hierarchicality of Trade Flow Networks Reveals Complexity of Products

PubMed Central

Shi, Peiteng; Zhang, Jiang; Yang, Bo; Luo, Jingfei

2014-01-01

With globalization, countries are more connected than before by trading flows, which amounts to at least trillion dollars today. Interestingly, around percents of exports consist of intermediate products in global. Therefore, the trade flow network of particular product with high added values can be regarded as value chains. The problem is weather we can discriminate between these products from their unique flow network structure? This paper applies the flow analysis method developed in ecology to 638 trading flow networks of different products. We claim that the allometric scaling exponent can be used to characterize the degree of hierarchicality of a flow network, i.e., whether the trading products flow on long hierarchical chains. Then, it is pointed out that the flow networks of products with higher added values and complexity like machinary, transport equipment etc. have larger exponents, meaning that their trade flow networks are more hierarchical. As a result, without the extra data like global input-output table, we can identify the product categories with higher complexity, and the relative importance of a country in the global value chain by the trading network solely. PMID:24905753

Networks of military alliances, wars, and international trade

PubMed Central

Jackson, Matthew O.; Nei, Stephen

2015-01-01

We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: Trade increases the density of alliances so that countries are less vulnerable to attack and also reduces countries’ incentives to attack an ally. We present historical data on wars and trade showing that the dramatic drop in interstate wars since 1950 is paralleled by a densification and stabilization of trading relationships and alliances. Based on the model we also examine some specific relationships, finding that countries with high levels of trade with their allies are less likely to be involved in wars with any other countries (including allies and nonallies), and that an increase in trade between two countries correlates with a lower chance that they will go to war with each other. PMID:26668370

Networks of military alliances, wars, and international trade.

PubMed

Jackson, Matthew O; Nei, Stephen

2015-12-15

We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: Trade increases the density of alliances so that countries are less vulnerable to attack and also reduces countries' incentives to attack an ally. We present historical data on wars and trade showing that the dramatic drop in interstate wars since 1950 is paralleled by a densification and stabilization of trading relationships and alliances. Based on the model we also examine some specific relationships, finding that countries with high levels of trade with their allies are less likely to be involved in wars with any other countries (including allies and nonallies), and that an increase in trade between two countries correlates with a lower chance that they will go to war with each other.

Does Human Migration Affect International Trade? A Complex-Network Perspective

PubMed Central

Fagiolo, Giorgio; Mastrorillo, Marina

2014-01-01

This paper explores the relationships between international human migration and merchandise trade using a complex-network approach. We firstly compare the topological structure of worldwide networks of human migration and bilateral trade over the period 1960–2000. Next, we ask whether pairs of countries that are more central in the migration network trade more. We show that: (i) the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated, and such correlation can be mostly explained by country economic/demographic size and geographical distance; (ii) centrality in the international-migration network boosts bilateral trade; (iii) intensive forms of country centrality are more trade enhancing than their extensive counterparts. Our findings suggest that bilateral trade between any two countries is not only affected by the presence of migrants from either countries, but also by their relative embeddedness in the complex web of corridors making up the network of international human migration. PMID:24828376

Virtual water flows and trade liberalization.

PubMed

Ramirez-Vallejo, J; Rogers, P

2004-01-01

The linkages between agricultural trade and water resources need to be identified and analyzed to better understand the potential impacts that a full liberalization, or lack thereof, will have on water resources. This paper examines trade of virtual water embodied in agricultural products for most countries of the world. The main purpose of the paper, however, is to examine the impact of trade liberalization on virtual-water trade in the future. Based on a simulation of global agricultural trade, a scenario of full liberalization of agriculture was used to assess the net effect of virtual water flows from the relocation of meat and cereals' trade. The paper also identifies the main reasons behind the changes in the magnitude and direction of the net virtual water trade over time, and shows that virtual water trade flows are independent of water resource endowments, contrary to what the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem states. Finally, based on a formal model, some input demand functions at the country level are estimated. The estimates of the income and agricultural support elasticities of demand for import of virtual water have the expected sign, and are statistically significant. Variables found to have some explanatory power of the variance of virtual water imports are average income; population; agriculture as value added; irrigated area, and exports of goods and services.

Does human migration affect international trade? A complex-network perspective.

PubMed

Fagiolo, Giorgio; Mastrorillo, Marina

2014-01-01

This paper explores the relationships between international human migration and merchandise trade, using a complex-network approach. We firstly compare the topological structure of worldwide networks of human migration and bilateral trade over the period 1960-2000. Next, we ask whether the position of any pair of countries in the migration network affects their bilateral trade flows. We show that: (i) both weighted and binary versions of the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated; (ii) such correlations can be mostly explained by country economic/demographic size and geographical distance; and (iii) pairs of countries that are more central in the international-migration network trade more. Our findings suggest that bilateral trade between any two countries is not only affected by the presence of migrants from either countries but also by their relative embeddedness in the complex web of corridors making up the network of international human migration.

Discovering Preferential Patterns in Sectoral Trade Networks

PubMed Central

Cingolani, Isabella; Piccardi, Carlo; Tajoli, Lucia

2015-01-01

We analyze the patterns of import/export bilateral relations, with the aim of assessing the relevance and shape of “preferentiality” in countries’ trade decisions. Preferentiality here is defined as the tendency to concentrate trade on one or few partners. With this purpose, we adopt a systemic approach through the use of the tools of complex network analysis. In particular, we apply a pattern detection approach based on community and pseudocommunity analysis, in order to highlight the groups of countries within which most of members’ trade occur. The method is applied to two intra-industry trade networks consisting of 221 countries, relative to the low-tech “Textiles and Textile Articles” and the high-tech “Electronics” sectors for the year 2006, to look at the structure of world trade before the start of the international financial crisis. It turns out that the two networks display some similarities and some differences in preferential trade patterns: they both include few significant communities that define narrow sets of countries trading with each other as preferential destinations markets or supply sources, and they are characterized by the presence of similar hierarchical structures, led by the largest economies. But there are also distinctive features due to the characteristics of the industries examined, in which the organization of production and the destination markets are different. Overall, the extent of preferentiality and partner selection at the sector level confirm the relevance of international trade costs still today, inducing countries to seek the highest efficiency in their trade patterns. PMID:26485163

Discovering Preferential Patterns in Sectoral Trade Networks.

PubMed

Cingolani, Isabella; Piccardi, Carlo; Tajoli, Lucia

2015-01-01

We analyze the patterns of import/export bilateral relations, with the aim of assessing the relevance and shape of "preferentiality" in countries' trade decisions. Preferentiality here is defined as the tendency to concentrate trade on one or few partners. With this purpose, we adopt a systemic approach through the use of the tools of complex network analysis. In particular, we apply a pattern detection approach based on community and pseudocommunity analysis, in order to highlight the groups of countries within which most of members' trade occur. The method is applied to two intra-industry trade networks consisting of 221 countries, relative to the low-tech "Textiles and Textile Articles" and the high-tech "Electronics" sectors for the year 2006, to look at the structure of world trade before the start of the international financial crisis. It turns out that the two networks display some similarities and some differences in preferential trade patterns: they both include few significant communities that define narrow sets of countries trading with each other as preferential destinations markets or supply sources, and they are characterized by the presence of similar hierarchical structures, led by the largest economies. But there are also distinctive features due to the characteristics of the industries examined, in which the organization of production and the destination markets are different. Overall, the extent of preferentiality and partner selection at the sector level confirm the relevance of international trade costs still today, inducing countries to seek the highest efficiency in their trade patterns.

Virtual water trade and bilateral conflicts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Angelis, Enrico; Metulini, Rodolfo; Bove, Vincenzo; Riccaboni, Massimo

2017-12-01

In light of growing water scarcity, virtual water, or the water embedded in key water-intensive commodities, has been an active area of debate among practitioners and academics alike. As of yet, however, there is no consensus on whether water scarcity affects conflict behavior and we still lack empirical research intending to account for the role of virtual water in affecting the odds of militarized disputes between states. Using quantitative methods and data on virtual water trade, we find that bilateral and multilateral trade openness reduce the probability of war between any given pair of countries, which is consistent with the strategic role of this important commodity and the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains. We also find that the substantive effect of virtual water trade is comparable to that of oil and gas, the archetypal natural resources, in determining interstate conflicts' probability.

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

PubMed

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Effects of International Trade on Water Use.

PubMed

Kagohashi, Kazuki; Tsurumi, Tetsuya; Managi, Shunsuke

2015-01-01

The growing scarcity of water resources worldwide is conditioned not only by precipitation changes but also by changes to water use patterns; the latter is driven by social contexts such as capital intensity, trade openness, and income. This study explores the determinants of water use by focusing on the effect of trade openness on the degree to which water is withdrawn and consumed. Previous studies have conducted analyses on the determinants of water use but have ignored the endogeneity of trade openness. To deal with this endogeneity problem, we adopt instrumental variable estimation and clarify the determinants of water use. The determinants of water use are divided into scale, technique, and composition effects. Calculating each trade-induced effect, we examine how trade openness affects the degree of water use. Our results show that while trade has a positive effect on water withdrawal/consumption through trade-induced scale effects and direct composition effects, the trade-induced technique and the indirect composition effect, both of which exhibit a negative sign, counteract the scale effect and the direct composition effect, resulting in reduced water withdrawal/consumption. The overall effect induced by trade is calculated as being in the range of -1.00 to -1.52; this means that the overall effect of a 1% increase in the intensity of trade openness reduces the degree of water withdrawal/consumption by roughly 1.0-1.5%, on average. This result indicates that international bilateral trade would promote efficient water use through the diffusion of water-saving technologies and the reformation of industry composition.

The Effects of International Trade on Water Use

PubMed Central

Kagohashi, Kazuki; Tsurumi, Tetsuya; Managi, Shunsuke

2015-01-01

The growing scarcity of water resources worldwide is conditioned not only by precipitation changes but also by changes to water use patterns; the latter is driven by social contexts such as capital intensity, trade openness, and income. This study explores the determinants of water use by focusing on the effect of trade openness on the degree to which water is withdrawn and consumed. Previous studies have conducted analyses on the determinants of water use but have ignored the endogeneity of trade openness. To deal with this endogeneity problem, we adopt instrumental variable estimation and clarify the determinants of water use. The determinants of water use are divided into scale, technique, and composition effects. Calculating each trade-induced effect, we examine how trade openness affects the degree of water use. Our results show that while trade has a positive effect on water withdrawal/consumption through trade-induced scale effects and direct composition effects, the trade-induced technique and the indirect composition effect, both of which exhibit a negative sign, counteract the scale effect and the direct composition effect, resulting in reduced water withdrawal/consumption. The overall effect induced by trade is calculated as being in the range of –1.00 to –1.52; this means that the overall effect of a 1% increase in the intensity of trade openness reduces the degree of water withdrawal/consumption by roughly 1.0–1.5%, on average. This result indicates that international bilateral trade would promote efficient water use through the diffusion of water-saving technologies and the reformation of industry composition. PMID:26168045

The QAP weighted network analysis method and its application in international services trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Helian; Cheng, Long

2016-04-01

Based on QAP (Quadratic Assignment Procedure) correlation and complex network theory, this paper puts forward a new method named QAP Weighted Network Analysis Method. The core idea of the method is to analyze influences among relations in a social or economic group by building a QAP weighted network of networks of relations. In the QAP weighted network, a node depicts a relation and an undirect edge exists between any pair of nodes if there is significant correlation between relations. As an application of the QAP weighted network, we study international services trade by using the QAP weighted network, in which nodes depict 10 kinds of services trade relations. After the analysis of international services trade by QAP weighted network, and by using distance indicators, hierarchy tree and minimum spanning tree, the conclusion shows that: Firstly, significant correlation exists in all services trade, and the development of any one service trade will stimulate the other nine. Secondly, as the economic globalization goes deeper, correlations in all services trade have been strengthened continually, and clustering effects exist in those services trade. Thirdly, transportation services trade, computer and information services trade and communication services trade have the most influence and are at the core in all services trade.

Water Quality Trading Toolkit for Permit Writers

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Water Quality Trading Toolkit for Permit Writers is EPA’s first “how-to” manual on designing and implementing water quality trading programs. It helps NPDES permitting authorities incorporate trading provisions into permits.

Spatial organization and drivers of the virtual water trade: a community-structure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Odorico, Paolo; Carr, Joel; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2012-09-01

The trade of agricultural commodities can be associated with a virtual transfer of the local freshwater resources used for the production of these goods. Thus, trade of food products virtually transfers large amounts of water from areas of food production to far consumption regions, a process termed the ‘globalization of water’. We consider the (time-varying) community structure of the virtual water network for the years 1986-2008. The communities are groups of countries with dense internal connections, while the connections are sparser among different communities. Between 1986 and 2008, the ratio between virtual water flows within communities and the total global trade of virtual water has continuously increased, indicating the existence of well defined clusters of virtual water transfers. In some cases (e.g. Central and North America and Europe in recent years) the virtual water communities correspond to geographically coherent regions, suggesting the occurrence of an ongoing process of regionalization of water resources. However, most communities also include countries located on different ‘sides’ of the world. As such, geographic proximity only partly explains the community structure of virtual water trade. Similarly, the global distribution of people and wealth, whose effect on the virtual water trade is expressed through simple ‘gravity models’, is unable to explain the strength of virtual water communities observed in the past few decades. A gravity model based on the availability of and demand for virtual water in different countries has higher explanatory power, but the drivers of the virtual water fluxes are yet to be adequately identified.

Social networks and trade of services: modelling interregional flows with spatial and network autocorrelation effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Mata, Tamara; Llano, Carlos

2013-07-01

Recent literature on border effect has fostered research on informal barriers to trade and the role played by network dependencies. In relation to social networks, it has been shown that intensity of trade in goods is positively correlated with migration flows between pairs of countries/regions. In this article, we investigate whether such a relation also holds for interregional trade of services. We also consider whether interregional trade flows in services linked with tourism exhibit spatial and/or social network dependence. Conventional empirical gravity models assume the magnitude of bilateral flows between regions is independent of flows to/from regions located nearby in space, or flows to/from regions related through social/cultural/ethic network connections. With this aim, we provide estimates from a set of gravity models showing evidence of statistically significant spatial and network (demographic) dependence in the bilateral flows of the trade of services considered. The analysis has been applied to the Spanish intra- and interregional monetary flows of services from the accommodation, restaurants and travel agencies for the period 2000-2009, using alternative datasets for the migration stocks and definitions of network effects.

Trading water to improve environmental flow outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connor, Jeffery D.; Franklin, Brad; Loch, Adam; Kirby, Mac; Wheeler, Sarah Ann

2013-07-01

As consumptive extractions and water scarcity pressures brought about by climate change increase in many world river basins, so do the risks to water-dependent ecological assets. In response, public or not for profit environmental water holders (EWHs) have been established in many areas and bestowed with endowments of water and mandates to manage water for ecological outcomes. Water scarcity has also increasingly spawned water trade arrangements in many river basins, and in many instances, EWHs are now operating in water markets. A number of EWHs, especially in Australia, begin with an endowment of permanent water entitlements purchased from irrigators. Such water entitlements typically have relatively constant interannual supply profiles that often do not match ecological water demand involving flood pulses and periods of drying. This article develops a hydrologic-economic simulation model of the Murrumbidgee catchment within the Murray-Darling Basin to assess the scope of possibilities to improve environmental outcomes through EWH trading on an annual water lease market. We find that there are some modest opportunities for EWHs to improve environmental outcomes through water trade. The best opportunities occur in periods of drought and for ecological outcomes that benefit from moderately large floods. We also assess the extent to which EWH trading in annual water leases may create pecuniary externalities via bidding up or down the water lease prices faced by irrigators. Environmental water trading is found to have relatively small impacts on water market price outcomes. Overall our results suggest that the benefits of developing EWH trading may well justify the costs.

Toward quantifying the effectiveness of water trading under uncertainty.

PubMed

Luo, B; Huang, G H; Zou, Y; Yin, Y Y

2007-04-01

This paper presents a methodology for quantifying the effectiveness of water-trading under uncertainty, by developing an optimization model based on the interval-parameter two-stage stochastic program (TSP) technique. In the study, the effectiveness of a water-trading program is measured by the water volume that can be released through trading from a statistical point of view. The methodology can also deal with recourse water allocation problems generated by randomness in water availability and, at the same time, tackle uncertainties expressed as intervals in the trading system. The developed methodology was tested with a hypothetical water-trading program in an agricultural system in the Swift Current Creek watershed, Canada. Study results indicate that the methodology can effectively measure the effectiveness of a trading program through estimating the water volume being released through trading in a long-term view. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to analyze the effects of different trading costs on the trading program. It shows that the trading efforts would become ineffective when the trading costs are too high. The case study also demonstrates that the trading program is more effective in a dry season when total water availability is in shortage.

Trade in and Valuation of Virtual Water Impacts in a City: A Case Study Of Flagstaff, Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushforth, R.; Ruddell, B. L.

2013-12-01

An increasingly intense component of the global coupled natural and human system (CNH) is the economic trade of various types of resources and the outsourcing of resource impacts between geographically distant economic systems. The human economy's trade arrangements allow specific localities, especially cities, to exceed spatially local resource stock sustainability and footprint constraints, as evidenced in the urban metabolism literature. Each movement or trade of a resource along a network is associated with an embedded or 'virtual' exchange of indirect impacts on the inputs to the production process. The networked trade of embedded resources, therefore, is an essential human adaptation to resource limitations. Using the Embedded Resource Impact Accounting (ERA) framework, we examine the network of embedded water flows created through the trade of goods and services and economic development in Flagstaff, Arizona, and associate these flows with the creation of value in sectors of the economy

Identifying the Community Structure of the Food-Trade International Multi-Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torreggiani, S.; Mangioni, G.

2018-01-01

Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network's community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001-2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors-such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership-than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential 'shocks' to global food trade.

Vulnerability to shocks in the global seafood trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gephart, Jessica A.; Rovenskaya, Elena; Dieckmann, Ulf; Pace, Michael L.; Brännström, Åke

2016-03-01

Trade can allow countries to overcome local or regional losses (shocks) to their food supply, but reliance on international food trade also exposes countries to risks from external perturbations. Countries that are nutritionally or economically dependent on international trade of a commodity may be adversely affected by such shocks. While exposure to shocks has been studied in financial markets, communication networks, and some infrastructure systems, it has received less attention in food-trade networks. Here, we develop a forward shock-propagation model to quantify how trade flows are redistributed under a range of shock scenarios and assess the food-security outcomes by comparing changes in national fish supplies to indices of each country’s nutritional fish dependency. Shock propagation and distribution among regions are modeled on a network of historical bilateral seafood trade data from UN Comtrade using 205 reporting territories grouped into 18 regions. In our model exposure to shocks increases with total imports and the number of import partners. We find that Central and West Africa are the most vulnerable to shocks, with their vulnerability increasing when a willingness-to-pay proxy is included. These findings suggest that countries can reduce their overall vulnerability to shocks by reducing reliance on imports and diversifying food sources. As international seafood trade grows, identifying these types of potential risks and vulnerabilities is important to build a more resilient food system.

Genomic admixture tracks pulses of economic activity over 2,000 years in the Indian Ocean trading network.

PubMed

Brucato, Nicolas; Kusuma, Pradiptajati; Beaujard, Philippe; Sudoyo, Herawati; Cox, Murray P; Ricaut, François-Xavier

2017-06-07

The Indian Ocean has long been a hub of interacting human populations. Following land- and sea-based routes, trade drove cultural contacts between far-distant ethnic groups in Asia, India, the Middle East and Africa, creating one of the world's first proto-globalized environments. However, the extent to which population mixing was mediated by trade is poorly understood. Reconstructing admixture times from genomic data in 3,006 individuals from 187 regional populations reveals a close association between bouts of human migration and trade volumes during the last 2,000 years across the Indian Ocean trading system. Temporal oscillations in trading activity match phases of contraction and expansion in migration, with high water marks following the expansion of the Silk Roads in the 5 th century AD, the rise of maritime routes in the 11 th century and a drastic restructuring of the trade network following the arrival of Europeans in the 16 th century. The economic fluxes of the Indian Ocean trade network therefore directly shaped exchanges of genes, in addition to goods and concepts.

Impact of Network Activity on the Spread of Infectious Diseases through the German Pig Trade Network.

PubMed

Lebl, Karin; Lentz, Hartmut H K; Pinior, Beate; Selhorst, Thomas

2016-01-01

The trade of livestock is an important and growing economic sector, but it is also a major factor in the spread of diseases. The spreading of diseases in a trade network is likely to be influenced by how often existing trade connections are active. The activity α is defined as the mean frequency of occurrences of existing trade links, thus 0 < α ≤ 1. The observed German pig trade network had an activity of α = 0.11, thus each existing trade connection between two farms was, on average, active at about 10% of the time during the observation period 2008-2009. The aim of this study is to analyze how changes in the activity level of the German pig trade network influence the probability of disease outbreaks, size, and duration of epidemics for different disease transmission probabilities. Thus, we want to investigate the question, whether it makes a difference for a hypothetical spread of an animal disease to transport many animals at the same time or few animals at many times. A SIR model was used to simulate the spread of a disease within the German pig trade network. Our results show that for transmission probabilities <1, the outbreak probability increases in the case of a decreased frequency of animal transports, peaking range of α from 0.05 to 0.1. However, for the final outbreak size, we find that a threshold exists such that finite outbreaks occur only above a critical value of α, which is ~0.1, and therefore in proximity of the observed activity level. Thus, although the outbreak probability increased when decreasing α, these outbreaks affect only a small number of farms. The duration of the epidemic peaks at an activity level in the range of α = 0.2-0.3. Additionally, the results of our simulations show that even small changes in the activity level of the German pig trade network would have dramatic effects on outbreak probability, outbreak size, and epidemic duration. Thus, we can conclude and recommend that the network activity is

Identifying the community structure of the food-trade international multi-network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torreggiani, S.; Mangioni, G.; Puma, M. J.; Fagiolo, G.

2018-05-01

Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network’s community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001–2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors—such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership—than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential ‘shocks’ to global food trade.

Networks of global bird invasion altered by regional trade ban

PubMed Central

Reino, Luís; Figueira, Rui; Beja, Pedro; Araújo, Miguel B.; Capinha, César; Strubbe, Diederik

2017-01-01

Wildlife trade is a major pathway for introduction of invasive species worldwide. However, how exactly wildlife trade influences invasion risk, beyond the transportation of individuals to novel areas, remains unknown. We analyze the global trade network of wild-caught birds from 1995 to 2011 as reported by CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora). We found that before the European Union ban on imports of wild-caught birds, declared in 2005, invasion risk was closely associated with numbers of imported birds, diversity of import sources, and degree of network centrality of importer countries. After the ban, fluxes of global bird trade declined sharply. However, new trade routes emerged, primarily toward the Nearctic, Afrotropical, and Indo-Malay regions. Although regional bans can curtail invasion risk globally, to be fully effective and prevent rerouting of trade flows, bans should be global. PMID:29181443

Networks of global bird invasion altered by regional trade ban.

PubMed

Reino, Luís; Figueira, Rui; Beja, Pedro; Araújo, Miguel B; Capinha, César; Strubbe, Diederik

2017-11-01

Wildlife trade is a major pathway for introduction of invasive species worldwide. However, how exactly wildlife trade influences invasion risk, beyond the transportation of individuals to novel areas, remains unknown. We analyze the global trade network of wild-caught birds from 1995 to 2011 as reported by CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora). We found that before the European Union ban on imports of wild-caught birds, declared in 2005, invasion risk was closely associated with numbers of imported birds, diversity of import sources, and degree of network centrality of importer countries. After the ban, fluxes of global bird trade declined sharply. However, new trade routes emerged, primarily toward the Nearctic, Afrotropical, and Indo-Malay regions. Although regional bans can curtail invasion risk globally, to be fully effective and prevent rerouting of trade flows, bans should be global.

The stability of the international oil trade network from short-term and long-term perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qingru; Gao, Xiangyun; Zhong, Weiqiong; Liu, Nairong

2017-09-01

To examine the stability of the international oil trade network and explore the influence of countries and trade relationships on the trade stability, we construct weighted and unweighted international oil trade networks based on complex network theory using oil trading data between countries from 1996 to 2014. We analyze the stability of international oil trade network (IOTN) from short-term and long-term aspects. From the short-term perspective, we find that the trade volumes play an important role on the stability. Moreover, the weighted IOTN is stable; however, the unweighted networks can better reflect the actual evolution of IOTN. From the long-term perspective, we identify trade relationships that are maintained during the whole sample period to reveal the situation of the whole international oil trade. We provide a way to quantitatively measure the stability of complex network from short-term and long-term perspectives, which can be applied to measure and analyze trade stability of other goods or services.

Controls of the U.S. Virtual Water Transfer Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, S.; Mejia, A.

2017-12-01

A complex interplay of human and natural factors shape the economic geography of the U.S., operating through socioeconomic forces that drive the consumption, production, and exchange of commodities. The virtual water content of a commodity represents the water embedded in its production. This work investigates the controls of national bilateral transfers of the virtual water transfer network (VWTN), through a gravity-type spatial interaction model. We use a probabilistic model to predict the binary network and investigate whether the gravity model can explain the topological properties of the empirical weighted network. In general, the gravity model relates transfer flows to the mass of the trading regions and their geographical distance. We hypothesize that properties of the nodes such as population, employment, and availability of land, together with the Euclidean distance between two trading regions, capture the main drivers of the national VWTN. The results from the model are then compared to the empirical weighted network to verify its ability to model the structure of this self-organized system. The proposed empirical model provides insight into the processes that underlie the formation of the VWTN. It can be a promising tool to study how flows are affected by changes in the generating conditions due to shocks and/or stresses.

Virtual Water Trade: Revisiting the Assessments to Incorporate Regional Water Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perveen, S.; Puma, M. J.; Troy, T. J.; Browne, M.; Ghosh, M.

2011-12-01

Virtual water (VW) refers to the volume of freshwater embedded in the production and shipment of a commodity, which can include agricultural or industrial products, and the trade of commodities can then be viewed as the trade of one region's water resources to another. The premise behind this trade is that countries with a comparative water advantage may choose to export crops, and countries with scarce water resources may focus economic activity on non-water intensive sectors. However, this assumption is not always true given food self-sufficiency policies; water scarce regions often choose to unsustainably mine aquifers for irrigation. Recent studies have shown no correlation between dependency on VW imports and water scarcity for nations, suggesting that politico-economic considerations rather than resource scarcity considerations may dominate the current VW dynamics. Existing VW computations do not take into account water-scarcity value or the full-cost pricing of commodities. This study aims to fill in this gap by focusing on three countries - the United States, India, and Japan - and their production, imports and exports of crop, livestock and industrial commodities. These countries offer three different perspectives on virtual water, with Japan as a net importer of agriculture virtual water and a major industrial nation. The United States, on the other hand, exports significant quantities of grain. India is a developing country with a strong focus on food self-sufficiency. We first quantify the amount of water used in the production of each commodity and then examine the virtual water trade balance for each country, examining the tradeoffs each country has made between agriculture and industrial water use; given that water resources are finite. To examine the interplay between virtual water trade and water scarcity, we focus on two sub-regions, the Ogallala Aquifer in the US and the Punjab region in India, both of which have significant agricultural

75 FR 60736 - Water Technology Trade Mission to India

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-01

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration Water Technology Trade Mission to India... Technology Trade Mission to India; February 28-March 4, 2011 Mission Description The United States Department... organizing a Water Technology Trade Mission to India from February 28 to March 4, 2011. The purpose of the...

Inequalities in Global Trade: A Cross-Country Comparison of Trade Network Position, Economic Wealth, Pollution and Mortality.

PubMed

Prell, Christina; Sun, Laixiang; Feng, Kuishuang; Myroniuk, Tyler W

2015-01-01

In this paper we investigate how structural patterns of international trade give rise to emissions inequalities across countries, and how such inequality in turn impact countries' mortality rates. We employ Multi-regional Input-Output analysis to distinguish between sulfur-dioxide (SO2) emissions produced within a country's boarders (production-based emissions) and emissions triggered by consumption in other countries (consumption-based emissions). We use social network analysis to capture countries' level of integration within the global trade network. We then apply the Prais-Winsten panel estimation technique to a panel data set across 172 countries over 20 years (1990-2010) to estimate the relationships between countries' level of integration and SO2 emissions, and the impact of trade integration and SO2 emission on mortality rates. Our findings suggest a positive, (log-) linear relationship between a country's level of integration and both kinds of emissions. In addition, although more integrated countries are mainly responsible for both forms of emissions, our findings indicate that they also tend to experience lower mortality rates. Our approach offers a unique combination of social network analysis with multiregional input-output analysis, which better operationalizes intuitive concepts about global trade and trade structure.

The trade of virtual water: do property rights matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ankai

2016-04-01

My paper examines the determinants of the virtual water trade - embodied in the trade of agriculture products - by estimating a structural gravity model. In particular, it tests the relationship between property rights and the export of water-intensive agricultural products based on water footprint data in Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2011, 2012). Using two different measures of property rights protection, I show that countries with weaker property rights have an apparent comparative advantage in the trade of water-intensive products. After controlling for the economic size, natural resource endowments, and possible effects of reverse causality, the trade flow of virtual water is negatively and significantly correlated with the property rights index of the exporting country. Holding other factors constant, one point increase in the property rights index of a country is associated with a 24% - 36% decrease in its virtual water export, whereas a 1% increase in the natural resource protection index of a country is associated with a 16% decrease in its virtual water export. This paper is the first empirical work that tests the relationship between property rights and trade of water-intensive products, offering a new perceptive in the debate of virtual water trade. The findings provide a possible explanation on the paradoxical evidence that some countries with scarce water resources export water-intensive products. The result is important not only in terms of its theoretical relevance, but also its policy implications. As prescribed by the model of trade and property rights, when countries with weaker property rights open to international trade, they are more likely to over-exploit and thus expedite the depletion of natural resources.

Randomizing bipartite networks: the case of the World Trade Web.

PubMed

Saracco, Fabio; Di Clemente, Riccardo; Gabrielli, Andrea; Squartini, Tiziano

2015-06-01

Within the last fifteen years, network theory has been successfully applied both to natural sciences and to socioeconomic disciplines. In particular, bipartite networks have been recognized to provide a particularly insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks in ecology to trade networks in economy, whence the need of a pattern detection-oriented analysis in order to identify statistically-significant structural properties. Such an analysis rests upon the definition of suitable null models, i.e. upon the choice of the portion of network structure to be preserved while randomizing everything else. However, quite surprisingly, little work has been done so far to define null models for real bipartite networks. The aim of the present work is to fill this gap, extending a recently-proposed method to randomize monopartite networks to bipartite networks. While the proposed formalism is perfectly general, we apply our method to the binary, undirected, bipartite representation of the World Trade Web, comparing the observed values of a number of structural quantities of interest with the expected ones, calculated via our randomization procedure. Interestingly, the behavior of the World Trade Web in this new representation is strongly different from the monopartite analogue, showing highly non-trivial patterns of self-organization.

Organ trade using social networks.

PubMed

Alrogy, Waleed; Jawdat, Dunia; Alsemari, Muhannad; Alharbi, Abdulrahman; Alasaad, Abdullah; Hajeer, Ali H

2016-01-01

Organ transplantation is recognized worldwide as an effective treatment for organ failure. However, due to the increase in the number of patients requiring a transplant, a shortage of suitable organs for transplantation has become a global problem. Human organ trade is an illegal practice of buying or selling organs and is universally sentenced. The aim of this study was to search social network for organ trade and offerings in Saudi Arabia. The study was conducted from June 22, 2015 to February 19, 2016. The search was conducted on Twitter, Google answers, and Facebook using the following terms: kidney for sale, kidneys for sale, liver for sale, kidney wanted, liver wanted, kidney donor, and liver donor. We found a total of 557 adverts on organ trade, 165 (30%) from donors or sellers, and 392 (70%) from recipients or buyers. On Twitter, we found 472 (85%) adverts, on Google answers 61 (11%), and on Facebook 24 (4%). Organ trade is a global problem, and yet it is increasingly seen in many countries. Although the Saudi Center for Organ Transplantation by-laws specifically prohibits and monitors any form of commercial transplantation, it is still essential to enforce guidelines for medical professionals to detect and prevent such criminal acts.

Inequalities in Global Trade: A Cross-Country Comparison of Trade Network Position, Economic Wealth, Pollution and Mortality

PubMed Central

Prell, Christina; Sun, Laixiang; Feng, Kuishuang; Myroniuk, Tyler W.

2015-01-01

In this paper we investigate how structural patterns of international trade give rise to emissions inequalities across countries, and how such inequality in turn impact countries’ mortality rates. We employ Multi-regional Input-Output analysis to distinguish between sulfur-dioxide (SO2) emissions produced within a country’s boarders (production-based emissions) and emissions triggered by consumption in other countries (consumption-based emissions). We use social network analysis to capture countries’ level of integration within the global trade network. We then apply the Prais-Winsten panel estimation technique to a panel data set across 172 countries over 20 years (1990–2010) to estimate the relationships between countries’ level of integration and SO2 emissions, and the impact of trade integration and SO2 emission on mortality rates. Our findings suggest a positive, (log-) linear relationship between a country’s level of integration and both kinds of emissions. In addition, although more integrated countries are mainly responsible for both forms of emissions, our findings indicate that they also tend to experience lower mortality rates. Our approach offers a unique combination of social network analysis with multiregional input-output analysis, which better operationalizes intuitive concepts about global trade and trade structure. PMID:26642202

Quantitative methods of identifying the key nodes in the illegal wildlife trade network

PubMed Central

Patel, Nikkita Gunvant; Rorres, Chris; Joly, Damien O.; Brownstein, John S.; Boston, Ray; Levy, Michael Z.; Smith, Gary

2015-01-01

Innovative approaches are needed to combat the illegal trade in wildlife. Here, we used network analysis and a new database, HealthMap Wildlife Trade, to identify the key nodes (countries) that support the illegal wildlife trade. We identified key exporters and importers from the number of shipments a country sent and received and from the number of connections a country had to other countries over a given time period. We used flow betweenness centrality measurements to identify key intermediary countries. We found the set of nodes whose removal from the network would cause the maximum disruption to the network. Selecting six nodes would fragment 89.5% of the network for elephants, 92.3% for rhinoceros, and 98.1% for tigers. We then found sets of nodes that would best disseminate an educational message via direct connections through the network. We would need to select 18 nodes to reach 100% of the elephant trade network, 16 nodes for rhinoceros, and 10 for tigers. Although the choice of locations for interventions should be customized for the animal and the goal of the intervention, China was the most frequently selected country for network fragmentation and information dissemination. Identification of key countries will help strategize illegal wildlife trade interventions. PMID:26080413

Research of negotiation in network trade system based on multi-agent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jun; Wang, Guozheng; Wu, Haiyan

2009-07-01

A construction and implementation technology of network trade based on multi-agent is described in this paper. First, we researched the technology of multi-agent, then we discussed the consumer's behaviors and the negotiation between purchaser and bargainer which emerges in the traditional business mode and analysed the key technology to implement the network trade system. Finally, we implement the system.

Network Implementation Trade-Offs in Existing Homes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiser, Gerd

2013-03-01

The ever-increasing demand for networking of high-bandwidth services in existing homes has resulted in several options for implementing an in-home network. Among the options are power-line communication techniques, twisted-pair copper wires, wireless links, and plastic or glass optical fibers. Whereas it is easy to install high-bandwidth optical fibers during the construction of new living units, retrofitting of existing homes with networking capabilities requires some technology innovations. This article addresses some trade-offs that need to be made on what transmission media can be retrofitted most effectively in existing homes.

A theoretical model of water and trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dang, Qian; Konar, Megan; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Lin, Xiaowen; Zeng, Ruijie

2016-03-01

Water is an essential input for agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of agricultural commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that emphasizes four tradeoffs involving water-use decision-making that are important yet not always considered in a consistent framework. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different economic sectors. A second tradeoff examines the possibility that certain types of agricultural investments can offset water use. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using commodities. The fourth tradeoff concerns how variability in water supplies influences farmer decision-making. We show conditions under which trade liberalization affect water use. Two policy scenarios to reduce water use are evaluated. First, we derive a target tax that reduces water use without offsetting the gains from trade liberalization, although important tradeoffs exist between economic performance and resource use. Second, we show how subsidization of water-saving technologies can allow producers to use less water without reducing agricultural production, making such subsidization an indirect means of influencing water use decision-making. Finally, we outline conditions under which riskiness of water availability affects water use. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

Modelling trading networks and the role of trust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrio, Rafael A.; Govezensky, Tzipe; Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Élfego; Kaski, Kimmo K.

2017-04-01

We present a simple dynamical model for describing trading interactions between agents in a social network by considering only two dynamical variables, namely money and goods or services, that are assumed conserved over the whole time span of the agents' trading transactions. A key feature of the model is that agent-to-agent transactions are governed by the price in units of money per goods, which is dynamically changing, and by a trust variable, which is related to the trading history of each agent. All agents are able to sell or buy, and the decision to do either has to do with the level of trust the buyer has in the seller, the price of the goods and the amount of money and goods at the disposal of the buyer. Here we show the results of extensive numerical calculations under various initial conditions in a random network of agents and compare the results with the available related data. In most cases the agreement between the model results and real data turns out to be fairly good, which allow us to draw some general conclusions as how different trading strategies could affect the distribution of wealth in different kinds of societies. Our calculations reveal the striking effects of trust in commercial relations, namely that trust makes trading links more robust and the wealth distribution more even as well as allows for the existence of a healthy middle class.

A water market simulator considering pair-wise trades between agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskova, I.; Erfani, T.; Harou, J. J.

2012-04-01

In many basins in England no further water abstraction licences are available. Trading water between water rights holders has been recognized as a potentially effective and economically efficient strategy to mitigate increasing scarcity. A screening tool that could assess the potential for trade through realistic simulation of individual water rights holders would help assess the solution's potential contribution to local water management. We propose an optimisation-driven water market simulator that predicts pair-wise trade in a catchment and represents its interaction with natural hydrology and engineered infrastructure. A model is used to emulate licence-holders' willingness to engage in short-term trade transactions. In their simplest form agents are represented using an economic benefit function. The working hypothesis is that trading behaviour can be partially predicted based on differences in marginal values of water over space and time and estimates of transaction costs on pair-wise trades. We discuss the further possibility of embedding rules, norms and preferences of the different water user sectors to more realistically represent the behaviours, motives and constraints of individual licence holders. The potential benefits and limitations of such a social simulation (agent-based) approach is contrasted with our simulator where agents are driven by economic optimization. A case study based on the Dove River Basin (UK) demonstrates model inputs and outputs. The ability of the model to suggest impacts of water rights policy reforms on trading is discussed.

Embedded resource accounting for coupled natural-human systems: An application to water resource impacts of the western U.S. electrical energy trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruddell, Benjamin L.; Adams, Elizabeth A.; Rushforth, Richard; Tidwell, Vincent C.

2014-10-01

In complex coupled natural-human systems (CNH), multitype networks link social, environmental, and economic systems with flows of matter, energy, information, and value. Embedded Resource Accounting (ERA) is a systems analysis framework that includes the indirect connections of a multitype CNH network. ERA is conditioned on perceived system boundaries, which may vary according to the accountant's point of view. Both direct and indirect impacts are implicit whenever two subnetworks interact in such a system; the ratio of two subnetworks' impacts is the embedded intensity. For trade in the services of water, this is understood as the indirect component of a water footprint, and as "virtual water" trade. ERA is a generalization of input-output, footprint, and substance flow methods, and is a type of life cycle analysis. This paper presents results for the water and electrical energy system in the western U.S. This system is dominated by California, which outsources the majority of its water footprint of electrical energy. Electricity trade increases total water consumption for electricity production in the western U.S. by 15% and shifts water use to water-stressed Colorado River Basin States. A systemic underaccounting for water footprints occurs because state-level processes discount a portion of the water footprint occurring outside of the state boundary.

The effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on crop-related green and blue water footprints and inter-regional virtual water trade: A study for China (1978-2008).

PubMed

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-05-01

Previous studies into the relation between human consumption and indirect water resources use have unveiled the remote connections in virtual water (VW) trade networks, which show how communities externalize their water footprint (WF) to places far beyond their own region, but little has been done to understand variability in time. This study quantifies the effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on WF and VW trade, using China over the period 1978-2008 as a case study. Evapotranspiration, crop yields and green and blue WFs of crops are estimated at a 5 × 5 arc-minute resolution for 22 crops, for each year in the study period, thus accounting for climate variability. The results show that crop yield improvements during the study period helped to reduce the national average WF of crop consumption per capita by 23%, with a decreasing contribution to the total from cereals and increasing contribution from oil crops. The total consumptive WFs of national crop consumption and crop production, however, grew by 6% and 7%, respectively. By 2008, 28% of total water consumption in crop fields in China served the production of crops for export to other regions and, on average, 35% of the crop-related WF of a Chinese consumer was outside its own province. Historically, the net VW within China was from the water-rich South to the water-scarce North, but intensifying North-to-South crop trade reversed the net VW flow since 2000, which amounted 6% of North's WF of crop production in 2008. South China thus gradually became dependent on food supply from the water-scarce North. Besides, during the whole study period, China's domestic inter-regional VW flows went dominantly from areas with a relatively large to areas with a relatively small blue WF per unit of crop, which in 2008 resulted in a trade-related blue water loss of 7% of the national total blue WF of crop production. The case of China shows that domestic trade, as governed by

Comparison of weighted and unweighted network analysis in the case of a pig trade network in Northern Germany.

PubMed

Büttner, Kathrin; Krieter, Joachim

2018-08-01

The analysis of trade networks as well as the spread of diseases within these systems focuses mainly on pure animal movements between farms. However, additional data included as edge weights can complement the informational content of the network analysis. However, the inclusion of edge weights can also alter the outcome of the network analysis. Thus, the aim of the study was to compare unweighted and weighted network analyses of a pork supply chain in Northern Germany and to evaluate the impact on the centrality parameters. Five different weighted network versions were constructed by adding the following edge weights: number of trade contacts, number of delivered livestock, average number of delivered livestock per trade contact, geographical distance and reciprocal geographical distance. Additionally, two different edge weight standardizations were used. The network observed from 2013 to 2014 contained 678 farms which were connected by 1,018 edges. General network characteristics including shortest path structure (e.g. identical shortest paths, shortest path lengths) as well as centrality parameters for each network version were calculated. Furthermore, the targeted and the random removal of farms were performed in order to evaluate the structural changes in the networks. All network versions and edge weight standardizations revealed the same number of shortest paths (1,935). Between 94.4 to 98.9% of the unweighted network and the weighted network versions were identical. Furthermore, depending on the calculated centrality parameters and the edge weight standardization used, it could be shown that the weighted network versions differed from the unweighted network (e.g. for the centrality parameters based on ingoing trade contacts) or did not differ (e.g. for the centrality parameters based on the outgoing trade contacts) with regard to the Spearman Rank Correlation and the targeted removal of farms. The choice of standardization method as well as the inclusion or

Evolving dynamics of trading behavior based on coordination game in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, Yue-tang; Xu, Lu; Li, Jin-sheng

2016-05-01

This work concerns the modeling of evolvement of trading behavior in stock markets. Based on the assumption of the investors' limited rationality, the evolution mechanism of trading behavior is modeled according to the investment strategy of coordination game in network, that investors are prone to imitate their neighbors' activity through comprehensive analysis on the risk dominance degree of certain investment behavior, the network topology of their relationship and its heterogeneity. We investigate by mean-field analysis and extensive simulations the evolution of investors' trading behavior in various typical networks under different risk dominance degree of investment behavior. Our results indicate that the evolution of investors' behavior is affected by the network structure of stock market and the effect of risk dominance degree of investment behavior; the stability of equilibrium states of investors' behavior dynamics is directly related with the risk dominance degree of some behavior; connectivity and heterogeneity of the network plays an important role in the evolution of the investment behavior in stock market.

Design and research on the platform of network manufacture product electronic trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Zude; Liu, Quan; Jiang, Xuemei

2003-09-01

With the rapid globalization of market and business, E-trading affects every manufacture enterprise. However, the security of network manufacturing products of transmission on Internet is very important. In this paper we discussed the protocol of fair exchange and platform for network manufacture products E-trading based on fair exchange protocol and digital watermarking techniques. The platform realized reliable and copyright protection.

Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct world trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermann, Leonardo; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

2015-04-01

Using the United Nations COMTRADE database [United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, available at: http://comtrade.un.org/db/. Accessed November (2014)] we construct the Google matrix G of multiproduct world trade between the UN countries and analyze the properties of trade flows on this network for years 1962-2010. This construction, based on Markov chains, treats all countries on equal democratic grounds independently of their richness and at the same time it considers the contributions of trade products proportionally to their trade volume. We consider the trade with 61 products for up to 227 countries. The obtained results show that the trade contribution of products is asymmetric: some of them are export oriented while others are import oriented even if the ranking by their trade volume is symmetric in respect to export and import after averaging over all world countries. The construction of the Google matrix allows to investigate the sensitivity of trade balance in respect to price variations of products, e.g. petroleum and gas, taking into account the world connectivity of trade links. The trade balance based on PageRank and CheiRank probabilities highlights the leading role of China and other BRICS countries in the world trade in recent years. We also show that the eigenstates of G with large eigenvalues select specific trade communities.

International Trade Modelling Using Open Flow Networks: A Flow-Distance Based Analysis.

PubMed

Shen, Bin; Zhang, Jiang; Li, Yixiao; Zheng, Qiuhua; Li, Xingsen

2015-01-01

This paper models and analyzes international trade flows using open flow networks (OFNs) with the approaches of flow distances, which provide a novel perspective and effective tools for the study of international trade. We discuss the establishment of OFNs of international trade from two coupled viewpoints: the viewpoint of trading commodity flow and that of money flow. Based on the novel model with flow distance approaches, meaningful insights are gained. First, by introducing the concepts of trade trophic levels and niches, countries' roles and positions in the global supply chains (or value-added chains) can be evaluated quantitatively. We find that the distributions of trading "trophic levels" have the similar clustering pattern for different types of commodities, and summarize some regularities between money flow and commodity flow viewpoints. Second, we find that active and competitive countries trade a wide spectrum of products, while inactive and underdeveloped countries trade a limited variety of products. Besides, some abnormal countries import many types of goods, which the vast majority of countries do not need to import. Third, harmonic node centrality is proposed and we find the phenomenon of centrality stratification. All the results illustrate the usefulness of the model of OFNs with its network approaches for investigating international trade flows.

International Trade Modelling Using Open Flow Networks: A Flow-Distance Based Analysis

PubMed Central

Shen, Bin; Zhang, Jiang; Li, Yixiao; Zheng, Qiuhua; Li, Xingsen

2015-01-01

This paper models and analyzes international trade flows using open flow networks (OFNs) with the approaches of flow distances, which provide a novel perspective and effective tools for the study of international trade. We discuss the establishment of OFNs of international trade from two coupled viewpoints: the viewpoint of trading commodity flow and that of money flow. Based on the novel model with flow distance approaches, meaningful insights are gained. First, by introducing the concepts of trade trophic levels and niches, countries’ roles and positions in the global supply chains (or value-added chains) can be evaluated quantitatively. We find that the distributions of trading “trophic levels” have the similar clustering pattern for different types of commodities, and summarize some regularities between money flow and commodity flow viewpoints. Second, we find that active and competitive countries trade a wide spectrum of products, while inactive and underdeveloped countries trade a limited variety of products. Besides, some abnormal countries import many types of goods, which the vast majority of countries do not need to import. Third, harmonic node centrality is proposed and we find the phenomenon of centrality stratification. All the results illustrate the usefulness of the model of OFNs with its network approaches for investigating international trade flows. PMID:26569618

Unveiling correlations between financial variables and topological metrics of trading networks: Evidence from a stock and its warrant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ming-Xia; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-02-01

Traders develop and adopt different trading strategies attempting to maximize their profits in financial markets. These trading strategies not only result in specific topological structures in trading networks, which connect the traders with the pairwise buy-sell relationships, but also have potential impacts on market dynamics. Here, we present a detailed analysis on how the market behaviors are correlated with the structures of traders in trading networks based on audit trail data for the Baosteel stock and its warrant at the transaction level from 22 August 2005 to 23 August 2006. In our investigation, we divide each trade day into 48 rolling time windows with a length of 5 min, construct a trading network within each window, and obtain a time series of over 11,600 trading networks. We find that there are strongly simultaneous correlations between the topological metrics (including network centralization, assortative index, and average path length) of trading networks that characterize the patterns of order execution and the financial variables (including return, volatility, intertrade duration, and trading volume) for the stock and its warrant. Our analysis may shed new lights on how the microscopic interactions between elements within complex system affect the system's performance.

Virtual CO2 Emission Flows in the Global Electricity Trade Network.

PubMed

Qu, Shen; Li, Yun; Liang, Sai; Yuan, Jiahai; Xu, Ming

2018-06-05

Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions due to electricity consumption is crucial for climate mitigation in the electric power sector. Current practices primarily use production-based emission factors to quantify emissions for electricity consumption, assuming production and consumption of electricity take place within the same region. The increasingly intensified cross-border electricity trade complicates the accounting for emissions of electricity consumption. This study employs a network approach to account for the flows in the whole electricity trade network to estimate CO 2 emissions of electricity consumption for 137 major countries/regions in 2014. Results show that in some countries, especially those in Europe and Southern Africa, the impacts of electricity trade on the estimation of emission factors and embodied emissions are significant. The changes made to emission factors by considering intergrid electricity trade can have significant implications for emission accounting and climate mitigation when multiplied by total electricity consumption of the corresponding countries/regions.

Baseline requirements can hinder trades in water quality trading programs: Evidence from the Conestoga watershed.

PubMed

Ghosh, Gaurav; Ribaudo, Marc; Shortle, James

2011-08-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are promoting point/nonpoint trading as a way of reducing the costs of meeting water quality goals. Farms can create offsets by implementing management practices such as conservation tillage, nutrient management and buffer strips. To be eligible to sell offsets or credits, farmers must first comply with baseline requirements. USEPA guidance recommends that the baseline for nonpoint sources be management practices that are consistent with the water quality goal. A farmer would not be able to create offsets until the minimum practice standards are met. An alternative baseline is those practices being implemented at the time the trading program starts, or when the farmer enters the program. The selection of the baseline affects the efficiency and equity of the trading program. It has major implications for which farmers benefit from trading, the cost of nonpoint source offsets, and ultimately the number of offsets that nonpoint sources can sell to regulated point sources. We use a simple model of the average profit-maximizing dairy farmer operating in the Conestoga watershed in Pennsylvania to evaluate the implications of baseline requirements on the cost and quantity of offsets that can be produced for sale in a water quality trading market, and which farmers benefit most from trading. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Trade-offs between robustness and small-world effect in complex networks

PubMed Central

Peng, Guan-Sheng; Tan, Suo-Yi; Wu, Jun; Holme, Petter

2016-01-01

Robustness and small-world effect are two crucial structural features of complex networks and have attracted increasing attention. However, little is known about the relation between them. Here we demonstrate that, there is a conflicting relation between robustness and small-world effect for a given degree sequence. We suggest that the robustness-oriented optimization will weaken the small-world effect and vice versa. Then, we propose a multi-objective trade-off optimization model and develop a heuristic algorithm to obtain the optimal trade-off topology for robustness and small-world effect. We show that the optimal network topology exhibits a pronounced core-periphery structure and investigate the structural properties of the optimized networks in detail. PMID:27853301

Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

2015-12-01

The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

Virtual water trade and time scales for loss of water sustainability: a comparative regional analysis.

PubMed

Goswami, Prashant; Nishad, Shiv Narayan

2015-03-20

Assessment and policy design for sustainability in primary resources like arable land and water need to adopt long-term perspective; even small but persistent effects like net export of water may influence sustainability through irreversible losses. With growing consumption, this virtual water trade has become an important element in the water sustainability of a nation. We estimate and contrast the virtual (embedded) water trades of two populous nations, India and China, to present certain quantitative measures and time scales. Estimates show that export of embedded water alone can lead to loss of water sustainability. With the current rate of net export of water (embedded) in the end products, India is poised to lose its entire available water in less than 1000 years; much shorter time scales are implied in terms of water for production. The two cases contrast and exemplify sustainable and non-sustainable virtual water trade in long term perspective.

Virtual water trade and time scales for loss of water sustainability: A comparative regional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, Prashant; Nishad, Shiv Narayan

2015-03-01

Assessment and policy design for sustainability in primary resources like arable land and water need to adopt long-term perspective; even small but persistent effects like net export of water may influence sustainability through irreversible losses. With growing consumption, this virtual water trade has become an important element in the water sustainability of a nation. We estimate and contrast the virtual (embedded) water trades of two populous nations, India and China, to present certain quantitative measures and time scales. Estimates show that export of embedded water alone can lead to loss of water sustainability. With the current rate of net export of water (embedded) in the end products, India is poised to lose its entire available water in less than 1000 years; much shorter time scales are implied in terms of water for production. The two cases contrast and exemplify sustainable and non-sustainable virtual water trade in long term perspective.

Virtual water flows in the international trade of agricultural products of China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Zhang, Jinhe; Tang, Guorong; Chen, Min; Wang, Lachun

2016-07-01

With the rapid development of the economy and population, water scarcity and poor water quality caused by water pollution have become increasingly severe in China. Virtual water trade is a useful tool to alleviate water shortage. This paper focuses on a comprehensive study of China's international virtual water flows from agricultural products trade and completes a diachronic analysis from 2001 to 2013. The results show that China was in trade surplus in relation to the virtual water trade of agricultural products. The exported virtual water amounted to 29.94billionm(3)/yr. while 155.55billionm(3)/yr. was embedded in imported products. The trend that China exported virtual water per year was on the decline while the imported was on a rising trend. Virtual water trade of China was highly concentrated. Not all of the exported products had comparative advantages in virtual water content. Imported products were excessively concentrated on water intensive agricultural products such as soya beans, cotton, and palm oil. The exported virtual water mainly flowed to the Republic of Korea, Hong Kong of China and Japan, while the imported mainly flowed from the United States of America, Brazil and Argentina. From the ethical point of view, the trade partners were classified into four types in terms of "net import" and "water abundance": mutual benefit countries, such as Australia and Canada; unilateral benefit countries, such as Mongolia and Norway; supported countries, such as Egypt and Singapore; and double pressure countries, such as India and Pakistan. Virtual water strategy refers to water resources, agricultural products and human beings. The findings are beneficial for innovating water resources management system, adjusting trade structure, ensuring food security in China, and promoting the construction of national ecological security system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the electricity intensity of evolving water supply mixes: the case of California’s water network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes-Draut, Jennifer; Taptich, Michael; Kavvada, Olga; Horvath, Arpad

2017-11-01

Climate change is making water supply less predictable, even unreliable, in parts of the world. Urban water providers, especially in already arid areas, will need to diversify their water resources by switching to alternative sources and negotiating trading agreements to create more resilient and interdependent networks. The increasing complexity of these networks will likely require more operational electricity. The ability to document, visualize, and analyze water-energy relationships will be critical to future water planning, especially as data needed to conduct the analyses become increasingly available. We have developed a network model and decision-support tool, WESTNet, to perform these tasks. Herein, WESTNet was used to analyze a model of California’s 2010 urban water network as well as the projected system for 2020 and 2030. Results for California’s ten hydrologic regions show that the average number of water sources per utility and total electricity consumption for supplying water will increase in spite of decreasing per-capita water consumption. Electricity intensity (kWh m-3) will increase in arid regions of the state due to shifts to alternative water sources such as indirect potable water reuse, desalination, and water transfers. In wetter, typically less populated, regions, reduced water demand for electricity-intensive supplies will decrease the electricity intensity of the water supply mix, though total electricity consumption will increase due to urban population growth. The results of this study provide a baseline for comparing current and potential innovations to California’s water system. The WESTNet tool can be applied to diverse water systems in any geographic region at a variety of scales to evaluate an array of network-dependent water-energy parameters.

Intra-EU agricultural trade, virtual water flows and policy implications.

PubMed

Antonelli, M; Tamea, S; Yang, H

2017-06-01

The development of approaches to tackle the European Union (EU) water-related challenges and shift towards sustainable water management and use is one of the main objectives of Horizon 2020, the EU strategy to lead a smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. The EU is an increasingly water challenged area and is a major agricultural trader. As agricultural trade entails an exchange of water embodied in goods as a factor of production, this study investigates the region's water-food-trade nexus by analysing intra-regional virtual water trade (VWT) in agricultural products. The analysed period (1993-2011) comprises the enactment of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the year 2000. Aspects of the VWT that are relevant for the WFD are explored. The EU is a net importer of virtual water (VW) from the rest of the world, but intra-regional VWT represents 46% of total imports and 75% of total exports. Five countries account for 60% of total VW imports (Germany, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Belgium) and 65% of total VW exports (The Netherlands, France, Germany, Belgium and Spain). Intra-EU VWT more than doubled over the period considered, while trade with extra-EU countries did not show such a marked trend. In the same period, blue VWT increased significantly within the region and net import from the rest of the world slightly decreased. Water scarce countries, such as Spain and Italy, are major exporters of blue water in the region. The traded volumes of VW have been increasing almost monotonically over the years, and with a substantial increase after 2000. The overall trend in changes in VWT does not seem to be in accordance with the WFD goals. This study demonstrated that VWT analyses can help evaluate intertwining effects of water, agriculture and trade policies which are often made separately in respective sectors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtuous and vicious virtual water trade with application to Italy.

PubMed

Winter, Julia Anna; Allamano, Paola; Claps, Pierluigi

2014-01-01

The current trade of agricultural goods, with connections involving all continents, entails for global exchanges of "virtual" water, i.e. water used in the production process of alimentary products, but not contained within. Each trade link translates into a corresponding virtual water trade, allowing quantification of import and export fluxes of virtual water. The assessment of the virtual water import for a given nation, compared to the national consumption, could give an approximate idea of the country's reliance on external resources from the food and the water resources point of view. A descriptive approach to the understanding of a nation's degree of dependency from overseas food and water resources is first proposed, and indices of water trade virtuosity, as opposed to inefficiency, are devised. Such indices are based on the concepts of self-sufficiency and relative export, computed systematically on all products from the FAOSTAT database, taking Italy as the first case study. Analysis of time series of the self-sufficiency and relative export can demonstrate effects of market tendencies and influence water-related policies at the international level. The goal of this approach is highlighting incongruent terms in the virtual water balances by the viewpoint of single products. Specific products, which are here referred to as "swap products", are in fact identified as those that lead to inefficiencies in the virtual water balance due to their contemporaneously high import and export. The inefficiencies due to the exchanges of the same products between two nations are calculated in terms of virtual water volumes. Furthermore, the cases of swap products are investigated by computing two further indexes denoting the ratio of virtual water exchanged in the swap and the ratio of the economic values of the swapped products. The analysis of these figures can help examine the reasons behind the swap phenomenon in trade.

Offline constraints in online drug marketplaces: An exploratory analysis of a cryptomarket trade network.

PubMed

Norbutas, Lukas

2018-06-01

Cryptomarkets, or illegal anonymizing online platforms that facilitate drug trade, have been analyzed in a rapidly growing body of research. Previous research has found that, despite increased risks, cryptomarket sellers are often willing to ship illegal drugs internationally. There is little to no information, however, about the extent to which uncertainty and risk related to geographic constraints shapes buyers' behavior and, in turn, the structure of the global online drug trade network. In this paper, we analyze the structure of a complete cryptomarket trade network with a focus on the role of geographic clustering of buyers and sellers. We use publicly available crawls of the cryptomarket Abraxas, encompassing market transactions between 463 sellers and 3542 buyers of drugs in 2015. We use descriptive social network analysis and Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to analyze the structure of the trade network. The structure of the online drug trade network is primarily shaped by geographical boundaries. Buyers are more likely to buy from multiple sellers within a single country, and avoid buying from sellers in different countries, which leads to strong geographic clustering. The effect is especially strong between continents and weaker for countries within Europe. A small fraction of buyers (10%) account for more than a half of all drug purchases, while most buyers only buy once. Online drug trade networks might still be heavily shaped by offline (geographic) constraints, despite their ability to provide access for end-users to large international supply. Cryptomarkets might be more "localized" and less international than thought before. We discuss potential explanations for such geographical clustering and implications of the findings. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtual water trade and time scales for loss of water sustainability: A comparative regional analysis

PubMed Central

Goswami, Prashant; Nishad, Shiv Narayan

2015-01-01

Assessment and policy design for sustainability in primary resources like arable land and water need to adopt long-term perspective; even small but persistent effects like net export of water may influence sustainability through irreversible losses. With growing consumption, this virtual water trade has become an important element in the water sustainability of a nation. We estimate and contrast the virtual (embedded) water trades of two populous nations, India and China, to present certain quantitative measures and time scales. Estimates show that export of embedded water alone can lead to loss of water sustainability. With the current rate of net export of water (embedded) in the end products, India is poised to lose its entire available water in less than 1000 years; much shorter time scales are implied in terms of water for production. The two cases contrast and exemplify sustainable and non-sustainable virtual water trade in long term perspective. PMID:25790964

Understanding the poultry trade network in Kenya: Implications for regional disease prevention and control.

PubMed

McCarron, Margaret; Munyua, Peninah; Cheng, Po-Yung; Manga, Thomas; Wanjohi, Cathryn; Moen, Ann; Mounts, Anthony; Katz, Mark A

2015-07-01

Infectious diseases in poultry can spread quickly and lead to huge economic losses. In the past decade, on multiple continents, the accelerated spread of highly pathogenic avian Influenza A (H5N1) virus, often through informal trade networks, has led to the death and culling of hundreds of millions of poultry. Endemic poultry diseases like Newcastle disease and fowl typhoid can also be devastating in many parts of the world. Understanding trade networks in unregulated systems can inform policy decisions concerning disease prevention and containment. From June to December 2008 we conducted a cross-sectional survey of backyard farmers, market traders, and middlemen in 5/8 provinces in Kenya. We administered a standardized questionnaire to each type of actor using convenience, random, snowball, and systematic sampling. Questionnaires addressed frequency, volume, and geography of trade, as well as biosecurity practices. We created a network diagram identifying the most important locations for trade. Of 380 respondents, 51% were backyard farmers, 24% were middlemen and 25% were market traders. Half (50%) of backyard farmers said they raised poultry both for household consumption and for sale. Compared to market traders, middlemen bought their poultry from a greater number of villages (median 4.2 villages for middlemen vs. 1.9 for market traders). Traders were most likely to purchase poultry from backyard farmers. Of the backyard farmers who sold poultry, 51% [CI 40-63] reported selling poultry to market traders, and 54% [CI 44-63] sold to middlemen. Middlemen moved the largest volume of poultry on a weekly basis (median purchases: 187 birds/week [IQR 206]; median sales: 188 birds/week [IQR 412.5]). The highest numbers of birds were traded in Nairobi - Kenya's capital city. Nairobi was the most prominent trading node in the network (61 degrees of centrality). Many smaller sub-networks existed as a result of clustered local trade. Market traders were also integral to the

The use of nodes attributes in social network analysis with an application to an international trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Andrade, Ricardo Lopes; Rêgo, Leandro Chaves

2018-02-01

The social network analysis (SNA) studies the interactions among actors in a network formed through some relationship (friendship, cooperation, trade, among others). The SNA is constantly approached from a binary point of view, i.e., it is only observed if a link between two actors is present or not regardless of the strength of this link. It is known that different information can be obtained in weighted and unweighted networks and that the information extracted from weighted networks is more accurate and detailed. Another rarely discussed approach in the SNA is related to the individual attributes of the actors (nodes), because such analysis is usually focused on the topological structure of networks. Features of the nodes are not incorporated in the SNA what implies that there is some loss or misperception of information in those analyze. This paper aims at exploring more precisely the complexities of a social network, initially developing a method that inserts the individual attributes in the topological structure of the network and then analyzing the network in four different ways: unweighted, edge-weighted and two methods for using both edge-weights and nodes' attributes. The international trade network was chosen in the application of this approach, where the nodes represent the countries, the links represent the cash flow in the trade transactions and countries' GDP were chosen as nodes' attributes. As a result, it is possible to observe which countries are most connected in the world economy and with higher cash flows, to point out the countries that are central to the intermediation of the wealth flow and those that are most benefited from being included in this network. We also made a principal component analysis to study which metrics are more influential in describing the data variability, which turn out to be mostly the weighted metrics which include the nodes' attributes.

A history of trade routes and water-level regulation on waterways in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, Victoria G.; LaBounty, Andrew E.

2018-01-01

Unlike most national parks, main access to Voyageurs National Park is by boat. This remote system of interconnected waterways along the USA-Canada border was an important transportation route for thousands of years of American Indian occupation, leading up to and including the trade route of the voyageurs, or French-Canadian fur traders from around 1680 to 1870. The Ojibwe people collaborated with the voyageurs and the two cultures developed a trade network that continued to rely on these waterways. By the mid-1800s, European fashion changed, and the fur trade dwindled while the Ojibwe remained tied to the land and waters. The complexity of the waterways increased with the installation of dams on two of the natural lakes in the early 1900s. Modern water levels have affected—and in some cases destabilized—vulnerable landforms within the past century. The knowledge of these effects can be used by resource managers to weigh the consequences of hydrologic manipulation in Voyageurs National Park.

Aflatoxin Regulations in a Network of Global Maize Trade

PubMed Central

Wu, Felicia; Guclu, Hasan

2012-01-01

Worldwide, food supplies often contain unavoidable contaminants, many of which adversely affect health and hence are subject to regulations of maximum tolerable levels in food. These regulations differ from nation to nation, and may affect patterns of food trade. We soughtto determine whether there is an association between nations' food safety regulations and global food trade patterns, with implications for public health and policymaking. We developed a network model of maize trade around the world. From maize import/export data for 217 nations from 2000–2009, we calculated basic statistics on volumes of trade; then examined how regulations of aflatoxin, a common contaminant of maize, are similar or different between pairs of nations engaging in significant amounts of maize trade. Globally, market segregation appears to occur among clusters of nations. The United States is at the center of one cluster; European countries make up another cluster with hardly any maize trade with the US; and Argentina, Brazil, and China export maize all over the world. Pairs of nations trading large amounts of maize have very similar aflatoxin regulations: nations with strict standards tend to trade maize with each other, while nations with more relaxed standards tend to trade maize with each other. Rarely among the top pairs of maize-trading nations do total aflatoxin standards (standards based on the sum of the levels of aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2) differ by more than 5 µg/kg. These results suggest that, globally, separate maize trading communities emerge; and nations tend to trade with other nations that have very similar food safety standards. PMID:23049773

Optimal allocation of physical water resources integrated with virtual water trade in water scarce regions: A case study for Beijing, China.

PubMed

Ye, Quanliang; Li, Yi; Zhuo, La; Zhang, Wenlong; Xiong, Wei; Wang, Chao; Wang, Peifang

2018-02-01

This study provides an innovative application of virtual water trade in the traditional allocation of physical water resources in water scarce regions. A multi-objective optimization model was developed to optimize the allocation of physical water and virtual water resources to different water users in Beijing, China, considering the trade-offs between economic benefit and environmental impacts of water consumption. Surface water, groundwater, transferred water and reclaimed water constituted the physical resource of water supply side, while virtual water flow associated with the trade of five major crops (barley, corn, rice, soy and wheat) and three livestock products (beef, pork and poultry) in agricultural sector (calculated by the trade quantities of products and their virtual water contents). Urban (daily activities and public facilities), industry, environment and agriculture (products growing) were considered in water demand side. As for the traditional allocation of physical water resources, the results showed that agriculture and urban were the two predominant water users (accounting 54% and 28%, respectively), while groundwater and surface water satisfied around 70% water demands of different users (accounting 36% and 34%, respectively). When considered the virtual water trade of eight agricultural products in water allocation procedure, the proportion of agricultural consumption decreased to 45% in total water demand, while the groundwater consumption decreased to 24% in total water supply. Virtual water trade overturned the traditional components of water supplied from different sources for agricultural consumption, and became the largest water source in Beijing. Additionally, it was also found that environmental demand took a similar percentage of water consumption in each water source. Reclaimed water was the main water source for industrial and environmental users. The results suggest that physical water resources would mainly satisfy the consumption

Trade-offs between driving nodes and time-to-control in complex networks

PubMed Central

Pequito, Sérgio; Preciado, Victor M.; Barabási, Albert-László; Pappas, George J.

2017-01-01

Recent advances in control theory provide us with efficient tools to determine the minimum number of driving (or driven) nodes to steer a complex network towards a desired state. Furthermore, we often need to do it within a given time window, so it is of practical importance to understand the trade-offs between the minimum number of driving/driven nodes and the minimum time required to reach a desired state. Therefore, we introduce the notion of actuation spectrum to capture such trade-offs, which we used to find that in many complex networks only a small fraction of driving (or driven) nodes is required to steer the network to a desired state within a relatively small time window. Furthermore, our empirical studies reveal that, even though synthetic network models are designed to present structural properties similar to those observed in real networks, their actuation spectra can be dramatically different. Thus, it supports the need to develop new synthetic network models able to replicate controllability properties of real-world networks. PMID:28054597

Trade-offs between driving nodes and time-to-control in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pequito, Sérgio; Preciado, Victor M.; Barabási, Albert-László; Pappas, George J.

2017-01-01

Recent advances in control theory provide us with efficient tools to determine the minimum number of driving (or driven) nodes to steer a complex network towards a desired state. Furthermore, we often need to do it within a given time window, so it is of practical importance to understand the trade-offs between the minimum number of driving/driven nodes and the minimum time required to reach a desired state. Therefore, we introduce the notion of actuation spectrum to capture such trade-offs, which we used to find that in many complex networks only a small fraction of driving (or driven) nodes is required to steer the network to a desired state within a relatively small time window. Furthermore, our empirical studies reveal that, even though synthetic network models are designed to present structural properties similar to those observed in real networks, their actuation spectra can be dramatically different. Thus, it supports the need to develop new synthetic network models able to replicate controllability properties of real-world networks.

76 FR 28117 - Order of Suspension of Trading; City Network, Inc.

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-13

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] Order of Suspension of Trading; City Network, Inc. May 11, 2011. It appears to the Securities and Exchange Commission that there is a lack of current and accurate information concerning the securities of City Network, Inc. because it has not filed...

Feeding humanity through global food trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Odorico, Paolo; Carr, Joel A.; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca; Vandoni, Stefano

2014-09-01

The recent intensification of international trade has led to a globalization of food commodities and to an increased disconnection between human populations and the land and water resources that support them through crop and livestock production. Several countries are not self-sufficient and depend on imports from other regions. Despite the recognized importance of the role of trade in global and regional food security, the societal reliance on domestic production and international trade remains poorly quantified. Here we investigate the global patterns of food trade and evaluate the dependency of food security on imports. We investigate the relationship existing between the trade of food calories and the virtual transfer of water used for their production. We show how the amount of food calories traded in the international market has more than doubled between 1986 and 2009, while the number of links in the trade network has increased by more than 50%. Likewise, global food production has increased by more than 50% in the same period, providing an amount of food that is overall sufficient to support the global population at a rate of 2700-3000 kcal per person per day. About 23% of the food produced for human consumption is traded internationally. The water use efficiency of food trade (i.e., food calories produced per unit volume of water used) has declined in the last few decades. The water use efficiency of food production overall increases with the countries' affluence; this trend is likely due to the use of more advanced technology.

Structural vulnerability of the French swine industry trade network to the spread of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Rautureau, S; Dufour, B; Durand, B

2012-07-01

The networks generated by live animal movements are the principal vector for the propagation of infectious agents between farms, and their topology strongly affects how fast a disease may spread. The structural characteristics of networks may thus provide indicators of network vulnerability to the spread of infectious disease. This study applied social network analysis methods to describe the French swine trade network. Initial analysis involved calculating several parameters to characterize networks and then identifying high-risk subgroups of holdings for different time scales. Holding-specific centrality measurements ('degree', 'betweenness' and 'ingoing infection chain'), which summarize the place and the role of holdings in the network, were compared according to the production type. In addition, network components and communities, areas where connectedness is particularly high and could influence the speed and the extent of a disease, were identified and analysed. Dealer holdings stood out because of their high centrality values suggesting that these holdings may control the flow of animals in part of the network. Herds with growing units had higher values for degree and betweenness centrality, representing central positions for both spreading and receiving disease, whereas herds with finishing units had higher values for in-degree and ingoing infection chain centrality values and appeared more vulnerable with many contacts through live animal movements and thus at potentially higher risk for introduction of contagious diseases. This reflects the dynamics of the swine trade with downward movements along the production chain. But, the significant heterogeneity of farms with several production units did not reveal any particular type of production for targeting disease surveillance or control. Besides, no giant strong connected component was observed, the network being rather organized according to communities of small or medium size (<20% of network size

Quantifying Impacts of Food Trade on Water Availability Considering Water Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Yano, S.; Hanasaki, N.

2012-12-01

Food production requires a lot of water, and traded food potentially has external impacts on environment through reducing the water availability in the producing region. Water footprint is supposed to be an indicator to reflect the impacts of water use. However, impacts of water use on environment, resource, and sustainability are different in place and time, and according to the sources of water withdrawals. Therefore it is preferable to characterize the water withdrawals or consumptions rather than just accumulate the total amount of water use when estimating water footprint. In this study, a new methodology, global green-water equivalent method, is proposed in which regional characterization factors are determined based on the estimates of natural hydrological cycles, such as precipitation, total runoff, and sub-surface runoff, and applied for green-water, river(+reservoir) water, and non-renewable ground water uses. Water footprint of the world associated with the production of 19 major crops was estimated using an integrated hydrological and water resources modeling system (H08), with atmospheric forcing data for 1991-2000 with spatial resolution of 0.5 by 0.5 longitudinal and latitudinal degrees. The impacts is estimated to be 6 times larger than the simple summation of green and blue water uses, and reflect the climatological water scarcity conditions geographically. The results can be used to compare the possible impacts of food trade associated with various crops from various regions on environment through reducing the availability of water resources in the cropping area.

NONPOINT SOURCES AND WATER QUALITY TRADING

EPA Science Inventory

Management of nonpoint sources (NPS) of nutrients may reduce discharge levels more cost effectively than can additional controls on point sources (PS); water quality trading (WQT), where a PS buys nutrient or sediment reductions from an NPS, may be an alternative means for the PS...

Virtual water trade of agricultural products: A new perspective to explore the Belt and Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Zhang, Jin-He; Tian, Qing; Liu, Ze-Hua; Zhang, Hong-Lei

2018-05-01

The Belt and Road is an initiative of cooperation and development that was proposed by China. Moreover, most of the spanning countries faced water shortages and agriculture consumed a lot of water. Virtual water links water, food and trade and is an effective tool to ease water shortages. Therefore, this paper aims to understand the Belt and Road from the new perspective of virtual water trade of agricultural products. We considered agricultural products trade from 2001 to 2015. On the whole, the results indicated that China was in virtual water trade surplus with the countries along the Belt and Road. However, in terms of each country, >40 spanning countries were in virtual water trade surplus with China and eased water shortages. Russia had the largest net imported virtual water from China. Furthermore, the proportion of the grey water footprint that China exported to the spanning countries was much higher than that imported, no matter from the whole or different geographical regions. Moreover, more than half of the countries' virtual water trade with China conformed to the virtual water strategy, which helped to ease water crises. Furthermore, the products that they exported to China were mainly advantageous products that each spanning countries have. Virtual water trade is a new perspective to explore the Belt and Road. Agricultural products trade with China definitely benefits both the countries along the Belt and Road and China from the perspective of virtual water. The findings are beneficial for the water management of the countries along the Belt and Road and China, alleviating water shortages, encouraging the rational allocation of water resources in the various departments. They can provide references for optimizing trade structures as well. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of financial crises in the world trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askari, Marziyeh; Shirazi, Homayoun; Aghababaei Samani, Keivan

2018-07-01

A simple dynamical model is introduced to simulate the spreading of financial crises in the world trade network. In this model a directed network is constructed in which a weighted and directed link indicates the export value between two countries. The weights are subject to the change by a simple dynamical rule. The process begins with a crisis, i.e. a sudden decrease in the export value of a certain country and spreads throughout the whole network. We compare our results with the real values corresponding to the global financial crisis of 2008 and show that the results of our model are in good agreement with reality.

International energy trade impacts on water resource crises: an embodied water flows perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J. C.; Zhong, R.; Zhao, P.; Zhang, H. W.; Wang, Y.; Mao, G. Z.

2016-07-01

Water and energy are coupled in intimate ways (Siddiqi and Anadon 2011 Energy Policy 39 4529-40), which is amplified by international energy trade. The study shows that the total volume of energy related international embodied water flows averaged 6298 Mm3 yr-1 from 1992-2010, which represents 10% of the water used for energy production including oil, coal, gas and electricity production. This study calculates embodied water import and export status of 219 countries from 1992 to 2010 and embodied water flow changes of seven regions over time (1992/2000/2010). In addition, the embodied water net export risk-crisis index and net embodied water import benefit index are established. According to the index system, 33 countries export vast amounts of water who have a water shortage, which causes water risk and crisis related to energy trade. While 29 countries abate this risk due to their rich water resource, 45 countries import embodied water linked to energy imports. Based on the different status of countries studied, the countries were classified into six groups with different policy recommendations.

The Rise of China in the International Trade Network: A Community Core Detection Approach

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zhen; Cerina, Federica; Chessa, Alessandro; Caldarelli, Guido; Riccaboni, Massimo

2014-01-01

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of complex systems ranging from biology to computer science and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995–2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. We provide a multilevel description of the evolution of the network where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) and the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members) are related. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a simple dynamic-edge-weight mechanism. PMID:25136895

The rise of China in the International Trade Network: a community core detection approach.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhen; Cerina, Federica; Chessa, Alessandro; Caldarelli, Guido; Riccaboni, Massimo

2014-01-01

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of complex systems ranging from biology to computer science and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. We provide a multilevel description of the evolution of the network where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) and the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members) are related. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a simple dynamic-edge-weight mechanism.

A geovisual analytic approach to understanding geo-social relationships in the international trade network.

PubMed

Luo, Wei; Yin, Peifeng; Di, Qian; Hardisty, Frank; MacEachren, Alan M

2014-01-01

The world has become a complex set of geo-social systems interconnected by networks, including transportation networks, telecommunications, and the internet. Understanding the interactions between spatial and social relationships within such geo-social systems is a challenge. This research aims to address this challenge through the framework of geovisual analytics. We present the GeoSocialApp which implements traditional network analysis methods in the context of explicitly spatial and social representations. We then apply it to an exploration of international trade networks in terms of the complex interactions between spatial and social relationships. This exploration using the GeoSocialApp helps us develop a two-part hypothesis: international trade network clusters with structural equivalence are strongly 'balkanized' (fragmented) according to the geography of trading partners, and the geographical distance weighted by population within each network cluster has a positive relationship with the development level of countries. In addition to demonstrating the potential of visual analytics to provide insight concerning complex geo-social relationships at a global scale, the research also addresses the challenge of validating insights derived through interactive geovisual analytics. We develop two indicators to quantify the observed patterns, and then use a Monte-Carlo approach to support the hypothesis developed above.

A Geovisual Analytic Approach to Understanding Geo-Social Relationships in the International Trade Network

PubMed Central

Luo, Wei; Yin, Peifeng; Di, Qian; Hardisty, Frank; MacEachren, Alan M.

2014-01-01

The world has become a complex set of geo-social systems interconnected by networks, including transportation networks, telecommunications, and the internet. Understanding the interactions between spatial and social relationships within such geo-social systems is a challenge. This research aims to address this challenge through the framework of geovisual analytics. We present the GeoSocialApp which implements traditional network analysis methods in the context of explicitly spatial and social representations. We then apply it to an exploration of international trade networks in terms of the complex interactions between spatial and social relationships. This exploration using the GeoSocialApp helps us develop a two-part hypothesis: international trade network clusters with structural equivalence are strongly ‘balkanized’ (fragmented) according to the geography of trading partners, and the geographical distance weighted by population within each network cluster has a positive relationship with the development level of countries. In addition to demonstrating the potential of visual analytics to provide insight concerning complex geo-social relationships at a global scale, the research also addresses the challenge of validating insights derived through interactive geovisual analytics. We develop two indicators to quantify the observed patterns, and then use a Monte-Carlo approach to support the hypothesis developed above. PMID:24558409

Global Maize Trade and Food Security: Implications from a Social Network Model

PubMed Central

Wu, Felicia; Guclu, Hasan

2013-01-01

In this study, we developed a social network model of the global trade of maize: one of the most important food, feed, and industrial crops worldwide, and critical to food security. We used this model to analyze patterns of maize trade among nations, and to determine where vulnerabilities in food security might arise if maize availability were decreased due to factors such as diversion to non-food uses, climatic factors, or plant diseases. Using data on imports and exports from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database for each year from 2000 to 2009 inclusive, we summarized statistics on volumes of maize trade between pairs of nations for 217 nations. There is evidence of market segregation among clusters of nations; with three prominent clusters representing Europe, Brazil and Argentina, and the United States. The United States is by far the largest exporter of maize worldwide, while Japan and the Republic of Korea are the largest maize importers. In particular, the star-shaped cluster of the network that represents US maize trade to other nations indicates the potential for food security risks because of the lack of trade these other nations conduct with other maize exporters. If a scenario arose in which US maize could not be exported in as large quantities, maize supplies in many nations could be jeopardized. We discuss this in the context of recent maize ethanol production and its attendant impacts on food prices elsewhere worldwide. PMID:23656551

Global maize trade and food security: implications from a social network model.

PubMed

Wu, Felicia; Guclu, Hasan

2013-12-01

In this study, we developed a social network model of the global trade of maize: one of the most important food, feed, and industrial crops worldwide, and critical to food security. We used this model to analyze patterns of maize trade among nations, and to determine where vulnerabilities in food security might arise if maize availability was decreased due to factors such as diversion to nonfood uses, climatic factors, or plant diseases. Using data on imports and exports from the U.N. Commodity Trade Statistics Database for each year from 2000 to 2009 inclusive, we summarized statistics on volumes of maize trade between pairs of nations for 217 nations. There is evidence of market segregation among clusters of nations; with three prominent clusters representing Europe, Brazil and Argentina, and the United States. The United States is by far the largest exporter of maize worldwide, whereas Japan and the Republic of Korea are the largest maize importers. In particular, the star-shaped cluster of the network that represents U.S. maize trade to other nations indicates the potential for food security risks because of the lack of trade these other nations conduct with other maize exporters. If a scenario arose in which U.S. maize could not be exported in as large quantities, maize supplies in many nations could be jeopardized. We discuss this in the context of recent maize ethanol production and its attendant impacts on food prices elsewhere worldwide. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Trends of the World Input and Output Network of Global Trade

PubMed Central

del Río-Chanona, Rita María; Grujić, Jelena; Jeldtoft Jensen, Henrik

2017-01-01

The international trade naturally maps onto a complex networks. Theoretical analysis of this network gives valuable insights about the global economic system. Although different economic data sets have been investigated from the network perspective, little attention has been paid to its dynamical behaviour. Here we take the World Input Output Data set, which has values of the annual transactions between 40 different countries of 35 different sectors for the period of 15 years, and infer the time interdependence between countries and sectors. As a measure of interdependence we use correlations between various time series of the network characteristics. First we form 15 primary networks for each year of the data we have, where nodes are countries and links are annual exports from one country to the other. Then we calculate the strengths (weighted degree) and PageRank of each country in each of the 15 networks for 15 different years. This leads to sets of time series and by calculating the correlations between these we form a secondary network where the links are the positive correlations between different countries or sectors. Furthermore, we also form a secondary network where the links are negative correlations in order to study the competition between countries and sectors. By analysing this secondary network we obtain a clearer picture of the mutual influences between countries. As one might expect, we find that political and geographical circumstances play an important role. However, the derived correlation network reveals surprising aspects which are hidden in the primary network. Sometimes countries which belong to the same community in the original network are found to be competitors in the secondary networks. E.g. Spain and Portugal are always in the same trade flow community, nevertheless secondary network analysis reveal that they exhibit contrary time evolution. PMID:28125656

Trends of the World Input and Output Network of Global Trade.

PubMed

Del Río-Chanona, Rita María; Grujić, Jelena; Jeldtoft Jensen, Henrik

2017-01-01

The international trade naturally maps onto a complex networks. Theoretical analysis of this network gives valuable insights about the global economic system. Although different economic data sets have been investigated from the network perspective, little attention has been paid to its dynamical behaviour. Here we take the World Input Output Data set, which has values of the annual transactions between 40 different countries of 35 different sectors for the period of 15 years, and infer the time interdependence between countries and sectors. As a measure of interdependence we use correlations between various time series of the network characteristics. First we form 15 primary networks for each year of the data we have, where nodes are countries and links are annual exports from one country to the other. Then we calculate the strengths (weighted degree) and PageRank of each country in each of the 15 networks for 15 different years. This leads to sets of time series and by calculating the correlations between these we form a secondary network where the links are the positive correlations between different countries or sectors. Furthermore, we also form a secondary network where the links are negative correlations in order to study the competition between countries and sectors. By analysing this secondary network we obtain a clearer picture of the mutual influences between countries. As one might expect, we find that political and geographical circumstances play an important role. However, the derived correlation network reveals surprising aspects which are hidden in the primary network. Sometimes countries which belong to the same community in the original network are found to be competitors in the secondary networks. E.g. Spain and Portugal are always in the same trade flow community, nevertheless secondary network analysis reveal that they exhibit contrary time evolution.

EPA/USDA Water Quality Trading Partnership Agreement

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The document details an agreement between the U. S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency on collaboration efforts to establish viable water quality credit trading markets.

A large-scale study of a poultry trading network in Bangladesh: implications for control and surveillance of avian influenza viruses.

PubMed

Moyen, N; Ahmed, G; Gupta, S; Tenzin, T; Khan, R; Khan, T; Debnath, N; Yamage, M; Pfeiffer, D U; Fournie, G

2018-01-12

Since its first report in 2007, avian influenza (AI) has been endemic in Bangladesh. While live poultry marketing is widespread throughout the country and known to influence AI dissemination and persistence, trading patterns have not been described. The aim of this study is to assess poultry trading practices and features of the poultry trading networks which could promote AI spread, and their potential implications for disease control and surveillance. Data on poultry trading practices was collected from 849 poultry traders during a cross-sectional survey in 138 live bird markets (LBMs) across 17 different districts of Bangladesh. The quantity and origins of traded poultry were assessed for each poultry type in surveyed LBMs. The network of contacts between farms and LBMs resulting from commercial movements of live poultry was constructed to assess its connectivity and to identify the key premises influencing it. Poultry trading practices varied according to the size of the LBMs and to the type of poultry traded. Industrial broiler chickens, the most commonly traded poultry, were generally sold in LBMs close to their production areas, whereas ducks and backyard chickens were moved over longer distances, and their transport involved several intermediates. The poultry trading network composed of 445 nodes (73.2% were LBMs) was highly connected and disassortative. However, the removal of only 5.6% of the nodes (25 LBMs with the highest betweenness scores), reduced the network's connectedness, and the maximum size of output and input domains by more than 50%. Poultry types need to be discriminated in order to understand the way in which poultry trading networks are shaped, and the level of risk of disease spread that these networks may promote. Knowledge of the network structure could be used to target control and surveillance interventions to a small number of LBMs.

Water resources conservation and nitrogen pollution reduction under global food trade and agricultural intensification.

PubMed

Liu, Wenfeng; Yang, Hong; Liu, Yu; Kummu, Matti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y; Liu, Junguo; Schulin, Rainer

2018-08-15

Global food trade entails virtual flows of agricultural resources and pollution across countries. Here we performed a global-scale assessment of impacts of international food trade on blue water use, total water use, and nitrogen (N) inputs and on N losses in maize, rice, and wheat production. We simulated baseline conditions for the year 2000 and explored the impacts of an agricultural intensification scenario, in which low-input countries increase N and irrigation inputs to a greater extent than high-input countries. We combined a crop model with the Global Trade Analysis Project model. Results show that food exports generally occurred from regions with lower water and N use intensities, defined here as water and N uses in relation to crop yields, to regions with higher resources use intensities. Globally, food trade thus conserved a large amount of water resources and N applications, and also substantially reduced N losses. The trade-related conservation in blue water use reached 85km 3 y -1 , accounting for more than half of total blue water use for producing the three crops. Food exported from the USA contributed the largest proportion of global water and N conservation as well as N loss reduction, but also led to substantial export-associated N losses in the country itself. Under the intensification scenario, the converging water and N use intensities across countries result in a more balanced world; crop trade will generally decrease, and global water resources conservation and N pollution reduction associated with the trade will reduce accordingly. The study provides useful information to understand the implications of agricultural intensification for international crop trade, crop water use and N pollution patterns in the world. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtual Water Scarcity Risk to the Global Trade System.

PubMed

Qu, Shen; Liang, Sai; Konar, Megan; Zhu, Zeqi; Chiu, Anthony S F; Jia, Xiaoping; Xu, Ming

2018-01-16

Local water scarcity risk (LWSR, meaning potential economic output losses in water-using sectors due to physical water scarcity) can be transmitted to downstream economies through the globalized supply chains. To understand the vulnerability of the global economy to water scarcity, we examine the impacts of local water scarcity risk on the global trade system from 1995 to 2009. We observe increasingly intensified geographical separation between physical water scarcity and production losses due to water scarcity. We identify top nation-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk (VWSR) exports (indicating local water scarcity risk in each nation transmitted to foreign nations through its exports), including agriculture and utilities in major economies such as China, India, Spain, France, and Turkey. These nation-sectors are critical to the resilience of the global economy to water scarcity. We also identify top nation-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk imports (indicating each nation's vulnerability to foreign water scarcity risk through the global trade system), highlighting their vulnerability to distant water scarcity. Our findings reveal the need for nations to collaboratively manage and conserve water resources, and lay the foundation for firms in high VWSR-importing sectors to develop strategies to mitigate such risk.

Grand canonical validation of the bipartite international trade network.

PubMed

Straka, Mika J; Caldarelli, Guido; Saracco, Fabio

2017-08-01

Devising strategies for economic development in a globally competitive landscape requires a solid and unbiased understanding of countries' technological advancements and similarities among export products. Both can be addressed through the bipartite representation of the International Trade Network. In this paper, we apply the recently proposed grand canonical projection algorithm to uncover country and product communities. Contrary to past endeavors, our methodology, based on information theory, creates monopartite projections in an unbiased and analytically tractable way. Single links between countries or products represent statistically significant signals, which are not accounted for by null models such as the bipartite configuration model. We find stable country communities reflecting the socioeconomic distinction in developed, newly industrialized, and developing countries. Furthermore, we observe product clusters based on the aforementioned country groups. Our analysis reveals the existence of a complicated structure in the bipartite International Trade Network: apart from the diversification of export baskets from the most basic to the most exclusive products, we observe a statistically significant signal of an export specialization mechanism towards more sophisticated products.

Grand canonical validation of the bipartite international trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straka, Mika J.; Caldarelli, Guido; Saracco, Fabio

2017-08-01

Devising strategies for economic development in a globally competitive landscape requires a solid and unbiased understanding of countries' technological advancements and similarities among export products. Both can be addressed through the bipartite representation of the International Trade Network. In this paper, we apply the recently proposed grand canonical projection algorithm to uncover country and product communities. Contrary to past endeavors, our methodology, based on information theory, creates monopartite projections in an unbiased and analytically tractable way. Single links between countries or products represent statistically significant signals, which are not accounted for by null models such as the bipartite configuration model. We find stable country communities reflecting the socioeconomic distinction in developed, newly industrialized, and developing countries. Furthermore, we observe product clusters based on the aforementioned country groups. Our analysis reveals the existence of a complicated structure in the bipartite International Trade Network: apart from the diversification of export baskets from the most basic to the most exclusive products, we observe a statistically significant signal of an export specialization mechanism towards more sophisticated products.

Impact of a U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement on the Texas Highway Network

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-07-01

The study examines the effect that increased trade with Mexico, as a result of the passage of NAFTA, will have on the Texas highway network. A dominant portion of overland trade between the U.S. and Mexico travels through Texas. Exports to and import...

Efficient Interruption of Infection Chains by Targeted Removal of Central Holdings in an Animal Trade Network

PubMed Central

Büttner, Kathrin; Krieter, Joachim; Traulsen, Arne; Traulsen, Imke

2013-01-01

Centrality parameters in animal trade networks typically have right-skewed distributions, implying that these networks are highly resistant against the random removal of holdings, but vulnerable to the targeted removal of the most central holdings. In the present study, we analysed the structural changes of an animal trade network topology based on the targeted removal of holdings using specific centrality parameters in comparison to the random removal of holdings. Three different time periods were analysed: the three-year network, the yearly and the monthly networks. The aim of this study was to identify appropriate measures for the targeted removal, which lead to a rapid fragmentation of the network. Furthermore, the optimal combination of the removal of three holdings regardless of their centrality was identified. The results showed that centrality parameters based on ingoing trade contacts, e.g. in-degree, ingoing infection chain and ingoing closeness, were not suitable for a rapid fragmentation in all three time periods. More efficient was the removal based on parameters considering the outgoing trade contacts. In all networks, a maximum percentage of 7.0% (on average 5.2%) of the holdings had to be removed to reduce the size of the largest component by more than 75%. The smallest difference from the optimal combination for all three time periods was obtained by the removal based on out-degree with on average 1.4% removed holdings, followed by outgoing infection chain and outgoing closeness. The targeted removal using the betweenness centrality differed the most from the optimal combination in comparison to the other parameters which consider the outgoing trade contacts. Due to the pyramidal structure and the directed nature of the pork supply chain the most efficient interruption of the infection chain for all three time periods was obtained by using the targeted removal based on out-degree. PMID:24069293

Spatial Dynamics of the Communities and the Role of Major Countries in the International Rare Earths Trade: A Complex Network Analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Xibo; Ge, Jianping; Wei, Wendong; Li, Hanshi; Wu, Chen; Zhu, Ge

2016-01-01

Rare earths (RE) are critical materials in many high-technology products. Due to the uneven distribution and important functions for industrial development, most countries import RE from a handful of suppliers that are rich in RE, such as China. However, because of the rapid growth of RE exploitation and pollution of the mining and production process, some of the main suppliers have gradually tended to reduce the RE production and exports. Especially in the last decade, international RE trade has been changing in the trade community and trade volume. Based on complex network theory, we built an unweighted and weighted network to explore the evolution of the communities and identify the role of the major countries in the RE trade. The results show that an international RE trade network was dispersed and unstable because of the existence of five to nine trade communities in the unweighted network and four to eight trade communities in the weighted network in the past 13 years. Moreover, trade groups formed due to the great influence of geopolitical relations. China was often associated with the South America and African countries in the same trade group. In addition, Japan, China, the United States, and Germany had the largest impacts on international RE trade from 2002 to 2014. Last, some policy suggestions were highlighted according to the results.

Spatial Dynamics of the Communities and the Role of Major Countries in the International Rare Earths Trade: A Complex Network Analysis

PubMed Central

Wang, Xibo; Ge, Jianping; Wei, Wendong; Li, Hanshi; Wu, Chen; Zhu, Ge

2016-01-01

Rare earths (RE) are critical materials in many high-technology products. Due to the uneven distribution and important functions for industrial development, most countries import RE from a handful of suppliers that are rich in RE, such as China. However, because of the rapid growth of RE exploitation and pollution of the mining and production process, some of the main suppliers have gradually tended to reduce the RE production and exports. Especially in the last decade, international RE trade has been changing in the trade community and trade volume. Based on complex network theory, we built an unweighted and weighted network to explore the evolution of the communities and identify the role of the major countries in the RE trade. The results show that an international RE trade network was dispersed and unstable because of the existence of five to nine trade communities in the unweighted network and four to eight trade communities in the weighted network in the past 13 years. Moreover, trade groups formed due to the great influence of geopolitical relations. China was often associated with the South America and African countries in the same trade group. In addition, Japan, China, the United States, and Germany had the largest impacts on international RE trade from 2002 to 2014. Last, some policy suggestions were highlighted according to the results. PMID:27137779

Mean field approximation for biased diffusion on Japanese inter-firm trading network.

PubMed

Watanabe, Hayafumi

2014-01-01

By analysing the financial data of firms across Japan, a nonlinear power law with an exponent of 1.3 was observed between the number of business partners (i.e. the degree of the inter-firm trading network) and sales. In a previous study using numerical simulations, we found that this scaling can be explained by both the money-transport model, where a firm (i.e. customer) distributes money to its out-edges (suppliers) in proportion to the in-degree of destinations, and by the correlations among the Japanese inter-firm trading network. However, in this previous study, we could not specifically identify what types of structure properties (or correlations) of the network determine the 1.3 exponent. In the present study, we more clearly elucidate the relationship between this nonlinear scaling and the network structure by applying mean-field approximation of the diffusion in a complex network to this money-transport model. Using theoretical analysis, we obtained the mean-field solution of the model and found that, in the case of the Japanese firms, the scaling exponent of 1.3 can be determined from the power law of the average degree of the nearest neighbours of the network with an exponent of -0.7.

ENCOURAGING THE USE OF WETLANDS IN WATER QUALITY TRADING PROGRAMS

EPA Science Inventory

The interest in water quality trading (WQT) has grown in recent years because of its potential to meet nutrient reduction goals at lower costs. However, one problem identified by researchers in most WQT programs has been few actual trades, usually associated with low numbers of ...

77 FR 36305 - Stream Communications Network & Media, Inc.; Order of Suspension of Trading

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-18

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] Stream Communications Network & Media, Inc.; Order of Suspension of Trading June 14, 2012. It appears to the Securities and Exchange Commission that... Network & Media, Inc. because it has not filed any periodic reports since the period ended December 31...

Issues in water quality trading: Introduction to featured collection

EPA Science Inventory

Water quality trading is a type of market mechanism for water pollution control. Policy makers have discovered that market mechanisms can play important roles in protecting and improving environmental quality by changing the economic signals an individual or firm faces. Potenti...

Virtual water trade of agri-food products: Evidence from italian-chinese relations.

PubMed

Lamastra, Lucrezia; Miglietta, Pier Paolo; Toma, Pierluigi; De Leo, Federica; Massari, Stefania

2017-12-01

At global scale, the majority of world water withdrawal is for the agricultural sector, with differences among countries depending on the relevance of agri-food sector in the economy. Virtual water and water footprint could be useful to express the impact on the water resources of each production process and good with the objective to lead to a sustainable use of water at a global level. International trade could be connected to the virtual water flows, in fact through commodities importation, water poor countries can save their own water resources. The present paper focuses on the bilateral virtual water flows connected to the top ten agri-food products traded between Italy and China. Comparing the virtual water flow related to the top 10 agri-food products, the virtual water flow from Italy to China is bigger than the water flow in the opposite direction. Moreover, the composition of virtual water flows is different; Italy imports significant amounts of grey water from China, depending on the different environmental strategies adopted by the two selected countries. This difference could be also related to the fact that traded commodities are very different; the 91% of virtual water imported by Italy is connected to crops products, while the 95% of virtual water imported by China is related to the animal products. Considering national water saving and global water saving, appears that Italy imports virtual water from China while China exerts pressure on its water resources to supply the exports to Italy. This result at global scale implies a global water loss of 129.29millionm3 because, in general, the agri-food products are traded from the area with lower water productivity to the area with the higher water productivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimizing the scale of markets for water quality trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, Martin W.; Patterson, Lauren A.; Chen, Yanyou; Schnier, Kurt E.; Yates, Andrew J.

2014-09-01

Applying market approaches to environmental regulations requires establishing a spatial scale for trading. Spatially large markets usually increase opportunities for abatement cost savings but increase the potential for pollution damages (hot spots), vice versa for spatially small markets. We develop a coupled hydrologic-economic modeling approach for application to point source emissions trading by a large number of sources and apply this approach to the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) within the watershed of the second largest estuary in the U.S. We consider two different administrative structures that govern the trade of emission permits: one-for-one trading (the number of permits required for each unit of emission is the same for every WWTP) and trading ratios (the number of permits required for each unit of emissions varies across WWTP). Results show that water quality regulators should allow trading to occur at the river basin scale as an appropriate first-step policy, as is being done in a limited number of cases via compliance associations. Larger spatial scales may be needed under conditions of increased abatement costs. The optimal scale of the market is generally the same regardless of whether one-for-one trading or trading ratios are employed.

National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.

PubMed

Abdelkader, A; Elshorbagy, A; Tuninetti, M; Laio, F; Ridolfi, L; Fahmy, H; Hoekstra, A Y

2018-10-15

This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The framework has two components: (1) a national water model that simulates agricultural, industrial and municipal water uses, and available water and land resources; and (2) an international virtual water trade model that captures national virtual water exports and imports related to trade in crops and animal products. This National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) modeling framework is applied to Egypt, a water-poor country and the world's largest importer of wheat. Egypt's food and water gaps and the country's food (virtual water) imports are estimated over a baseline period (1986-2013) and projected up to 2050 based on four scenarios. Egypt's food and water gaps are growing rapidly as a result of steep population growth and limited water resources. The NWFT modeling framework shows the nexus of the population dynamics, water uses for different sectors, and their compounding effects on Egypt's food gap and water self-sufficiency. The sensitivity analysis reveals that for solving Egypt's water and food problem non-water-based solutions like educational, health, and awareness programs aimed at lowering population growth will be an essential addition to the traditional water resources development solution. Both the national and the global models project similar trends of Egypt's food gap. The NWFT modeling framework can be easily adapted to other nations and regions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

76 FR 11203 - Water Technology Trade Mission to India

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-01

... for other uses. To address this issue, the government of India and the private sector have made... opportunities for U.S. companies that have expertise in these technologies. Mission Goals The goals of the Water Technology Trade Mission to India are to help U.S. water and waste water technology companies initiate and/or...

Water Resource Impacts Embedded in the Western US Electrical Energy Trade; Current Patterns and Adaptation to Future Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, E. A.; Herron, S.; Qiu, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Ruddell, B. L.

2013-12-01

Water resources are a key element in the global coupled natural-human (CNH) system, because they are tightly coupled with the world's social, environmental, and economic subsystems, and because water resources are under increasing pressure worldwide. A fundamental adaptive tool used especially by cities to overcome local water resource scarcity is the outsourcing of water resource impacts through substitutionary economic trade. This is generally understood as the indirect component of a water footprint, and as ';virtual water' trade. This work employs generalized CNH methods to reveal the trade in water resource impacts embedded in electrical energy within the Western US power grid, and utilizes a general equilibrium economic trade model combined with drought and demand growth constraints to estimate the future status of this trade. Trade in embedded water resource impacts currently increases total water used for electricity production in the Western US and shifts water use to more water-limited States. Extreme drought and large increases in electrical energy demand increase the need for embedded water resource impact trade, while motivating a shift to more water-efficient generation technologies and more water-abundant generating locations. Cities are the largest users of electrical energy, and in the 21st Century will outsource a larger fraction of their water resource impacts through trade. This trade exposes cities to risks associated with disruption of long-distance transmission and distant hydrological droughts.

Task and Participant Scheduling of Trading Platforms in Vehicular Participatory Sensing Networks

PubMed Central

Shi, Heyuan; Song, Xiaoyu; Gu, Ming; Sun, Jiaguang

2016-01-01

The vehicular participatory sensing network (VPSN) is now becoming more and more prevalent, and additionally has shown its great potential in various applications. A general VPSN consists of many tasks from task, publishers, trading platforms and a crowd of participants. Some literature treats publishers and the trading platform as a whole, which is impractical since they are two independent economic entities with respective purposes. For a trading platform in markets, its purpose is to maximize the profit by selecting tasks and recruiting participants who satisfy the requirements of accepted tasks, rather than to improve the quality of each task. This scheduling problem for a trading platform consists of two parts: which tasks should be selected and which participants to be recruited? In this paper, we investigate the scheduling problem in vehicular participatory sensing with the predictable mobility of each vehicle. A genetic-based trading scheduling algorithm (GTSA) is proposed to solve the scheduling problem. Experiments with a realistic dataset of taxi trajectories demonstrate that GTSA algorithm is efficient for trading platforms to gain considerable profit in VPSN. PMID:27916807

Task and Participant Scheduling of Trading Platforms in Vehicular Participatory Sensing Networks.

PubMed

Shi, Heyuan; Song, Xiaoyu; Gu, Ming; Sun, Jiaguang

2016-11-28

The vehicular participatory sensing network (VPSN) is now becoming more and more prevalent, and additionally has shown its great potential in various applications. A general VPSN consists of many tasks from task, publishers, trading platforms and a crowd of participants. Some literature treats publishers and the trading platform as a whole, which is impractical since they are two independent economic entities with respective purposes. For a trading platform in markets, its purpose is to maximize the profit by selecting tasks and recruiting participants who satisfy the requirements of accepted tasks, rather than to improve the quality of each task. This scheduling problem for a trading platform consists of two parts: which tasks should be selected and which participants to be recruited? In this paper, we investigate the scheduling problem in vehicular participatory sensing with the predictable mobility of each vehicle. A genetic-based trading scheduling algorithm (GTSA) is proposed to solve the scheduling problem. Experiments with a realistic dataset of taxi trajectories demonstrate that GTSA algorithm is efficient for trading platforms to gain considerable profit in VPSN.

EVALUATING POINT-NONPOINT SOURCE WATER QUALITY TRADING IN A RARITAN RIVER BASIN SUB-WATERSHED

EPA Science Inventory

This project addresses water quality issues in the Raritan River Basin of New Jersey. It will build upon an existing study that determined the technical feasibility of implementing a point-nonpoint source water quality trading program in the Basin. Water quality trading is ...

Application of an Environmental Decision Support System to a Water Quality Trading Program Affected by Surface Water Diversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obropta, Christopher C.; Niazi, Mehran; Kardos, Josef S.

2008-12-01

Environmental decision support systems (EDSSs) are an emerging tool used to integrate the evaluation of highly complex and interrelated physicochemical, biological, hydrological, social, and economic aspects of environmental problems. An EDSS approach is developed to address hot-spot concerns for a water quality trading program intended to implement the total maximum daily load (TMDL) for phosphorus in the Non-Tidal Passaic River Basin of New Jersey. Twenty-two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) spread throughout the watershed are considered the major sources of phosphorus loading to the river system. Periodic surface water diversions to a major reservoir from the confluence of two key tributaries alter the natural hydrology of the watershed and must be considered in the development of a trading framework that ensures protection of water quality. An EDSS is applied that enables the selection of a water quality trading framework that protects the watershed from phosphorus-induced hot spots. The EDSS employs Simon’s (1960) three stages of the decision-making process: intelligence, design, and choice. The identification of two potential hot spots and three diversion scenarios enables the delineation of three management areas for buying and selling of phosphorus credits among WWTPs. The result shows that the most conservative option entails consideration of two possible diversion scenarios, and trading between management areas is restricted accordingly. The method described here is believed to be the first application of an EDSS to a water quality trading program that explicitly accounts for surface water diversions.

Modeling the live-pig trade network in Georgia: Implications for disease prevention and control

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Live pig trade patterns, drivers and characteristics, particularly in backyard predominant systems, remain largely unexplored despite their important contribution to the spread of infectious diseases in the swine industry. A better understanding of the pig trade dynamics can inform the implementation of risk-based and more cost-effective prevention and control programs for swine diseases. In this study, a semi-structured questionnaire elaborated by FAO and implemented to 487 farmers was used to collect data regarding basic characteristics about pig demographics and live-pig trade among villages in the country of Georgia, where very scarce information is available. Social network analysis and exponential random graph models were used to better understand the structure, contact patterns and main drivers for pig trade in the country. Results indicate relatively infrequent (a total of 599 shipments in one year) and geographically localized (median Euclidean distance between shipments = 6.08 km; IQR = 0–13.88 km) pig movements in the studied regions. The main factors contributing to live-pig trade movements among villages were being from the same region (i.e., local trade), usage of a middleman or a live animal market to trade live pigs by at least one farmer in the village, and having a large number of pig farmers in the village. The identified villages’ characteristics and structural network properties could be used to inform the design of more cost-effective surveillance systems in a country which pig industry was recently devastated by African swine fever epidemics and where backyard production systems are predominant. PMID:28599000

Modeling the live-pig trade network in Georgia: Implications for disease prevention and control.

PubMed

Kukielka, Esther Andrea; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Beltrán-Alcrudo, Daniel

2017-01-01

Live pig trade patterns, drivers and characteristics, particularly in backyard predominant systems, remain largely unexplored despite their important contribution to the spread of infectious diseases in the swine industry. A better understanding of the pig trade dynamics can inform the implementation of risk-based and more cost-effective prevention and control programs for swine diseases. In this study, a semi-structured questionnaire elaborated by FAO and implemented to 487 farmers was used to collect data regarding basic characteristics about pig demographics and live-pig trade among villages in the country of Georgia, where very scarce information is available. Social network analysis and exponential random graph models were used to better understand the structure, contact patterns and main drivers for pig trade in the country. Results indicate relatively infrequent (a total of 599 shipments in one year) and geographically localized (median Euclidean distance between shipments = 6.08 km; IQR = 0-13.88 km) pig movements in the studied regions. The main factors contributing to live-pig trade movements among villages were being from the same region (i.e., local trade), usage of a middleman or a live animal market to trade live pigs by at least one farmer in the village, and having a large number of pig farmers in the village. The identified villages' characteristics and structural network properties could be used to inform the design of more cost-effective surveillance systems in a country which pig industry was recently devastated by African swine fever epidemics and where backyard production systems are predominant.

Complexity of the international agro-food trade network and its impact on food safety.

PubMed

Ercsey-Ravasz, Mária; Toroczkai, Zoltán; Lakner, Zoltán; Baranyi, József

2012-01-01

With the world's population now in excess of 7 billion, it is vital to ensure the chemical and microbiological safety of our food, while maintaining the sustainability of its production, distribution and trade. Using UN databases, here we show that the international agro-food trade network (IFTN), with nodes and edges representing countries and import-export fluxes, respectively, has evolved into a highly heterogeneous, complex supply-chain network. Seven countries form the core of the IFTN, with high values of betweenness centrality and each trading with over 77% of all the countries in the world. Graph theoretical analysis and a dynamic food flux model show that the IFTN provides a vehicle suitable for the fast distribution of potential contaminants but unsuitable for tracing their origin. In particular, we show that high values of node betweenness and vulnerability correlate well with recorded large food poisoning outbreaks.

Foreign trade and pollution: the case of South China water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Hui; Ai, Danxiang; Lin, Yuling

2017-01-01

With rapid economic growth, South China has to face the most serious water pollution. However, whether or not such kind of water pollution is mainly caused by foreign trade is questionable. And, how the trade mode will be changed by pollution and corresponding regulation is also uncertain. In this paper, a fully endogenous model, which integrate economic growth, energy use and pollution, is designed to interpret the interrelation among these key variables in South China. Through this model, a new possibility of water environment Kuznets curve change has been investigated. Attribute to mixed two stage feasible general least square estimation method, we conclude that foreign trade has strong influence on environment change rate and the turning point. It can make the virtuous circle of between economic growth and environment improvement come early or later in different circumstances. Export and import play different role in such process and have counter effects on environment.

Analyses of impacts of China's international trade on its water resources and uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z. Y.; Yang, H.; Shi, M. J.; Zehnder, A. J. B.; Abbaspour, K. C.

2011-04-01

This study provides an insight into the impact of China's international trade of goods and services on its water resources and uses. Virtual water flows associated with China's international trade are quantified in an input-output framework. The analysis is scaled down to the sectoral and provincial levels to trace the origins and destinations of virtual water flows associated with the international trade. The results reveal that China is a net virtual water exporter of 4.7 × 1010 m3 year-1, accounting for 2.1% of its total water resources and 8.9% of the total water use. Water scarce regions tend to have higher percentages of virtual water export relative to their water resources and water uses. In the water scarce Huang-Huai-Hai region, the net virtual water export accounts for 7.9% of the region's water resources and 11.2% of its water uses. For individual sectors, major net virtual water exporters are those where agriculture provides raw materials in the initial process of the production chain and/or pollution intensity is high. The results suggest that China's economic gains from being a world "manufacture factory" have come at a high cost to its water resources and through pollution to its environment.

A GDP-driven model for the binary and weighted structure of the International Trade Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almog, Assaf; Squartini, Tiziano; Garlaschelli, Diego

2015-01-01

Recent events such as the global financial crisis have renewed the interest in the topic of economic networks. One of the main channels of shock propagation among countries is the International Trade Network (ITN). Two important models for the ITN structure, the classical gravity model of trade (more popular among economists) and the fitness model (more popular among networks scientists), are both limited to the characterization of only one representation of the ITN. The gravity model satisfactorily predicts the volume of trade between connected countries, but cannot reproduce the missing links (i.e. the topology). On the other hand, the fitness model can successfully replicate the topology of the ITN, but cannot predict the volumes. This paper tries to make an important step forward in the unification of those two frameworks, by proposing a new gross domestic product (GDP) driven model which can simultaneously reproduce the binary and the weighted properties of the ITN. Specifically, we adopt a maximum-entropy approach where both the degree and the strength of each node are preserved. We then identify strong nonlinear relationships between the GDP and the parameters of the model. This ultimately results in a weighted generalization of the fitness model of trade, where the GDP plays the role of a ‘macroeconomic fitness’ shaping the binary and the weighted structure of the ITN simultaneously. Our model mathematically explains an important asymmetry in the role of binary and weighted network properties, namely the fact that binary properties can be inferred without the knowledge of weighted ones, while the opposite is not true.

Water, Energy, and Food Nexus: Modeling of Inter-Basin Resources Trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIm, T. W.; Kang, D.; Wicaksono, A.; Jeong, G.; Jang, B. J.; Ahn, J.

2016-12-01

The water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus is an emerging issue in the concern of fulfilling the human requirements with a lack of available resources. The WEF nexus concept arises to develop a sustainable resources planning and management. In the concept, the three valuable resources (i.e. water, energy, and food) are inevitably interconnected thus it becomes a challenge for researchers to understand the complicated interdependency. A few studies have been committed for interpreting and implementing the WEF nexus using a computer based simulation model. Some of them mentioned that a trade-off is one alternative solution that can be taken to secure the available resources. Taking a concept of inter-basin water transfer, this study attempts to introduce an idea to develop a WEF nexus model for inter-basin resources trading simulation. Using the trading option among regions (e.g., cities, basins, or even countries), the model provides an opportunity to increase overall resources availability without draining local resources. The proposed model adopted the calculation process of an amount of water, energy, and food from a nation-wide model, with additional input and analysis process to simulate the resources trading between regions. The proposed model is applied for a hypothetic test area in South Korea for demonstration purposes. It is anticipated that the developed model can be a decision tool for efficient resources allocation for sustainable resources management. Acknowledgements This study was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.

The WATERS Network Conceptual Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Schnoor, J. L.; Haas, C. N.; Minsker, B.; Bales, R. C.; Hooper, R. P.

2007-12-01

The Water and Environmental Research Systems (WATERS) Network is a collaboration between the water- related Earth science and environmental engineering communities around a series of grand-challenge and strategic research questions. The vision of WATERS Network is to transform our ability to predict the quality, quantity and use of our nation's waters. The real transformative power of the WATERS Network lies in its ability to put sustained, spatially extensive, high-frequency information in the hands of researchers, information that will resolve how natural and engineered systems respond to perturbations. This knowledge then improves process understanding, and provides better predictive capabilities. In order to do this, the WATERS Network will create a national network of observatories equipped with multimedia sensors located across a range of different climatic and geographic regions and linked together by a common cyberinfrastructure. The network will incorporate existing and new environmental and socioeconomic data at various spatial and temporal scales. Data will include physical, chemical, and biological information to characterize surface water, ground water, land, socioeconomic and behavioral information to better frame human influences. Real-time data resources will be assimilated into an information system (cyberinfrastructure) that supports analytical tools and models, networking tools, and education and outreach services. The WATERS Network is an Environmental Observatory initiative of the U.S. National Science Foundation, developed in response to community planning over the past 10 years. It is being developed for the foundation's Engineering and Geosciences Directorates to jointly propose for funding consideration through the foundation's Major Research Equipment and Facilities Construction (MREFC) account. This presentation will summarize the current status of planning for the WATERS Network.

Economic Time Series Modeling to Determine the Feasibility of Incorporating Drinking Water Treatment in Water Quality Trading

EPA Science Inventory

The critical steps required to evaluating the feasiblity of establishing a water quality trading market in a testbed watershed is described. Focus is given toward describing the problem of thin markets as a specifi barrier to successful trading. Economic theory for considering an...

Ecological network analysis for a virtual water network.

PubMed

Fang, Delin; Chen, Bin

2015-06-02

The notions of virtual water flows provide important indicators to manifest the water consumption and allocation between different sectors via product transactions. However, the configuration of virtual water network (VWN) still needs further investigation to identify the water interdependency among different sectors as well as the network efficiency and stability in a socio-economic system. Ecological network analysis is chosen as a useful tool to examine the structure and function of VWN and the interactions among its sectors. A balance analysis of efficiency and redundancy is also conducted to describe the robustness (RVWN) of VWN. Then, network control analysis and network utility analysis are performed to investigate the dominant sectors and pathways for virtual water circulation and the mutual relationships between pairwise sectors. A case study of the Heihe River Basin in China shows that the balance between efficiency and redundancy is situated on the left side of the robustness curve with less efficiency and higher redundancy. The forestation, herding and fishing sectors and industrial sectors are found to be the main controllers. The network tends to be more mutualistic and synergic, though some competitive relationships that weaken the virtual water circulation still exist.

A Design of a Network Model to the Electric Power Trading System Using Web Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maruo, Tomoaki; Matsumoto, Keinosuke; Mori, Naoki; Kitayama, Masashi; Izumi, Yoshio

Web services are regarded as a new application paradigm in the world of the Internet. On the other hand, many business models of a power trading system has been proposed to aim at load reduction by consumers cooperating with electric power suppliers in an electric power market. Then, we propose a network model of power trading system using Web service in this paper. The adaptability of Web services to power trading system was checked in the prototype of our network model and we got good results for it. Each server provides functions as a SOAP server, and it is coupled loosely with each other through SOAP. Storing SOAP message in HTTP packet can establish the penetration communication way that is not conscious of a firewall. Switching of a dynamic server is possible by means of rewriting the server point information on WSDL at the time of obstacle generating.

Globalization of water and food through international trade: impacts on food security, resilience and justice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Odorico, P.; Carr, J. A.; Seekell, D. A.; Suweis, S. S.

2015-12-01

The global distribution of water resources in general depends on geographic conditions but can be (virtually) modified by humans through mechanisms of globalization, such as trade, that make food commodities available to populations living far from the production regions. While trade is expected to improve access to food and (virtual) water, its impact on the global food system and its vulnerability to shocks remains poorly understood. It is also unclear who benefits from trade and whether it contributes to inequality and justice in resource redistribution. We reconstruct the global patterns of food trade and show with a simple model how the ongoing intensification of imports and exports has eroded the resilience of the global food system. Drawing on human rights theory, we investigate the relationship between inequality and injustice in access to water and food. We assess the fulfillment of positive and negative water and food rights and evaluate the obligations arising from the need to ensure that these rights are met throughout the world. We find that trade enhances the vulnerability to shocks but overall increase the number of people whose water and food rights are met.

Framework Design and Influencing Factor Analysis of a Water Environmental Functional Zone-Based Effluent Trading System.

PubMed

Chen, Lei; Han, Zhaoxing; Li, Shuang; Shen, Zhenyao

2016-10-01

The efficacy of traditional effluent trading systems is questionable due to their neglect of seasonal hydrological variation and the creation of upstream hot spots within a watershed. Besides, few studies have been conducted to distinguish the impacts of each influencing factor on effluent trading systems outputs. In this study, a water environmental functional zone-based effluent trading systems framework was configured and a comprehensive analysis of its influencing factors was conducted. This proposed water environmental functional zone-based effluent trading systems was then applied for the control of chemical oxygen demand in the Beiyun River watershed, Beijing, China. Optimal trading results highlighted the integration of water quality constraints and different hydrological seasons, especially for downstream dischargers. The optimal trading of each discharger, in terms of pollutant reduction load and abatement cost, is greatly influenced by environmental and political factors such as background water quality, the location of river assessment points, and tradable discharge permits. In addition, the initial permit allowance has little influence on the market as a whole but does impact the individual discharger. These results provide information that is critical to understanding the impact of policy design on the functionality of an effluent trading systems.

Framework Design and Influencing Factor Analysis of a Water Environmental Functional Zone-Based Effluent Trading System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Han, Zhaoxing; Li, Shuang; Shen, Zhenyao

2016-10-01

The efficacy of traditional effluent trading systems is questionable due to their neglect of seasonal hydrological variation and the creation of upstream hot spots within a watershed. Besides, few studies have been conducted to distinguish the impacts of each influencing factor on effluent trading systems outputs. In this study, a water environmental functional zone-based effluent trading systems framework was configured and a comprehensive analysis of its influencing factors was conducted. This proposed water environmental functional zone-based effluent trading systems was then applied for the control of chemical oxygen demand in the Beiyun River watershed, Beijing, China. Optimal trading results highlighted the integration of water quality constraints and different hydrological seasons, especially for downstream dischargers. The optimal trading of each discharger, in terms of pollutant reduction load and abatement cost, is greatly influenced by environmental and political factors such as background water quality, the location of river assessment points, and tradable discharge permits. In addition, the initial permit allowance has little influence on the market as a whole but does impact the individual discharger. These results provide information that is critical to understanding the impact of policy design on the functionality of an effluent trading systems.

Uncovering the spatially distant feedback loops of global trade: A network and input-output approach.

PubMed

Prell, Christina; Sun, Laixiang; Feng, Kuishuang; He, Jiaying; Hubacek, Klaus

2017-05-15

Land-use change is increasingly driven by global trade. The term "telecoupling" has been gaining ground as a means to describe how human actions in one part of the world can have spatially distant impacts on land and land-use in another. These interactions can, over time, create both direct and spatially distant feedback loops, in which human activity and land use mutually impact one another over great expanses. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework to clarify spatially distant feedbacks in the case of land use and global trade. We use an innovative mix of multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis and stochastic actor-oriented models (SAOMs) for analyzing the co-evolution of changes in trade network patterns with those of land use, as embodied in trade. Our results indicate that the formation of trade ties and changes in embodied land use mutually impact one another, and further, that these changes are linked to disparities in countries' wealth. Through identifying this feedback loop, our results support ongoing discussions about the unequal trade patterns between rich and poor countries that result in uneven distributions of negative environmental impacts. Finally, evidence for this feedback loop is present even when controlling for a number of underlying mechanisms, such as countries' land endowments, their geographical distance from one another, and a number of endogenous network tendencies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

78 FR 50480 - In the Matter of Redfin Network, Inc.; Order of Suspension of Trading

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-19

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] In the Matter of Redfin Network, Inc.; Order of Suspension of Trading August 15, 2013. It appears to the Securities and Exchange Commission that there is a lack of current and accurate information concerning the securities of Redfin Network, Inc...

The Dynamics of Avian Influenza: Individual-Based Model with Intervention Strategies in Traditional Trade Networks in Phitsanulok Province, Thailand.

PubMed

Wilasang, Chaiwat; Wiratsudakul, Anuwat; Chadsuthi, Sudarat

2016-01-01

Avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is endemic to Southeast Asia. In Thailand, avian influenza viruses continue to cause large poultry stock losses. The spread of the disease has a serious impact on poultry production especially among rural households with backyard chickens. The movements and activities of chicken traders result in the spread of the disease through traditional trade networks. In this study, we investigate the dynamics of avian influenza in the traditional trade network in Phitsanulok Province, Thailand. We also propose an individual-based model with intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. We found that the dynamics of the disease mainly depend on the transmission probability and the virus inactivation period. This study also illustrates the appropriate virus disinfection period and the target for intervention strategies on traditional trade network. The results suggest that good hygiene and cleanliness among household traders and trader of trader areas and ensuring that any equipment used is clean can lead to a decrease in transmission and final epidemic size. These results may be useful to epidemiologists, researchers, and relevant authorities in understanding the spread of avian influenza through traditional trade networks.

Prediction in complex systems: The case of the international trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidmer, Alexandre; Zeng, An; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2015-10-01

Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction algorithms to data on the international trade between countries. This data can be represented as a complex network where links connect countries with the products that they export. Link prediction techniques based on heat and mass diffusion processes are employed to obtain predictions for products exported in the future. These baseline predictions are improved using a recent metric of country fitness and product similarity. The overall best results are achieved with a newly developed metric of product similarity which takes advantage of causality in the network evolution.

Virtual water trade patterns in relation to environmental and socioeconomic factors: a case study for Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten; Hoekstra, Arjen

2016-04-01

Water scarcity is among the main problems faced by many societies. Growing water demands put increasing pressure on local water resources, especially in water-short countries. Virtual water trade can play a key role in filling the gap between local demands and supply. This study aims to analyze the changes in virtual water trade of Tunisia in relation to environmental and socio-economic factors such as GDP, irrigated land, precipitation, population and water scarcity. The water footprint is estimated using Aquacrop for six crops over the period 1981-2010 at daily basis and a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 arc minutes. Virtual water trade is quantified at yearly basis. Regression models are used to investigate changes in virtual water trade in relation to various environmental and socio-economic factors. The explaining variables are selected in order to help understanding the trend and the inter-annual variability of the net virtual water import; GDP, population and irrigated land are hypothesized to explain the trend, and precipitation and water scarcity to explain variability. The selected crops are divided into three baskets. The first basket includes the two most imported crops, which are mainly rain-fed (wheat and barley). The second basket contains the two most exported crops, which are both irrigated and rain-fed (olives and dates). In the last basket we find the two highest economic blue water productive crops, which are mainly irrigated (tomatoes and potatoes). The results show the impact of each factor on net virtual water import of the selected crops during the period 1981-2010. Keywords: Virtual water, trade patterns, Aquacrop, Tunisia, water scarcity, water footprint.

Randomizing world trade. II. A weighted network analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squartini, Tiziano; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Garlaschelli, Diego

2011-10-01

Based on the misleading expectation that weighted network properties always offer a more complete description than purely topological ones, current economic models of the International Trade Network (ITN) generally aim at explaining local weighted properties, not local binary ones. Here we complement our analysis of the binary projections of the ITN by considering its weighted representations. We show that, unlike the binary case, all possible weighted representations of the ITN (directed and undirected, aggregated and disaggregated) cannot be traced back to local country-specific properties, which are therefore of limited informativeness. Our two papers show that traditional macroeconomic approaches systematically fail to capture the key properties of the ITN. In the binary case, they do not focus on the degree sequence and hence cannot characterize or replicate higher-order properties. In the weighted case, they generally focus on the strength sequence, but the knowledge of the latter is not enough in order to understand or reproduce indirect effects.

Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China - With a focus on crop production, consumption and trade.

PubMed

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-09-01

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1-S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO2 concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aflatoxin regulations and global pistachio trade: insights from social network analysis.

PubMed

Bui-Klimke, Travis R; Guclu, Hasan; Kensler, Thomas W; Yuan, Jian-Min; Wu, Felicia

2014-01-01

Aflatoxins, carcinogenic toxins produced by Aspergillus fungi, contaminate maize, peanuts, and tree nuts in many regions of the world. Pistachios are the main source of human dietary aflatoxins from tree nuts worldwide. Over 120 countries have regulations for maximum allowable aflatoxin levels in food commodities. We developed social network models to analyze the association between nations' aflatoxin regulations and global trade patterns of pistachios from 1996-2010. The main pistachio producing countries are Iran and the United States (US), which together contribute to nearly 75% of the total global pistachio market. Over this time period, during which many nations developed or changed their aflatoxin regulations in pistachios, global pistachio trade patterns changed; with the US increasingly exporting to countries with stricter aflatoxin standards. The US pistachio crop has had consistently lower levels of aflatoxin than the Iranian crop over this same time period. As similar trading patterns have also been documented in maize, public health may be affected if countries without aflatoxin regulations, or with more relaxed regulations, continually import crops with higher aflatoxin contamination. Unlike the previous studies on maize, this analysis includes a dynamic element, examining how trade patterns change over time with introduction or adjustment of aflatoxin regulations.

Aflatoxin Regulations and Global Pistachio Trade: Insights from Social Network Analysis

PubMed Central

Bui-Klimke, Travis R.; Guclu, Hasan; Kensler, Thomas W.; Yuan, Jian-Min; Wu, Felicia

2014-01-01

Aflatoxins, carcinogenic toxins produced by Aspergillus fungi, contaminate maize, peanuts, and tree nuts in many regions of the world. Pistachios are the main source of human dietary aflatoxins from tree nuts worldwide. Over 120 countries have regulations for maximum allowable aflatoxin levels in food commodities. We developed social network models to analyze the association between nations’ aflatoxin regulations and global trade patterns of pistachios from 1996–2010. The main pistachio producing countries are Iran and the United States (US), which together contribute to nearly 75% of the total global pistachio market. Over this time period, during which many nations developed or changed their aflatoxin regulations in pistachios, global pistachio trade patterns changed; with the US increasingly exporting to countries with stricter aflatoxin standards. The US pistachio crop has had consistently lower levels of aflatoxin than the Iranian crop over this same time period. As similar trading patterns have also been documented in maize, public health may be affected if countries without aflatoxin regulations, or with more relaxed regulations, continually import crops with higher aflatoxin contamination. Unlike the previous studies on maize, this analysis includes a dynamic element, examining how trade patterns change over time with introduction or adjustment of aflatoxin regulations. PMID:24670581

Using turbidity for designing water networks.

PubMed

Castaño, J A; Higuita, J C

2016-05-01

Some methods to design water networks with minimum fresh water consumption are based on the selection of a key contaminant. In most of these "single contaminant methods", a maximum allowable concentration of contaminants must be established in water demands and water sources. Turbidity is not a contaminant concentration but is a property that represents the "sum" of other contaminants, with the advantage that it can be cheaper and easily measured than biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, dissolved solids, among others. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that turbidity can be used directly in the design of water networks just like any other contaminant concentration. A mathematical demonstration is presented and in order to validate the mathematical results, the design of a water network for a guava fudge production process is performed. The material recovery pinch diagram and nearest neighbors algorithm were used for the design of the water network. Nevertheless, this water network could be designed using other single contaminant methodologies. The maximum error between the expected and the real turbidity values in the water network was 3.3%. These results corroborate the usefulness of turbidity in the design of water networks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

INCORPORATING WETLANDS IN WATER QUALITY TRADING PROGRAMS: ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Water quality trading has grown in popularity and scope in recent years owing to its potential as a flexible low cost way to achieve water quality goals, especially nutrient removal goals. Wetlands probide a variety of ecosystem services. They can sequester CO2, they can provide ...

Analysis of intra-country virtual water trade strategy to alleviate water scarcity in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, M.; Yang, H.; Mousavi, J.; Schulin, R.; Binder, C. R.; Abbaspour, K. C.

2010-08-01

Increasing water scarcity has posed a major constraint to sustain food production in many parts of the world. To study the situation at the regional level, we took Iran as an example and analyzed how an intra-country "virtual water trade strategy" (VWTS) may help improve cereal production as well as alleviate the water scarcity problem. This strategy calls, in part, for the adjustment of the structure of cropping pattern (ASCP) and interregional food trade where crop yield and crop water productivity as well as local economic and social conditions are taken into account. We constructed a systematic framework to assess ASCP at the provincial level under various driving forces and constraints. A mixed-integer, multi-objective, linear optimization model was developed and solved by linear programming. Data from 1990-2004 were used to account for yearly fluctuations of water availability and food production. Five scenarios were designed aimed at maximizing the national cereal production while meeting certain levels of wheat self-sufficiency under various water and land constraints in individual provinces. The results show that under the baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of the existing water use and food policy at the national level, some ASCP scenarios could produce more wheat with less water. Based on different scenarios in ASCP, we calculated that 31% to 100% of the total wheat shortage in the deficit provinces could be supplied by the wheat surplus provinces. As a result, wheat deficit provinces would receive 3.5 billion m3 to 5.5 billion m3 of virtual water by importing wheat from surplus provinces.

Analysis of intra-country virtual water trade strategy to alleviate water scarcity in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, M.; Yang, H.; Mousavi, J.; Schulin, R.; Binder, C. R.; Abbaspour, K. C.

2010-04-01

Increasing water scarcity has posed a major constraint to sustain food production in many parts of the world. To study the situation at the regional level, we took Iran as an example and analyzed how an intra-country "virtual water trade strategy" (VWTS) may help improve cereal production as well as alleviate the water scarcity problem. This strategy calls, in part, for the adjustment of the structure of cropping pattern (ASCP) and interregional food trade where crop yield and crop water productivity as well as local economic and social conditions are taken into account. We constructed a systematic framework to assess ASCP at the provincial level under various driving forces and constraints. A mixed-integer, multi-objective, linear optimization model was developed and solved by linear programming. Data from 1990-2004 were used to account for yearly fluctuations of water availability and food production. Five scenarios were designed aimed at maximizing the national cereal production while meeting certain levels of wheat self-sufficiency under various water and land constraints in individual provinces. The results show that under the baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of the existing water use and food policy at the national level, some ASCP scenarios could produce more wheat with less water. Based on different scenarios in ASCP, we calculated that 31% to 100% of the total wheat shortage in the deficit provinces could be supplied by the wheat surplus provinces. As a result, wheat deficit provinces would receive 3.5 billion m3 to 5.5 billion m3 of virtual water by importing wheat from surplus provinces.

The role of conflict minerals, artisanal mining, and informal trading networks in African intrastate and regional conflicts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.

2014-01-01

The relationship between natural resources and armed conflict gained public and political attention in the 1990s, when it became evident that the mining and trading of diamonds were connected with brutal rebellions in several African nations. Easily extracted resources such as alluvial diamonds and gold have been and continue to be exploited by rebel groups to fund their activities. Artisanal and small-scale miners operating under a quasi-legal status often mine these mineral deposits. While many African countries have legalized artisanal mining and established flow chains through which production is intended to travel, informal trading networks frequently emerge in which miners seek to evade taxes and fees by selling to unauthorized buyers. These networks have the potential to become international in scope, with actors operating in multiple countries. The lack of government control over the artisanal mining sector and the prominence of informal trade networks can have severe social, political, and economic consequences. In the past, mineral extraction fuelled violent civil wars in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Angola, and it continues to do so today in several other countries. The significant influence of the informal network that surrounds artisanal mining is therefore an important security concern that can extend across borders and have far-reaching impacts.

Links between global meat trade and organic river pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-04-01

Rising demand of meat boosts livestock farming intensification. Due to international meat trade, the environmental costs of production are becoming increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed. However, little is known about the impact of trade on the environment for both importers and exporters. Combining multi-scale (national, regional and gridded) data, we present a new method to quantify the impacts of international meat trade on global river organic pollution. We computed spatially distributed organic pollution in global river networks with and without meat trade, where the without-trade scenario assumes that meat imports are replaced by local production. Our analysis indicates high potential savings of livestock population and pollutants production at the global scale due to the international meat trade. The spatially detailed analysis shows that current trade contributes to organic pollution reductions in meat importing regions, especially in rich nations. The deterioration of river water quality, especially in developing regions, points to an urgent need for affordable infrastructure and technology development and wastewater solutions.

Controllability of Surface Water Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riasi, M. Sadegh; Yeghiazarian, Lilit

2017-12-01

To sustainably manage water resources, we must understand how to control complex networked systems. In this paper, we study surface water networks from the perspective of structural controllability, a concept that integrates classical control theory with graph-theoretic formalism. We present structural controllability theory and compute four metrics: full and target controllability, control centrality and control profile (FTCP) that collectively determine the structural boundaries of the system's control space. We use these metrics to answer the following questions: How does the structure of a surface water network affect its controllability? How to efficiently control a preselected subset of the network? Which nodes have the highest control power? What types of topological structures dominate controllability? Finally, we demonstrate the structural controllability theory in the analysis of a wide range of surface water networks, such as tributary, deltaic, and braided river systems.

On the Network Convergence Process in RPL over IEEE 802.15.4 Multihop Networks: Improvement and Trade-Offs

PubMed Central

Kermajani, Hamidreza; Gomez, Carles

2014-01-01

The IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low-power and Lossy Networks (RPL) has been recently developed by the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). Given its crucial role in enabling the Internet of Things, a significant amount of research effort has already been devoted to RPL. However, the RPL network convergence process has not yet been investigated in detail. In this paper we study the influence of the main RPL parameters and mechanisms on the network convergence process of this protocol in IEEE 802.15.4 multihop networks. We also propose and evaluate a mechanism that leverages an option available in RPL for accelerating the network convergence process. We carry out extensive simulations for a wide range of conditions, considering different network scenarios in terms of size and density. Results show that network convergence performance depends dramatically on the use and adequate configuration of key RPL parameters and mechanisms. The findings and contributions of this work provide a RPL configuration guideline for network convergence performance tuning, as well as a characterization of the related performance trade-offs. PMID:25004154

On the network convergence process in RPL over IEEE 802.15.4 multihop networks: improvement and trade-offs.

PubMed

Kermajani, Hamidreza; Gomez, Carles

2014-07-07

The IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low-power and Lossy Networks (RPL) has been recently developed by the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). Given its crucial role in enabling the Internet of Things, a significant amount of research effort has already been devoted to RPL. However, the RPL network convergence process has not yet been investigated in detail. In this paper we study the influence of the main RPL parameters and mechanisms on the network convergence process of this protocol in IEEE 802.15.4 multihop networks. We also propose and evaluate a mechanism that leverages an option available in RPL for accelerating the network convergence process. We carry out extensive simulations for a wide range of conditions, considering different network scenarios in terms of size and density. Results show that network convergence performance depends dramatically on the use and adequate configuration of key RPL parameters and mechanisms. The findings and contributions of this work provide a RPL configuration guideline for network convergence performance tuning, as well as a characterization of the related performance trade-offs.

Solar Water Heater Systems for Building Trades Class.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Milton; And Others

This teaching unit serves as a guide for the installation of active solar water heating systems. It contains a project designed for use with secondary level students of a building trades class. Students typically would meet 2 to 3 hours per day and would be able to complete the activity within a 1-week time period. Objectives of this unit include:…

Refining models for quantifying the water quality benefits of improved animal management for use in water quality trading

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water quality trading (WQT) is a market-based approach that allows point sources of water pollution to meet their water quality obligations by purchasing credits from the reduced discharges from other point or nonpoint sources. Non-permitted animal operations and fields of permitted animal operatio...

Closed-Loop Control of Complex Networks: A Trade-Off between Time and Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yong-Zheng; Leng, Si-Yang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso; Lin, Wei

2017-11-01

Controlling complex nonlinear networks is largely an unsolved problem at the present. Existing works focus either on open-loop control strategies and their energy consumptions or on closed-loop control schemes with an infinite-time duration. We articulate a finite-time, closed-loop controller with an eye toward the physical and mathematical underpinnings of the trade-off between the control time and energy as well as their dependence on the network parameters and structure. The closed-loop controller is tested on a large number of real systems including stem cell differentiation, food webs, random ecosystems, and spiking neuronal networks. Our results represent a step forward in developing a rigorous and general framework to control nonlinear dynamical networks with a complex topology.

Many-objective optimization and visual analytics reveal key trade-offs for London's water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matrosov, Evgenii S.; Huskova, Ivana; Kasprzyk, Joseph R.; Harou, Julien J.; Lambert, Chris; Reed, Patrick M.

2015-12-01

In this study, we link a water resource management simulator to multi-objective search to reveal the key trade-offs inherent in planning a real-world water resource system. We consider new supplies and demand management (conservation) options while seeking to elucidate the trade-offs between the best portfolios of schemes to satisfy projected water demands. Alternative system designs are evaluated using performance measures that minimize capital and operating costs and energy use while maximizing resilience, engineering and environmental metrics, subject to supply reliability constraints. Our analysis shows many-objective evolutionary optimization coupled with state-of-the art visual analytics can help planners discover more diverse water supply system designs and better understand their inherent trade-offs. The approach is used to explore future water supply options for the Thames water resource system (including London's water supply). New supply options include a new reservoir, water transfers, artificial recharge, wastewater reuse and brackish groundwater desalination. Demand management options include leakage reduction, compulsory metering and seasonal tariffs. The Thames system's Pareto approximate portfolios cluster into distinct groups of water supply options; for example implementing a pipe refurbishment program leads to higher capital costs but greater reliability. This study highlights that traditional least-cost reliability constrained design of water supply systems masks asset combinations whose benefits only become apparent when more planning objectives are considered.

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

PubMed

Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Gilligan, Christopher A; Monod, Hervé; Belloc, Catherine; Ezanno, Pauline; Filipe, João A N; Vergu, Elisabeta

2016-03-01

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic-epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. © 2016 The Authors.

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks

PubMed Central

Gilligan, Christopher A.; Belloc, Catherine; Filipe, João A. N.; Vergu, Elisabeta

2016-01-01

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g. via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic–epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. PMID:26984191

Optimization of water-level monitoring networks in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer using a kriging-based genetic algorithm method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, Jason C.

2013-01-01

Long-term groundwater monitoring networks can provide essential information for the planning and management of water resources. Budget constraints in water resource management agencies often mean a reduction in the number of observation wells included in a monitoring network. A network design tool, distributed as an R package, was developed to determine which wells to exclude from a monitoring network because they add little or no beneficial information. A kriging-based genetic algorithm method was used to optimize the monitoring network. The algorithm was used to find the set of wells whose removal leads to the smallest increase in the weighted sum of the (1) mean standard error at all nodes in the kriging grid where the water table is estimated, (2) root-mean-squared-error between the measured and estimated water-level elevation at the removed sites, (3) mean standard deviation of measurements across time at the removed sites, and (4) mean measurement error of wells in the reduced network. The solution to the optimization problem (the best wells to retain in the monitoring network) depends on the total number of wells removed; this number is a management decision. The network design tool was applied to optimize two observation well networks monitoring the water table of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho; these networks include the 2008 Federal-State Cooperative water-level monitoring network (Co-op network) with 166 observation wells, and the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey-Idaho National Laboratory water-level monitoring network (USGS-INL network) with 171 wells. Each water-level monitoring network was optimized five times: by removing (1) 10, (2) 20, (3) 40, (4) 60, and (5) 80 observation wells from the original network. An examination of the trade-offs associated with changes in the number of wells to remove indicates that 20 wells can be removed from the Co-op network with a relatively small degradation of the estimated water table map, and 40 wells

Trade-offs Between Socio-economic Development and Ecosystem Health under Changing Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Elshorbagy, A. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Gober, P.; Jardine, T.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2017-12-01

Natural and human water systems at regional scales are often developed around key characteristics of streamflow. As a result, changes in streamflow regime can affect both socio-economic activities and freshwater ecosystems. In addition to natural variability and/or climate change, extensive water resource management to support socio-economic growth has also changed streamflow regimes. This study aims at understanding the trade-offs between agricultural expansion in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, and alterations in the ecohydrological characteristics of the Saskatchewan River Delta (SRD) located downstream. Changes in climate along with extensive water resource management have altered the upstream flow regime. Moreover, Saskatchewan is investigating the possible expansion of irrigated agriculture to boost the provincial economy. To evaluate trade-offs across a range of possible scenarios for streamflow changes, the potential increase in provincial net benefit versus potential vulnerability of the SRD was assessed using perturbed flow realizations along with scenarios of irrigation expansion as input to an integrated water resource system model. This study sheds light on the potential variability in trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem health under a range of streamflow conditions, with the aim of informing decisions that can benefit both natural and human water systems.

Linking economic water use, freshwater ecosystem impacts, and virtual water trade in a Great Lakes watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubako, S. T.; Ruddell, B. L.; Mayer, A. S.

2013-12-01

The impact of human water uses and economic pressures on freshwater ecosystems is of growing interest for water resource management worldwide. This case study for a water-rich watershed in the Great Lakes region links the economic pressures on water resources as revealed by virtual water trade balances to the nature of the economic water use and the associated impacts on the freshwater ecosystem. A water accounting framework that combines water consumption data and economic data from input output tables is applied to quantify localized virtual water imports and exports in the Kalamazoo watershed which comprises ten counties. Water using economic activities at the county level are conformed to watershed boundaries through land use-water use relationships. The counties are part of a region implementing the Michigan Water Withdrawal Assessment Process, including new regulatory approaches for adaptive water resources management under a riparian water rights framework. The results show that at local level, there exists considerable water use intensity and virtual water trade balance disparity among the counties and between water use sectors in this watershed. The watershed is a net virtual water importer, with some counties outsourcing nearly half of their water resource impacts, and some outsourcing nearly all water resource impacts. The largest virtual water imports are associated with agriculture, thermoelectric power generation and industry, while the bulk of the exports are associated with thermoelectric power generation and commercial activities. The methodology is applicable to various spatial levels ranging from the micro sub-watershed level to the macro Great Lakes watershed region, subject to the availability of reliable water use and economic data.

Draft framework for watershed-based trading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-05-30

Effluent trading is an innovative way for water quality agencies and community stakeholders to develop common-sense, cost-effective solutions for water quality problems in their watersheds. Trading can allow communities to grow and prosper while retaining their commitment to water quality. The bulk of this framework discusses effluent trading in watersheds. Remaining sections discuss transactions that, while not technically fulfilling the definition of `effluent` trade, do involve the exchange of valued water quality or other ecological improvements between partners responding to market initiatives. This document therefore includes activities such as trades within a facility (intra-plant trading) and wetland mitigation banking, effluentmore » trading/watersheds/watershed management/water quality protection/water quality management.« less

The Persistence of Structural Inequality?: A Network Analysis of International Trade, 1965-2000

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahutga, Matthew C.

2006-01-01

This article reports results from a network analysis of international trade from 1965 through 2000. It addresses the impact of changes associated with globalization and the "new international division of labor" (NIDL) on structural inequality in the world economy. To assess this impact, I ask three specific questions. (1) Do patterns of…

INCORPORATING WETLANDS IN WATER QUALITY TRADING: ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

Incorporating the use of wetlands as a technology to enhance water quality trading programs requires consideration of ecological, legal, and economic issues. We explore the case of encouraging the use of wetlands with a focus on the economic considerations. Interestingly, it is...

Water flows in the Spanish economy: agri-food sectors, trade and households diets in an input-output framework.

PubMed

Cazcarro, Ignacio; Duarte, Rosa; Sánchez-Chóliz, Julio

2012-06-19

Seeking to advance our knowledge of water flows and footprints and the factors underlying them, we apply, on the basis of an extended 2004 Social Accounting Matrix for Spain, an open Leontief model in which households and foreign trade are the exogenous accounts. The model shows the water embodied in products bought by consumers (which we identify with the Water Footprint) and in trade (identified with virtual water trade). Activities with relevant water inflows and outflows such as the agrarian sector, textiles, and the agri-food industry are examined in detail using breakdowns of the relevant accounts. The data reflect only physical consumption, differentiating between green and blue water. The results reveal that Spain is a net importer of water. Flows are then related to key trading partners to show the large quantities involved. The focus on embodied (or virtual) water by activity is helpful to distinguish indirect from direct consumption as embodied water can be more than 300 times direct consumption in some food industry activities. Finally, a sensitivity analysis applied to changes in diets shows the possibility of reducing water uses by modifying households' behavior to encourage healthier eating.

An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Stock Trading Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Pei-Chann; Liu, Chen-Hao; Fan, Chin-Yuan; Lin, Jun-Lin; Lai, Chih-Ming

Stock turning signals detection are very interesting subject arising in numerous financial and economic planning problems. In this paper, Ensemble Neural Network system with Intelligent Piecewise Linear Representation for stock turning points detection is presented. The Intelligent piecewise linear representation method is able to generate numerous stocks turning signals from the historic data base, then Ensemble Neural Network system will be applied to train the pattern and retrieve similar stock price patterns from historic data for training. These turning signals represent short-term and long-term trading signals for selling or buying stocks from the market which are applied to forecast the future turning points from the set of test data. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid system can make a significant and constant amount of profit when compared with other approaches using stock data available in the market.

Network interdependency between social media and stock trading activities: Evidence from China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shen; Ren, Da; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Yongjie; Shen, Dehua

2016-06-01

The emergence of social media accelerates the research on information dissemination and its corresponding influence on trading tendency. Based on empirical study of the dynamic relationship between the ratio of re-post microblog and original microblog (RRO) and average volume per transaction (VPT), we find the following results: (1) In microblog network, stocks with high RRO are often accompanied with low statistical VPT; (2) When the discussion about one stock is quite lively in microblog network (such as the blog postings reach a summit), it does not statistically cause the fluctuations of VPT of the stock; (3) Overall speaking, RRO plays a significant role in inverting u-shaped relationship with VPT.

Systemic trade risk of critical resources.

PubMed

Klimek, Peter; Obersteiner, Michael; Thurner, Stefan

2015-11-01

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the role of strongly interconnected markets in causing systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. We show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of nonfuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the worldwide trade networks spanned by these resources. At the global level, we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. At the regional level, we find that, to some extent, region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade risk indicators are often those that are produced as by-products of major metals. We identify significant strategic shortcomings in the management of systemic trade risk, in particular in the European Union.

Systemic trade risk of critical resources

PubMed Central

Klimek, Peter; Obersteiner, Michael; Thurner, Stefan

2015-01-01

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the role of strongly interconnected markets in causing systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. We show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of nonfuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the worldwide trade networks spanned by these resources. At the global level, we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. At the regional level, we find that, to some extent, region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade risk indicators are often those that are produced as by-products of major metals. We identify significant strategic shortcomings in the management of systemic trade risk, in particular in the European Union. PMID:26702431

A Trade Study of Two Membrane-Aerated Biological Water Processors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allada, Ram; Lange, Kevin; Vega. Leticia; Roberts, Michael S.; Jackson, Andrew; Anderson, Molly; Pickering, Karen

2011-01-01

Biologically based systems are under evaluation as primary water processors for next generation life support systems due to their low power requirements and their inherent regenerative nature. This paper will summarize the results of two recent studies involving membrane aerated biological water processors and present results of a trade study comparing the two systems with regards to waste stream composition, nutrient loading and system design. Results of optimal configurations will be presented.

WaterNet:The NASA Water Cycle Solutions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belvedere, D. R.; Houser, P. R.; Pozzi, W.; Imam, B.; Schiffer, R.; Schlosser, C. A.; Gupta, H.; Martinez, G.; Lopez, V.; Vorosmarty, C.; Fekete, B.; Matthews, D.; Lawford, R.; Welty, C.; Seck, A.

2008-12-01

Water is essential to life and directly impacts and constrains society's welfare, progress, and sustainable growth, and is continuously being transformed by climate change, erosion, pollution, and engineering. Projections of the effects of such factors will remain speculative until more effective global prediction systems and applications are implemented. NASA's unique role is to use its view from space to improve water and energy cycle monitoring and prediction, and has taken steps to collaborate and improve interoperability with existing networks and nodes of research organizations, operational agencies, science communities, and private industry. WaterNet is a Solutions Network, devoted to the identification and recommendation of candidate solutions that propose ways in which water-cycle related NASA research results can be skillfully applied by partner agencies, international organizations, state, and local governments. It is designed to improve and optimize the sustained ability of water cycle researchers, stakeholders, organizations and networks to interact, identify, harness, and extend NASA research results to augment Decision Support Tools that address national needs.

Exploring Nontraditional Participation as an Approach to Make Water Quality Trading Markets More Effective

EPA Science Inventory

Water quality trading (WQT) under the Clean Water Act is a compliance option for water quality based effluent limitations in a National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit (i.e., the requirements for discharging, monitoring, and reporting). States that have enac...

Water management in the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, Brian J.; van Beek, Rens L. P. H.; Meeks, Elijah; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Scheidel, Walter; Wassen, Martin J.; van der Velde, Ype; Dekker, Stefan C.

2014-05-01

Climate variability can have extreme impacts on societies in regions that are water-limited for agriculture. A society's ability to manage its water resources in such environments is critical to its long-term viability. Water management can involve improving agricultural yields through in-situ irrigation or redistributing water resources through trade in food. Here, we explore how such water management strategies affected the resilience of the Roman Empire to climate variability in the water-limited region of the Mediterranean. Using the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and estimates of landcover based on the Historical Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) we generate potential agricultural yield maps under variable climate. HYDE maps of population density in conjunction with potential yield estimates are used to develop maps of agricultural surplus and deficit. The surplus and deficit regions are abstracted to nodes on a water redistribution network based on the Stanford Geospatial Network Model of the Roman World (ORBIS). This demand-driven, water redistribution network allows us to quantitatively explore how water management strategies such as irrigation and food trade improved the resilience of the Roman Empire to climate variability.

Network analysis of returns and volume trading in stock markets: The Euro Stoxx case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brida, Juan Gabriel; Matesanz, David; Seijas, Maria Nela

2016-02-01

This study applies network analysis to analyze the structure of the Euro Stoxx market during the long period from 2002 up to 2014. The paper generalizes previous research on stock market networks by including asset returns and volume trading as the main variables to study the financial market. A multidimensional generalization of the minimal spanning tree (MST) concept is introduced, by adding the role of trading volume to the traditional approach which only includes price returns. Additionally, we use symbolization methods to the raw data to study the behavior of the market structure in different, normal and critical, situations. The hierarchical organization of the network is derived, and the MST for different sub-periods of 2002-2014 is created to illustrate how the structure of the market evolves over time. From the structural topologies of these trees, different clusters of companies are identified and analyzed according to their geographical and economic links. Two important results are achieved. Firstly, as other studies have highlighted, at the time of the financial crisis after 2008 the network becomes a more centralized one. Secondly and most important, during our second period of analysis, 2008-2014, we observe that hierarchy becomes more country-specific where different sub-clusters of stocks belonging to France, Germany, Spain or Italy are found apart from their business sector group. This result may suggest that during this period of time financial investors seem to be worried most about country specific economic circumstances.

Quality assessment of static aggregation compared to the temporal approach based on a pig trade network in Northern Germany.

PubMed

Büttner, Kathrin; Salau, Jennifer; Krieter, Joachim

2016-07-01

Recent analyses of animal movement networks focused on the static aggregation of trade contacts over different time windows, which neglects the system's temporal variation. In terms of disease spread, ignoring the temporal dynamics can lead to an over- or underestimation of an outbreak's speed and extent. This becomes particularly evident, if the static aggregation allows for the existence of more paths compared to the number of time-respecting paths (i.e. paths in the right chronological order). Therefore, the aim of this study was to reveal differences between static and temporal representations of an animal trade network and to assess the quality of the static aggregation in comparison to the temporal counterpart. Contact data from a pig trade network (2006-2009) of a producer community in Northern Germany were analysed. The results show that a median value of 8.7 % (4.6-14.1%) of the nodes and 3.1% (1.6-5.5%) of the edges were active on a weekly resolution. No fluctuations in the activity patterns were obvious. Furthermore, 50% of the nodes already had one trade contact after approximately six months. For an accumulation window with increasing size (one day each), the accumulation rate, i.e. the relative increase in the number of nodes or edges, stayed relatively constant below 0.07% for the nodes and 0.12 % for the edges. The temporal distances had a much wider distribution than the topological distances. 84% of the temporal distances were smaller than 90 days. The maximum temporal distance was 1000 days, which corresponds to the temporal diameter of the present network. The median temporal correlation coefficient, which measures the probability for an edge to persist across two consecutive time steps, was 0.47, with a maximum value of 0.63 at the accumulation window of 88 days. The causal fidelity measures the fraction of the number of static paths which can also be taken in the temporal network. For the whole observation period relatively high values

Developing a methodology for real-time trading of water withdrawal and waste load discharge permits in rivers.

PubMed

Soltani, Maryam; Kerachian, Reza

2018-04-15

In this paper, a new methodology is proposed for the real-time trading of water withdrawal and waste load discharge permits in agricultural areas along the rivers. Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) is chosen as an indicator of river water quality and the TDS load that agricultural water users discharge to the river are controlled by storing a part of return flows in some evaporation ponds. Available surface water withdrawal and waste load discharge permits are determined using a non-linear multi-objective optimization model. Total available permits are then fairly reallocated among agricultural water users, proportional to their arable lands. Water users can trade their water withdrawal and waste load discharge permits simultaneously, in a bilateral, step by step framework, which takes advantage of differences in their water use efficiencies and agricultural return flow rates. A trade that would take place at each time step results in either more benefit or less diverted return flow. The Nucleolus cooperative game is used to redistribute the benefits generated through trades in different time steps. The proposed methodology is applied to PayePol region in the Karkheh River catchment, southwest Iran. Predicting that 1922.7 Million Cubic Meters (MCM) of annual flow is available to agricultural lands at the beginning of the cultivation year, the real-time optimization model estimates the total annual benefit to reach 46.07 million US Dollars (USD), which requires 6.31 MCM of return flow to be diverted to the evaporation ponds. Fair reallocation of the permits, changes these values to 35.38 million USD and 13.69 MCM, respectively. Results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the real-time water and waste load allocation and simultaneous trading of permits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduction of water losses by rehabilitation of water distribution network.

PubMed

Güngör, Mahmud; Yarar, Ufuk; Firat, Mahmut

2017-09-11

Physical or real losses may be indicated as the most important component of the water losses occurring in a water distribution network (WDN). The objective of this study is to examine the effects of piping material management and network rehabilitation on the physical water losses and water losses management in a WDN. For this aim, the Denizli WDN consisting of very old pipes that have exhausted their economic life is selected as the study area. The fact that the current network is old results in the decrease of pressure strength, increase of failure intensity, and inefficient use of water resources thus leading to the application of the rehabilitation program. In Denizli, network renewal works have been carried out since the year 2009 under the rehabilitation program. It was determined that the failure rate at regions where network renewal constructions have been completed decreased down to zero level. Renewal of piping material enables the minimization of leakage losses as well as the failure rate. On the other hand, the system rehabilitation has the potential to amortize itself in a very short amount of time if the initial investment cost of network renewal is considered along with the operating costs of the old and new systems, as well as water loss costs. As a result, it can be stated that renewal of piping material in water distribution systems, enhancement of the physical properties of the system, provide significant contributions such as increase of water and energy efficiency and more effective use of resources.

Hydrology-oriented forest management trade-offs. A modeling framework coupling field data, simulation results and Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Garcia-Prats, Alberto; González-Sanchis, María; Del Campo, Antonio D; Lull, Cristina

2018-10-15

Hydrology-oriented forest management sets water as key factor of the forest management for adaptation due to water is the most limiting factor in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian Network modeling to assess potential indirect effects and trade-offs when hydrology-oriented forest management is applied to a real Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and forest fire risk were included in the modeling framework. Field data from experimental plots were employed to calibrate and validate the mechanistic Biome-BGCMuSo model that simulates the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Many other 50-year long scenarios with different conditions to the ones measured in the field experiment were simulated and the outcomes employed to build the Bayesian Network in a linked chain of models. Hydrology-oriented forest management was very positive insofar as more water was made available to the stand because of an interception reduction. This resource was made available to the stand, which increased the evapotranspiration and its components, the soil water content and a slightly increase of deep percolation. Conversely, Stemflow was drastically reduced. No effect was observed on Runof due to the thinning treatment. The soil organic carbon content was also increased which in turn caused a greater respiration. The long-term effect of the thinning treatment on the LAI was very positive. This was undoubtedly due to the increased vigor generated by the greater availability of water and nutrients for the stand and the reduction of competence between trees. This greater activity resulted in an increase in GPP and vegetation carbon, and therefore, we would expect a higher carbon sequestration. It is worth emphasizing that this extra amount of water and nutrients was taken up by the stand and did not entail any loss of nutrients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

Nutrient Credit Trading--a Market-based Approach for Improving Water Quality

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Farmers are getting financial rewards for implementing conservation measures on their farms. Industrial wastewater treatment plants are buying credits generated from these measures to meet their NPDES permit regulatory requirements. This is referred to as “water quality trading.” The treatment p...

Management of unregulated agricultural nonpoint sources through water quality trading market.

PubMed

Mahjoobi, Emad; Sarang, Amin; Ardestani, Mojtaba

2016-11-01

Water quality trading (WQT) could be an innovative policy to incentivize farmers to implement best management practices (BMPs) for their activities. This study focused on assessment of involving unregulated agricultural nonpoint sources (NPS) into the WQT market in Gharesoo watershed in the west of Iran. It also proposes a methodology to determine location-based trading ratios as well as environmental penalty cost to achieve a more well-designed market structure. Trading activities in different scenarios were described by trading volume (TV), participation rate (PR), total exchanged value (TEV), and other market parameters in order to achieve a better comparison of market performance. Results showed that, by applying NPS to the Gharesoo watershed, total phosphorous (TP) trading market could increase TV, PR, and TEV up to 11, 1.7 and 7.5 times, respectively, depending on which level of BMPs are implemented by them. Additionally, it could save 29% of the total cost of implementing a TP total maximum daily load in this watershed compared to the 'command and control' approach. Furthermore, the agricultural sector could profit by $5.49 million (or $75/ha) by choosing solutions such as terrace systems and filter strips to register into the market. This profit can be allocated to the development of new agricultural technologies.

78 FR 62931 - Pacific Clean Water Technologies, Inc.; Order of Suspension of Trading

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-22

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] Pacific Clean Water Technologies, Inc.; Order of Suspension of Trading October 11, 2013. It appears to the Securities and Exchange Commission that there is a lack of current and accurate information concerning the securities of Pacific Clean Water...

Farmers, Trust, and the Market Solution to Water Pollution: The Role of Social Embeddedness in Water Quality Trading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mariola, Matt J.

2012-01-01

Water quality trading (WQT) is a market arrangement in which a point-source water polluter pays farmers to implement conservation practices and claims the resulting benefits as credits toward meeting a pollution permit. Success rates of WQT programs nationwide are highly variable. Most of the literature on WQT is from an economic perspective…

Investigating water transport through the xylem network in vascular plants.

PubMed

Kim, Hae Koo; Park, Joonghyuk; Hwang, Ildoo

2014-04-01

Our understanding of physical and physiological mechanisms depends on the development of advanced technologies and tools to prove or re-evaluate established theories, and test new hypotheses. Water flow in land plants is a fascinating phenomenon, a vital component of the water cycle, and essential for life on Earth. The cohesion-tension theory (CTT), formulated more than a century ago and based on the physical properties of water, laid the foundation for our understanding of water transport in vascular plants. Numerous experimental tools have since been developed to evaluate various aspects of the CTT, such as the existence of negative hydrostatic pressure. This review focuses on the evolution of the experimental methods used to study water transport in plants, and summarizes the different ways to investigate the diversity of the xylem network structure and sap flow dynamics in various species. As water transport is documented at different scales, from the level of single conduits to entire plants, it is critical that new results be subjected to systematic cross-validation and that findings based on different organs be integrated at the whole-plant level. We also discuss the functional trade-offs between optimizing hydraulic efficiency and maintaining the safety of the entire transport system. Furthermore, we evaluate future directions in sap flow research and highlight the importance of integrating the combined effects of various levels of hydraulic regulation.

Visualising Pareto-optimal trade-offs helps move beyond monetary-only criteria for water management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

2014-05-01

Water related eco-system services are important to the livelihoods of the poorest sectors of society in developing countries. Degradation or loss of these services can increase the vulnerability of people decreasing their capacity to support themselves. New approaches to help guide water resources management decisions are needed which account for the non-market value of ecosystem goods and services. In case studies from Brazil and Kenya we demonstrate the capability of many objective Pareto-optimal trade-off analysis to help decision makers balance economic and non-market benefits from the management of existing multi-reservoir systems. A multi-criteria search algorithm is coupled to a water resources management simulator of each basin to generate a set of Pareto-approximate trade-offs representing the best case management decisions. In both cases, volume dependent reservoir release rules are the management decisions being optimised. In the Kenyan case we further assess the impacts of proposed irrigation investments, and how the possibility of new investments impacts the system's trade-offs. During the multi-criteria search (optimisation), performance of different sets of management decisions (policies) is assessed against case-specific objective functions representing provision of water supply and irrigation, hydropower generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Results are visualised as trade-off surfaces to help decision makers understand the impacts of different policies on a broad range of stakeholders and to assist in decision-making. These case studies show how the approach can reveal unexpected opportunities for win-win solutions, and quantify the trade-offs between investing to increase agricultural revenue and negative impacts on protected ecosystems which support rural livelihoods.

Water quality trading opportunities in two sub-watersheds in the northern Lake Okeechobee watershed.

PubMed

Corrales, Juliana; Naja, G Melodie; Bhat, Mahadev G; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando

2017-07-01

For decades, the increase of nutrient enrichment has threatened the ecological integrity and economic sustainability of many rivers, lakes, and coastal waters, including Lake Okeechobee, the second largest freshwater lake in the contiguous United States. Water quality trading programs have been an area of active development to both, reduce nutrient pollution and minimize abatement costs. The objective of this study was to apply a comprehensive modeling framework, integrating a hydrologic-water quality model with an economic model, to assess and compare the cost-effectiveness of a water quality trading program over a command-and-control approach in order to reduce phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee. The Upper Kissimmee (UK) and Taylor Creek/Nubbin Slough (TCNS) sub-watersheds, identified as major sources of total phosphorus (TP) loadings to the lake, were selected for this analysis. The effect of different caps on the market potential was assessed while considering four factors: the least-cost abatement solutions, credit prices, potential cost savings, and credit supply and demand. Hypothetical trading scenarios were also developed, using the optimal caps selected for the two sub-watersheds. In both sub-watersheds, a phosphorus credit trading program was less expensive than the conventional command-and-control approach. While attaining cost-effectiveness, keeping optimal credit prices, and fostering market competition, phosphorus reduction targets of 46% and 32% were selected as the most appropriate caps in the UK and TCNS sub-watersheds, respectively. Wastewater treatment facilities and urban areas in the UK, and concentrated animal feeding operations in the TCNS sub-watershed were identified as potential credit buyers, whereas improved pastures were identified as the major credit sellers in both sub-watersheds. The estimated net cost savings resulting from implementing a phosphorus trading program in the UK and TCNS sub-watersheds were 76% ($ 34.9 million per

Linking water resources to food security through virtual water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, Stefania

2014-05-01

The largest use of global freshwater resources is related to food production. While each day we drink about 2 liters of water, we consume (eating) about 4000 liters of ''virtual water'', which represents the freshwater used to produce crop-based and livestock-based food. Considering human water consumption as a whole, most part originates from agriculture (85.8%), and only minor parts come from industry (9.6%) or households (4.6%). These numbers shed light on the great pressure of humanity on global freshwater resources and justify the increasing interest towards this form of environmental impact, usually known as ''water footprint''. Virtual water is a key variable in establishing the nexus between water and food. In fact, water resources used for agricultural production determine local food availability, and impact the international trade of agricultural goods. Trade, in turn, makes food commodities available to nations which are not otherwise self-sufficient, in terms of water resources or food, and it establishes an equilibrium between food demand and production at the global scale. Therefore, food security strongly relies on international food trade, but also on the use of distant and foreign water resources, which need to be acknowledged and investigated. Virtual water embedded in production and international trade follows the fate of food on the trade network, generating virtual flows of great magnitude (e.g., 2800 km3 in 2010) and defining local and global virtual water balances worldwide. The resulting water-food nexus is critical for the societal and economic development, and it has several implications ranging from population dynamics to the competing use of freshwater resources, from dietary guidelines to globalization of trade, from externalization of pollution to policy making and to socio-economic wealth. All these implications represent a great challenge for future research, not only in hydrology but in the many fields related to this

77 FR 26796 - Order of Suspension of Trading; Airtrax, Inc., Amedia Networks, Inc., American Business Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-07

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] Order of Suspension of Trading; Airtrax, Inc., Amedia Networks, Inc., American Business Financial Services, Inc., Appalachian Bancshares, Inc., and... information concerning the securities of American Business Financial Services, Inc. because it has not filed...

Georgia's Stream-Water-Quality Monitoring Network, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nobles, Patricia L.; ,

2006-01-01

The USGS stream-water-quality monitoring network for Georgia is an aggregation of smaller networks and individual monitoring stations that have been established in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies. These networks collectively provide data from 130 sites, 62 of which are monitored continuously in real time using specialized equipment that transmits these data via satellite to a centralized location for processing and storage. These data are made available on the Web in near real time at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ga/nwis/ Ninety-eight stations are sampled periodically for a more extensive suite of chemical and biological constituents that require laboratory analysis. Both the continuous and the periodic water-quality data are archived and maintained in the USGS National Water Information System and are available to cooperators, water-resource managers, and the public. The map at right shows the USGS stream-water-quality monitoring network for Georgia and major watersheds. The network represents an aggregation of smaller networks and individual monitoring stations that collectively provide data from 130 sites.

Measuring and moderating the water resource impact of biofuel production and trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fingerman, Kevin Robert

primary actors in this governance effort are government regulators, whose policies and incentives continue to drive and to shape the expansion of the bioenergy industry. However, the ability of governments to manage the impacts of biofuels is severely constrained by their obligations under international trade law. This dissertation concludes, therefore, with a detailed investigation into relevant precedents under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). I use these precedents to identify the policy tools that governments would be able to bring to bear in moderating the water resource impacts and myriad other environmental and social concerns raised by bioenergy expansion.

Why do Economic Instruments Fail? The role of Water trading and Pricing at a River Basin Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Blanco, C. D.; Gomez, C.; Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.

2016-12-01

Water management problems stem from the mismatch between a multitude of individual decisions, on the one hand, and the current and projected status of water resources, on the other. Economics provides valuable information on the incentives that drive individual decisions and can be used to design instruments that address the problem. Yet, proposals from economists regarding instruments like water pricing or trading are mostly based upon basic and general principles of welfare economics that are not straightaway applicable to assets as complex as water. For example, while water markets clearly serve to the parts directly involved in the transaction, the unique characteristics of water often leads to Pareto inefficient allocations that affect the environment and related economic uses. The flaw in this approach lies in the understanding that water prices and water trading schemes may be good or bad on their own (e.g. finding the "right" price). This vision changes radically when we focus on the problem, instead of the instrument. In this case addressing water management challenges is equivalent to making the multitude of decisions people do about water compatible with collective water governance goals such as curbing degradation trends or building water security for the future. These ideas provide both the basis for assessing existing incentives such as pricing and trading schemes and reshaping economic instruments to serve the objectives of an integrated water resources management.

[Research on the virtual water composition and virtual water trade for agriculture in Beijing].

PubMed

Wang, Hong-rui; Wang, Yan; Wang, Jun-hong; Dong, Yan-yan; Han, Zhao-xing

2007-12-01

Based on the irrigation norm of typical district and county, and revised by the isoline map of Chinese crops water demand, the change of crops program was analyzed as well as the agricultural water use and its GDP benefits. Then the virtual water was calculated for years. At last, the input-output method was used to calculate the trade of virtual water in Beijing. As the results, the virtual water for cereal crops has been decreasing in Beijing, from 1.832 x 10(9) m3 in 1990 to 4.283 x 10(8) m3 in 2004. Otherwise the virtual water for technical crops has been increasing, which is from 9.06 x 10(8) m3 in 1990 to 1.492 x 10(9) m3 in 2004. On the whole, the virtual water for crops has been decreasing in Beijing. From the angle of primary products Beijing is a virtual water importing area. Virtual water importing of annual average is 2.37 x 10(8) m3, which is about 5.93% of the total water of Beijing. Virtual water has been an important supplement of local real water of Beijing.

78 FR 28190 - Authorization of Production Activity; Foreign-Trade Subzone 29C; GE Appliances (Electric Water...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-14

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [B-7-2013] Authorization of Production Activity; Foreign-Trade Subzone 29C; GE Appliances (Electric Water Heaters); Louisville, Kentucky On January 7, 2013, GE Appliances, operator of Subzone 29C in Louisville, Kentucky, submitted a notification of proposed...

Water quality monitoring for high-priority water bodies in the Sonoran Desert network

Treesearch

Terry W. Sprouse; Robert M. Emanuel; Sara A. Strorrer

2005-01-01

This paper describes a network monitoring program for “high priority” water bodies in the Sonoran Desert Network of the National Park Service. Protocols were developed for monitoring selected waters for ten of the eleven parks in the Network. Park and network staff assisted in identifying potential locations of testing sites, local priorities, and how water quality...

Vulnerability of animal trade networks to the spread of infectious diseases: a methodological approach applied to evaluation and emergency control strategies in cattle, France, 2005.

PubMed

Rautureau, S; Dufour, B; Durand, B

2011-04-01

Besides farming, trade of livestock is a major component of agricultural economy. However, the networks generated by live animal movements are the major support for the propagation of infectious agents between farms, and their structure strongly affects how fast a disease may spread. Structural characteristics may thus be indicators of network vulnerability to the spread of infectious disease. The method proposed here is based upon the analysis of specific subnetworks: the giant strongly connected components (GSCs). Their existence, size and geographic extent are used to assess network vulnerability. Their disappearance when targeted nodes are removed allows studying how network vulnerability may be controlled under emergency conditions. The method was applied to the cattle trade network in France, 2005. Giant strongly connected components were present and widely spread all over the country in yearly, monthly and weekly networks. Among several tested approaches, the most efficient way to make GSCs disappear was based on the ranking of nodes by decreasing betweenness centrality (the proportion of shortest paths between nodes on which a specific node lies). Giant strongly connected components disappearance was obtained after removal of <1% of network nodes. Under emergency conditions, suspending animal trade activities in a small subset of holdings may thus allow to control the spread of an infectious disease through the animal trade network. Nodes representing markets and dealers were widely affected by these simulated control measures. This confirms their importance as 'hubs' for infectious diseases spread. Besides emergency conditions, specific sensitization and preventive measures should be dedicated to this population. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Water resources: Research network to track alpine water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The water cycle in alpine environments worldwide supplies fresh water to vast downstream areas inhabited by more than half of humanity. The International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology (INARCH) was launched this year by the Global Energy and Water Exchanges project of the World Clim...

Trade-offs between water transport capacity and drought resistance in neotropical canopy liana and tree species.

PubMed

De Guzman, Mark E; Santiago, Louis S; Schnitzer, Stefan A; Álvarez-Cansino, Leonor

2017-10-01

In tropical forest canopies, it is critical for upper shoots to efficiently provide water to leaves for physiological function while safely preventing loss of hydraulic conductivity due to cavitation during periods of soil water deficit or high evaporative demand. We compared hydraulic physiology of upper canopy trees and lianas in a seasonally dry tropical forest to test whether trade-offs between safety and efficiency of water transport shape differences in hydraulic function between these two major tropical woody growth forms. We found that lianas showed greater maximum stem-specific hydraulic conductivity than trees, but lost hydraulic conductivity at less negative water potentials than trees, resulting in a negative correlation and trade-off between safety and efficiency of water transport. Lianas also exhibited greater diurnal changes in leaf water potential than trees. The magnitude of diurnal water potential change was negatively correlated with sapwood capacitance, indicating that lianas are highly reliant on conducting capability to maintain leaf water status, whereas trees relied more on stored water in stems to maintain leaf water status. Leaf nitrogen concentration was related to maximum leaf-specific hydraulic conductivity only for lianas suggesting that greater water transport capacity is more tied to leaf processes in lianas compared to trees. Our results are consistent with a trade-off between safety and efficiency of water transport and may have implications for increasing liana abundance in neotropical forests. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Organization and scaling in water supply networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Likwan; Karney, Bryan W.

2017-12-01

Public water supply is one of the society's most vital resources and most costly infrastructures. Traditional concepts of these networks capture their engineering identity as isolated, deterministic hydraulic units, but overlook their physics identity as related entities in a probabilistic, geographic ensemble, characterized by size organization and property scaling. Although discoveries of allometric scaling in natural supply networks (organisms and rivers) raised the prospect for similar findings in anthropogenic supplies, so far such a finding has not been reported in public water or related civic resource supplies. Examining an empirical ensemble of large number and wide size range, we show that water supply networks possess self-organized size abundance and theory-explained allometric scaling in spatial, infrastructural, and resource- and emission-flow properties. These discoveries establish scaling physics for water supply networks and may lead to novel applications in resource- and jurisdiction-scale water governance.

The air, carbon, water synergies and trade-offs in China's natural gas industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Y.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Höglund-Isaksson, L.; Wagner, F.; Byers, E.

2017-12-01

Both energy production and consumption can simultaneously affect regional air quality, local water stress, and the global climate. Identifying air, carbon and water impacts of various energy sources and end-uses is important in determining the relative merits of various energy policies. Here, we examine the air-carbon-water interdependencies of China's six major natural gas source choices (domestic conventional natural gas, domestic coal-based synthetic natural gas (SNG), domestic shale gas, imported liquefied natural gas, imported Russian pipeline gas, and imported Central Asian pipeline gas) and three end-use coal-to-gas deployment strategies (with substitution strategies that focus in turn on air quality, carbon, and water) in 2020. On the supply side, we find that gas sources other than SNG offer national air-carbon-water co-benefits. However, we find striking air-carbon/water trade-offs for SNG at the national scale. Moreover, the use of SNG significantly increases water demand and carbon emissions in regions already suffering from the most severe water stress and the highest per capita carbon footprint. On the end-use side, gas substitution for coal can result in enormous variations in air quality, carbon, and water impacts, with notable air-carbon synergies but air-water trade-offs. Our study finds that, except for SNG, end-use choices generally have a much larger influence on air quality, carbon emissions and water use than do gas source choices. Simultaneous consideration of air, carbon, and water impacts is necessary in designing both beneficial energy development and deployment policies.

Trade-offs and Opportunities in the Nexus of Energy and Water-for-Food

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosegrant, M. W.

2015-12-01

The world economy is under pressure for greater, more efficient and more sustainable use of natural resources to meet complementary and competing objectives in the energy, water, and food sectors. Increasing national, regional, and seasonal water scarcities in much of the world pose severe challenges for national governments, the international development community, and ultimately, for individual water users. This presentation assesses the nexus between energy and water, with an emphasis on the interactions and trade-offs between energy and water for food production. It examines the impact of biofuel production on water quantity and quality, and the potential for hydropower potential to meet energy challenges while expanding irrigation water supplies and food production potential, thereby enhancing global food security. Biofuel production affects both water quantity and quality. Expanding production of biofuels—through either crop-based production systems or direct biomass production—can significantly increase demand for water as more acreage is planted or the crop mix begins to favor thirstier crops; water demand for bio-refineries creates additional competition with agricultural water use. Water quality can also be adversely affected by increased acreage for fertilizer-intensive crops, such as maize or sugarcane, which can result in increased nitrate run-off and soil erosion. Hydropower has become a relatively forgotten part of the energy-water security picture that deserves renewed attention. Unlike biofuels, hydropower does not normally compete with agricultural water. Instead, development of hydropower could complement food production by developing dam structures and power that also provide irrigation water and support its distribution for growing food crops. But balanced hydropower policies require consideration of potential trade-offs with environmental and social impacts.

U.S. Geological Survey Catskill/Delaware Water-Quality Network: Water-Quality Report Water Year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

McHale, Michael R.; Siemion, Jason

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey operates a 60-station streamgaging network in the New York City Catskill/Delaware Water Supply System. Water-quality samples were collected at 13 of the stations in the Catskill/Delaware streamgaging network to provide resource managers with water-quality and water-quantity data from the water-supply system that supplies about 85 percent of the water needed by the more than 9 million residents of New York City. This report summarizes water-quality data collected at those 13 stations plus one additional station operated as a part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Long-Term Monitoring Network for the 2006 water year (October 1, 2005 to September 30, 2006). An average of 62 water-quality samples were collected at each station during the 2006 water year, including grab samples collected every other week and storm samples collected with automated samplers. On average, 8 storms were sampled at each station during the 2006 water year. The 2006 calendar year was the second warmest on record and the summer of 2006 was the wettest on record for the northeastern United States. A large storm on June 26-28, 2006, caused extensive flooding in the western part of the network where record peak flows were measured at several watersheds.

Degree-Strength Correlation Reveals Anomalous Trading Behavior

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Wang, Zhao-Yang

2012-01-01

Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. Many efforts have been made to detect manipulation in stock markets. However, it is still an open problem to identify the fraudulent traders, especially when they collude with each other. In this paper, we focus on the problem of identifying the anomalous traders using the transaction data of eight manipulated stocks and forty-four non-manipulated stocks during a one-year period. By analyzing the trading networks of stocks, we find that the trading networks of manipulated stocks exhibit significantly higher degree-strength correlation than the trading networks of non-manipulated stocks and the randomized trading networks. We further propose a method to detect anomalous traders of manipulated stocks based on statistical significance analysis of degree-strength correlation. Experimental results demonstrate that our method is effective at distinguishing the manipulated stocks from non-manipulated ones. Our method outperforms the traditional weight-threshold method at identifying the anomalous traders in manipulated stocks. More importantly, our method is difficult to be fooled by colluded traders. PMID:23082114

Degree-strength correlation reveals anomalous trading behavior.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Wang, Zhao-Yang

2012-01-01

Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. Many efforts have been made to detect manipulation in stock markets. However, it is still an open problem to identify the fraudulent traders, especially when they collude with each other. In this paper, we focus on the problem of identifying the anomalous traders using the transaction data of eight manipulated stocks and forty-four non-manipulated stocks during a one-year period. By analyzing the trading networks of stocks, we find that the trading networks of manipulated stocks exhibit significantly higher degree-strength correlation than the trading networks of non-manipulated stocks and the randomized trading networks. We further propose a method to detect anomalous traders of manipulated stocks based on statistical significance analysis of degree-strength correlation. Experimental results demonstrate that our method is effective at distinguishing the manipulated stocks from non-manipulated ones. Our method outperforms the traditional weight-threshold method at identifying the anomalous traders in manipulated stocks. More importantly, our method is difficult to be fooled by colluded traders.

Network Dynamics Underlying Speed-Accuracy Trade-Offs in Response to Errors

PubMed Central

Agam, Yigal; Carey, Caitlin; Barton, Jason J. S.; Dyckman, Kara A.; Lee, Adrian K. C.; Vangel, Mark; Manoach, Dara S.

2013-01-01

The ability to dynamically and rapidly adjust task performance based on its outcome is fundamental to adaptive, flexible behavior. Over trials of a task, responses speed up until an error is committed and after the error responses slow down. These dynamic adjustments serve to optimize performance and are well-described by the speed-accuracy trade-off (SATO) function. We hypothesized that SATOs based on outcomes reflect reciprocal changes in the allocation of attention between the internal milieu and the task-at-hand, as indexed by reciprocal changes in activity between the default and dorsal attention brain networks. We tested this hypothesis using functional MRI to examine the pattern of network activation over a series of trials surrounding and including an error. We further hypothesized that these reciprocal changes in network activity are coordinated by the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and would rely on the structural integrity of its white matter connections. Using diffusion tensor imaging, we examined whether fractional anisotropy of the posterior cingulum bundle correlated with the magnitude of reciprocal changes in network activation around errors. As expected, reaction time (RT) in trials surrounding errors was consistent with predictions from the SATO function. Activation in the default network was: (i) inversely correlated with RT, (ii) greater on trials before than after an error and (iii) maximal at the error. In contrast, activation in the right intraparietal sulcus of the dorsal attention network was (i) positively correlated with RT and showed the opposite pattern: (ii) less activation before than after an error and (iii) the least activation on the error. Greater integrity of the posterior cingulum bundle was associated with greater reciprocity in network activation around errors. These findings suggest that dynamic changes in attention to the internal versus external milieu in response to errors underlie SATOs in RT and are mediated by the PCC

Progress and lessons learned from water-quality monitoring networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, Donna N.; Ludtke, Amy S.

2017-01-01

Stream-quality monitoring networks in the United States were initiated and expanded after passage of successive federal water-pollution control laws from 1948 to 1972. The first networks addressed information gaps on the extent and severity of stream pollution and served as early warning systems for spills. From 1965 to 1972, monitoring networks expanded to evaluate compliance with stream standards, track emerging issues, and assess water-quality status and trends. After 1972, concerns arose regarding the ability of monitoring networks to determine if water quality was getting better or worse and why. As a result, monitoring networks adopted a hydrologic systems approach targeted to key water-quality issues, accounted for human and natural factors affecting water quality, innovated new statistical methods, and introduced geographic information systems and models that predict water quality at unmeasured locations. Despite improvements, national-scale monitoring networks have declined over time. Only about 1%, or 217, of more than 36,000 US Geological Survey monitoring sites sampled from 1975 to 2014 have been operated throughout the four decades since passage of the 1972 Clean Water Act. Efforts to sustain monitoring networks are important because these networks have collected information crucial to the description of water-quality trends over time and are providing information against which to evaluate future trends.

Evolution of community structure in the world trade web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzekina, I.; Danthi, K.; Rockmore, D. N.

2008-06-01

In this note we study the bilateral merchandise trade flows between 186 countries over the 1948 2005 period using data from the International Monetary Fund. We use the network visualization package Pajek to identify network structure and behavior across thresholds and over time. In particular, we focus on the evolution of trade “islands” in a world trade network in which countries are linked with directed edges weighted according to the fraction of total dollars sent from one country to another. We find mixed evidence for globalization.

Multinetwork of international trade: A commodity-specific analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barigozzi, Matteo; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Garlaschelli, Diego

2010-04-01

We study the topological properties of the multinetwork of commodity-specific trade relations among world countries over the 1992-2003 period, comparing them with those of the aggregate-trade network, known in the literature as the international-trade network (ITN). We show that link-weight distributions of commodity-specific networks are extremely heterogeneous and (quasi) log normality of aggregate link-weight distribution is generated as a sheer outcome of aggregation. Commodity-specific networks also display average connectivity, clustering, and centrality levels very different from their aggregate counterpart. We also find that ITN complete connectivity is mainly achieved through the presence of many weak links that keep commodity-specific networks together and that the correlation structure existing between topological statistics within each single network is fairly robust and mimics that of the aggregate network. Finally, we employ cross-commodity correlations between link weights to build hierarchies of commodities. Our results suggest that on the top of a relatively time-invariant “intrinsic” taxonomy (based on inherent between-commodity similarities), the roles played by different commodities in the ITN have become more and more dissimilar, possibly as the result of an increased trade specialization. Our approach is general and can be used to characterize any multinetwork emerging as a nontrivial aggregation of several interdependent layers.

The hidden hyperbolic geometry of international trade: World Trade Atlas 1870-2013.

PubMed

García-Pérez, Guillermo; Boguñá, Marián; Allard, Antoine; Serrano, M Ángeles

2016-09-16

Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870-2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channels, are such that the closer countries are in trade space, the greater their chance of becoming connected. The atlas provides us with information regarding the long-term evolution of the international trade system and demonstrates that, in terms of trade, the world is not flat but hyperbolic, as a reflection of its complex architecture. The departure from flatness has been increasing since World War I, meaning that differences in trade distances are growing and trade networks are becoming more hierarchical. Smaller-scale economies are moving away from other countries except for the largest economies; meanwhile those large economies are increasing their chances of becoming connected worldwide. At the same time, Preferential Trade Agreements do not fit in perfectly with natural communities within the trade space and have not necessarily reduced internal trade barriers. We discuss an interpretation in terms of globalization, hierarchization, and localization; three simultaneous forces that shape the international trade system.

The hidden hyperbolic geometry of international trade: World Trade Atlas 1870-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Pérez, Guillermo; Boguñá, Marián; Allard, Antoine; Serrano, M. Ángeles

2016-09-01

Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870-2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channels, are such that the closer countries are in trade space, the greater their chance of becoming connected. The atlas provides us with information regarding the long-term evolution of the international trade system and demonstrates that, in terms of trade, the world is not flat but hyperbolic, as a reflection of its complex architecture. The departure from flatness has been increasing since World War I, meaning that differences in trade distances are growing and trade networks are becoming more hierarchical. Smaller-scale economies are moving away from other countries except for the largest economies; meanwhile those large economies are increasing their chances of becoming connected worldwide. At the same time, Preferential Trade Agreements do not fit in perfectly with natural communities within the trade space and have not necessarily reduced internal trade barriers. We discuss an interpretation in terms of globalization, hierarchization, and localization; three simultaneous forces that shape the international trade system.

Implications of the cattle trade network in Cameroon for regional disease prevention and control

PubMed Central

Motta, Paolo; Porphyre, Thibaud; Handel, Ian; Hamman, Saidou M.; Ngu Ngwa, Victor; Tanya, Vincent; Morgan, Kenton; Christley, Rob; Bronsvoort, Barend M. deC.

2017-01-01

Movement of live animals is a major risk factor for the spread of livestock diseases and zoonotic infections. Understanding contact patterns is key to informing cost-effective surveillance and control strategies. In West and Central Africa some of the most rapid urbanization globally is expected to increase the demand for animal-source foods and the need for safer and more efficient animal production. Livestock trading points represent a strategic contact node in the dissemination of multiple pathogens. From October 2014 to May 2015 official transaction records were collected and a questionnaire-based survey was carried out in cattle markets throughout Western and Central-Northern Cameroon. The data were used to analyse the cattle trade network including a total of 127 livestock markets within Cameroon and five neighboring countries. This study explores for the first time the influence of animal trade on infectious disease spread in the region. The investigations showed that national borders do not present a barrier against pathogen dissemination and that non-neighbouring countries are epidemiologically connected, highlighting the importance of a regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control. Furthermore, these findings provide evidence for the benefit of strategic risk-based approaches for disease monitoring, surveillance and control, as well as for communication and training purposes through targeting key regions, highly connected livestock markets and central trading links. PMID:28266589

Implications of the cattle trade network in Cameroon for regional disease prevention and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motta, Paolo; Porphyre, Thibaud; Handel, Ian; Hamman, Saidou M.; Ngu Ngwa, Victor; Tanya, Vincent; Morgan, Kenton; Christley, Rob; Bronsvoort, Barend M. Dec.

2017-03-01

Movement of live animals is a major risk factor for the spread of livestock diseases and zoonotic infections. Understanding contact patterns is key to informing cost-effective surveillance and control strategies. In West and Central Africa some of the most rapid urbanization globally is expected to increase the demand for animal-source foods and the need for safer and more efficient animal production. Livestock trading points represent a strategic contact node in the dissemination of multiple pathogens. From October 2014 to May 2015 official transaction records were collected and a questionnaire-based survey was carried out in cattle markets throughout Western and Central-Northern Cameroon. The data were used to analyse the cattle trade network including a total of 127 livestock markets within Cameroon and five neighboring countries. This study explores for the first time the influence of animal trade on infectious disease spread in the region. The investigations showed that national borders do not present a barrier against pathogen dissemination and that non-neighbouring countries are epidemiologically connected, highlighting the importance of a regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control. Furthermore, these findings provide evidence for the benefit of strategic risk-based approaches for disease monitoring, surveillance and control, as well as for communication and training purposes through targeting key regions, highly connected livestock markets and central trading links.

Coping with increasing water and land resources limitation for meeting world's food needs: the role of virtual water and virtual land trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soriano, Barbara; Garrido, Alberto; Novo, Paula

2013-04-01

Increasing pressure to expand agriculture production is giving rise to renewed interest to obtain access to land and water resources in the world. Water footprint evaluations show the importance of green water in global food trade and production. Green water and land are almost inseparable resources. In this work we analyse the role of foreign direct investment and cooperation programmes from developed countries in developing counties, focusing on virtual water trade and associated resources. We develop econometric models with the aim to explain observed trends in virtual water exports from developing countries as explained by the inverse flow of investments and cooperation programmes. We analyse the main 19 emerging food exporters, from Africa, Asia and America, using 15 years of data. Results show that land per capita availability and foreign direct investments explain observed flows of virtual water exports. However, there is no causality with these and flows cooperation investments. Our analysis sheds light on the underlying forces explaining the phenomenon of land grab, which is the appropriation of land access in developing countries by food-importers.

Simulating water markets with transaction costs

PubMed Central

Erfani, Tohid; Binions, Olga; Harou, Julien J

2014-01-01

This paper presents an optimization model to simulate short-term pair-wise spot-market trading of surface water abstraction licenses (water rights). The approach uses a node-arc multicommodity formulation that tracks individual supplier-receiver transactions in a water resource network. This enables accounting for transaction costs between individual buyer-seller pairs and abstractor-specific rules and behaviors using constraints. Trades are driven by economic demand curves that represent each abstractor's time-varying water demand. The purpose of the proposed model is to assess potential hydrologic and economic outcomes of water markets and aid policy makers in designing water market regulations. The model is applied to the Great Ouse River basin in Eastern England. The model assesses the potential weekly water trades and abstractions that could occur in a normal and a dry year. Four sectors (public water supply, energy, agriculture, and industrial) are included in the 94 active licensed water diversions. Each license's unique environmental restrictions are represented and weekly economic water demand curves are estimated. Rules encoded as constraints represent current water management realities and plausible stakeholder-informed water market behaviors. Results show buyers favor sellers who can supply large volumes to minimize transactions. The energy plant cooling and agricultural licenses, often restricted from obtaining water at times when it generates benefits, benefit most from trades. Assumptions and model limitations are discussed. Key Points Transaction tracking hydro-economic optimization models simulate water markets Proposed model formulation incorporates transaction costs and trading behavior Water markets benefit users with the most restricted water access PMID:25598558

Simulating water markets with transaction costs.

PubMed

Erfani, Tohid; Binions, Olga; Harou, Julien J

2014-06-01

This paper presents an optimization model to simulate short-term pair-wise spot-market trading of surface water abstraction licenses (water rights). The approach uses a node-arc multicommodity formulation that tracks individual supplier-receiver transactions in a water resource network. This enables accounting for transaction costs between individual buyer-seller pairs and abstractor-specific rules and behaviors using constraints. Trades are driven by economic demand curves that represent each abstractor's time-varying water demand. The purpose of the proposed model is to assess potential hydrologic and economic outcomes of water markets and aid policy makers in designing water market regulations. The model is applied to the Great Ouse River basin in Eastern England. The model assesses the potential weekly water trades and abstractions that could occur in a normal and a dry year. Four sectors (public water supply, energy, agriculture, and industrial) are included in the 94 active licensed water diversions. Each license's unique environmental restrictions are represented and weekly economic water demand curves are estimated. Rules encoded as constraints represent current water management realities and plausible stakeholder-informed water market behaviors. Results show buyers favor sellers who can supply large volumes to minimize transactions. The energy plant cooling and agricultural licenses, often restricted from obtaining water at times when it generates benefits, benefit most from trades. Assumptions and model limitations are discussed. Transaction tracking hydro-economic optimization models simulate water marketsProposed model formulation incorporates transaction costs and trading behaviorWater markets benefit users with the most restricted water access.

Model development of a participatory Bayesian network for coupling ecosystem services into integrated water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Mao, Donglei; Zhang, Zhiwei

2017-11-01

There is an increasing consensus on the importance of coupling ecosystem services (ES) into integrated water resource management (IWRM), due to a wide range of benefits to human from the ES. This paper proposes an ES-based IWRM framework within which a participatory Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to assist with the coupling between ES and IWRM. The framework includes three steps: identifying water-related services of ecosystems; analysis of the tradeoff and synergy among users of water; and ES-based IWRM implementation using the participatory BN model. We present the development, evaluation and application of the participatory BN model with the involvement of four participant groups (stakeholders, water manager, water management experts, and research team) in Qira oasis area, Northwest China. As a typical catchment-scale region, the Qira oasis area is facing severe water competition between the demands of human activities and natural ecosystems. Results demonstrate that the BN model developed provides effective integration of ES into a quantitative IWMR framework via public negotiation and feedback. The network results, sensitivity evaluation, and management scenarios are broadly accepted by the participant groups. The intervention scenarios from the model conclude that any water management measure remains unable to sustain the ecosystem health in water-related ES. Greater cooperation among the stakeholders is highly necessary for dealing with such water conflicts. In particular, a proportion of the agricultural water saved through improving water-use efficiency should be transferred to natural ecosystems via water trade. The BN model developed is appropriate for areas throughout the world in which there is intense competition for water between human activities and ecosystems.

Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR) User Manual

EPA Science Inventory

The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR) is a new Python package designed to simulate and analyze resilience of water distribution networks to a variety of disaster scenarios. WNTR can help water utilities to explore the capacity of their systems to handle disasters and gui...

Trading Rules on Stock Markets Using Genetic Network Programming with Reinforcement Learning and Importance Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabu, Shingo; Hirasawa, Kotaro; Furuzuki, Takayuki

Genetic Network Programming (GNP) is an evolutionary computation which represents its solutions using graph structures. Since GNP can create quite compact programs and has an implicit memory function, it has been clarified that GNP works well especially in dynamic environments. In addition, a study on creating trading rules on stock markets using GNP with Importance Index (GNP-IMX) has been done. IMX is a new element which is a criterion for decision making. In this paper, we combined GNP-IMX with Actor-Critic (GNP-IMX&AC) and create trading rules on stock markets. Evolution-based methods evolve their programs after enough period of time because they must calculate fitness values, however reinforcement learning can change programs during the period, therefore the trading rules can be created efficiently. In the simulation, the proposed method is trained using the stock prices of 10 brands in 2002 and 2003. Then the generalization ability is tested using the stock prices in 2004. The simulation results show that the proposed method can obtain larger profits than GNP-IMX without AC and Buy&Hold.

The hidden hyperbolic geometry of international trade: World Trade Atlas 1870–2013

PubMed Central

García-Pérez, Guillermo; Boguñá, Marián; Allard, Antoine; Serrano, M. Ángeles

2016-01-01

Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870–2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channels, are such that the closer countries are in trade space, the greater their chance of becoming connected. The atlas provides us with information regarding the long-term evolution of the international trade system and demonstrates that, in terms of trade, the world is not flat but hyperbolic, as a reflection of its complex architecture. The departure from flatness has been increasing since World War I, meaning that differences in trade distances are growing and trade networks are becoming more hierarchical. Smaller-scale economies are moving away from other countries except for the largest economies; meanwhile those large economies are increasing their chances of becoming connected worldwide. At the same time, Preferential Trade Agreements do not fit in perfectly with natural communities within the trade space and have not necessarily reduced internal trade barriers. We discuss an interpretation in terms of globalization, hierarchization, and localization; three simultaneous forces that shape the international trade system. PMID:27633649

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective

PubMed Central

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008–09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability. PMID:26804492

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective.

PubMed

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-25

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

WETLANDS AND WATER QUALITY TRADING: REVIEW OF CURRENT SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC PRACTICES WITH SELECTED CASE STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

The study evaluates the technical, economic, and administrative aspects of establishing water quality trading (WQT) programs where the nutrient removal capacity of wetlands is used to improve water quality. WQT is a potentially viable approach for wastewater dischargers to cost-e...

Cyber-Physical Trade-Offs in Distributed Detection Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; Yao, David K. Y.; Chin, J. C.

2010-01-01

We consider a network of sensors that measure the scalar intensity due to the background or a source combined with background, inside a two-dimensional monitoring area. The sensor measurements may be random due to the underlying nature of the source and background or due to sensor errors or both. The detection problem is infer the presence of a source of unknown intensity and location based on sensor measurements. In the conventional approach, detection decisions are made at the individual sensors, which are then combined at the fusion center, for example using the majority rule. With increased communication and computation costs,more » we show that a more complex fusion algorithm based on measurements achieves better detection performance under smooth and non-smooth source intensity functions, Lipschitz conditions on probability ratios and a minimum packing number for the state-space. We show that these conditions for trade-offs between the cyber costs and physical detection performance are applicable for two detection problems: (i) point radiation sources amidst background radiation, and (ii) sources and background with Gaussian distributions.« less

Capturing Ecosystem Services, Stakeholders' Preferences and Trade-Offs in Coastal Aquaculture Decisions: A Bayesian Belief Network Application

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Laetitia Helene Marie; Brugere, Cecile

2013-01-01

Aquaculture activities are embedded in complex social-ecological systems. However, aquaculture development decisions have tended to be driven by revenue generation, failing to account for interactions with the environment and the full value of the benefits derived from services provided by local ecosystems. Trade-offs resulting from changes in ecosystem services provision and associated impacts on livelihoods are also often overlooked. This paper proposes an innovative application of Bayesian belief networks - influence diagrams - as a decision support system for mediating trade-offs arising from the development of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand. Senior experts were consulted (n = 12) and primary farm data on the economics of shrimp farming (n = 20) were collected alongside secondary information on ecosystem services, in order to construct and populate the network. Trade-offs were quantitatively assessed through the generation of a probabilistic impact matrix. This matrix captures nonlinearity and uncertainty and describes the relative performance and impacts of shrimp farming management scenarios on local livelihoods. It also incorporates export revenues and provision and value of ecosystem services such as coastal protection and biodiversity. This research shows that Bayesian belief modeling can support complex decision-making on pathways for sustainable coastal aquaculture development and thus contributes to the debate on the role of aquaculture in social-ecological resilience and economic development. PMID:24155876

Trading Water Conservation Credits: A Coordinative Approach for Enhanced Urban Water Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, P.; Ajami, N. K.

2016-12-01

Water utilities in arid and semi-arid regions are increasingly relying on water use efficiency and conservation to extend the availability of supplies. Despite spatial and institutional inter-dependency of many service providers, these demand-side management initiatives have traditionally been tackled by individual utilities operating in a silo. In this study, we introduce a new approach to water conservation that addresses regional synergies—a novel system of tradable water conservation credits. Under the proposed approach, utilities have the flexibility to invest in water conservation measures that are appropriate for their specific service area. When utilities have insufficient capacity for local cost-effective measures, they may opt to purchase credits, contributing to fund subsidies for utilities that do have that capacity and can provide the credits, while the region as whole benefits from more reliable water supplies. While similar programs have been used to address water quality concerns, to our knowledge this is one of the first studies proposing tradable credits for incentivizing water conservation. Through mathematical optimization, this study estimates the potential benefits of a trading program and demonstrates the institutional and economic characteristics needed for such a policy to be viable, including a proposed web platform to facilitate transparent regional planning, data-driven decision-making, and enhanced coordination of utilities. We explore the impacts of defining conservation targets tailored to local realities of utilities, setting credit prices, and different policy configurations. We apply these models to the case study of water utility members of the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency. Preliminary work shows that the diverse characteristics of these utilities present opportunities for the region to achieve conservation goals while maximizing the benefits to individual utilities through more flexible coordinative efforts.

The health impact of trade and investment agreements: a quantitative systematic review and network co-citation analysis.

PubMed

Barlow, Pepita; McKee, Martin; Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David

2017-03-08

Regional trade agreements are major international policy instruments that shape macro-economic and political systems. There is widespread debate as to whether and how these agreements pose risks to public health. Here we perform a comprehensive systematic review of quantitative studies of the health impact of trade and investment agreements. We identified studies from searches in PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Global Health Online. Research articles were eligible for inclusion if they were quantitative studies of the health impacts of trade and investment agreements or policy. We systematically reviewed study findings, evaluated quality using the Quality Assessment Tool from the Effective Public Health Practice Project, and performed network citation analysis to study disciplinary siloes. Seventeen quantitative studies met our inclusion criteria. There was consistent evidence that implementing trade agreements was associated with increased consumption of processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages. Granting import licenses for patented drugs was associated with increased access to pharmaceuticals. Implementing trade agreements and associated policies was also correlated with higher cardiovascular disease incidence and higher Body Mass Index (BMI), whilst correlations with tobacco consumption, under-five mortality, maternal mortality, and life expectancy were inconclusive. Overall, the quality of studies is weak or moderately weak, and co-citation analysis revealed a relative isolation of public health from economics. We identified limitations in existing studies which preclude definitive conclusions of the health impacts of regional trade and investment agreements. Few address unobserved confounding, and many possible consequences and mechanisms linking trade and investment agreements to health remain poorly understood. Results from our co-citation analysis suggest scope for greater interdisciplinary collaboration. Notwithstanding these limitations, our

Drinking Water and Wastewater Laboratory Networks

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This website provides the drinking water sector with an integrated nationwide network of laboratories with the analytical capability to respond to intentional and unintentional drinking water incidents.

Applying the input-output method to account for water footprint and virtual water trade in the Haihe River basin in China.

PubMed

Zhao, Xu; Yang, Hong; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin; Qin, Yan

2010-12-01

The virtual water strategy which advocates importing water intensive products and exporting products with low water intensity is gradually accepted as one of the options for solving water crisis in severely water scarce regions. However, if we count the virtual water embodied in imported products as the water saved for a region, we might overestimate the saving by including the virtual water that is later re-exported in association with the proceeded products made from the originally imported products. This problem can be avoided by accounting for the saved water through calculating water footprint (WF) in domestic final consumptive products. In this paper, an input-output analysis (IOA) based on the water footprint accounting framework is built to account for WF and virtual water trade of final consumptive products in the water stressed Haihe River basin in China for the year 1997, 2000, and 2002. The input-output transaction tables of the three years are constructed. The results show WF of 46.57, 44.52, and 42.71 billion m(3) for the three years, respectively. These volumes are higher than the water used directly in the corresponding years in the basin. A WF intensity (WFI) indicator is then used to assess if the economic activities in the basin are consistent with the virtual water strategy. The temporal change of the WFI is also decomposed by the index number analysis method. The results showed that the basin was silently importing virtual water through the trade of raw and processed food commodities under the background of the whole economic circulation.

Description and analysis of the poultry trading network in the Lake Alaotra region, Madagascar: implications for the surveillance and control of Newcastle disease.

PubMed

Rasamoelina-Andriamanivo, H; Duboz, R; Lancelot, R; Maminiaina, O F; Jourdan, M; Rakotondramaro, T M C; Rakotonjanahary, S N; de Almeida, R Servan; Rakotondravao; Durand, B; Chevalier, V

2014-07-01

Madagascar's 36.5-million-head poultry industry holds a foremost place in its economy and the livelihood of its people. Unfortunately, regular Newcastle disease outbreaks associated with high mortality causes high losses for smallholders and threatens their livelihood. Therefore, Madagascar is seeking concrete, achievable and sustainable methods for the surveillance and the control of Newcastle disease. In this paper, we present and analyze the results of a field study conducted in Madagascar between December 2009 and December 2010. The study area was the Lac Alaotra region, a landlocked area in the north-eastern part of the country's center. Poultry trading is suspected of playing a major role in the spread of avian diseases, especially in developing countries characterized by many live-bird markets and middlemen. Therefore, the goals of our study were to: (i) describe and analyze smallholders' poultry trading network in the Lake Alaotra region using social network analysis; (ii) assess the role of the network in the spread of Newcastle disease; and (iii) propose the implementation of a targeted disease surveillance based on the characteristics of the poultry trading network. We focused our field study on the harvesting of two data sets. The first is a complete description of the poultry trading network in the landlocked area of Lac Alaotra, including a description of the poultry movements between groups of villages. The second set of data measures the occurrence of outbreaks in the same area by combining a participatory approach with an event-based surveillance method. These data were used to determine the attributes of the network, and to statistically assess the association between the position of nodes and the occurrence of outbreaks. By using social network analysis techniques combined with a classification method and a logistic model, we finally identified 3 nodes (set of villages), of the 387 in the initial network, to focus on for surveillance and control

Water dynamics in rigid ionomer networks.

PubMed

Osti, N C; Etampawala, T N; Shrestha, U M; Aryal, D; Tyagi, M; Diallo, S O; Mamontov, E; Cornelius, C J; Perahia, D

2016-12-14

The dynamics of water within ionic polymer networks formed by sulfonated poly(phenylene) (SPP), as revealed by quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QENS), is presented. These polymers are distinguished from other ionic macromolecules by their rigidity and therefore in their network structure. QENS measurements as a function of temperature as the fraction of ionic groups and humidity were varied have shown that the polymer molecules are immobile while absorbed water molecules remain dynamic. The water molecules occupy multiple sites, either bound or loosely constrained, and bounce between the two. With increasing temperature and hydration levels, the system becomes more dynamic. Water molecules remain mobile even at subzero temperatures, illustrating the applicability of the SPP membrane for selective transport over a broad temperature range.

Optimization of European call options considering physical delivery network and reservoir operation rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Wei-Chen; Hsu, Nien-Sheng; Cheng, Wen-Ming; Yeh, William W.-G.

2011-10-01

This paper develops alternative strategies for European call options for water purchase under hydrological uncertainties that can be used by water resources managers for decision making. Each alternative strategy maximizes its own objective over a selected sequence of future hydrology that is characterized by exceedance probability. Water trade provides flexibility and enhances water distribution system reliability. However, water trade between two parties in a regional water distribution system involves many issues, such as delivery network, reservoir operation rules, storage space, demand, water availability, uncertainty, and any existing contracts. An option is a security giving the right to buy or sell an asset; in our case, the asset is water. We extend a flow path-based water distribution model to include reservoir operation rules. The model simultaneously considers both the physical distribution network as well as the relationships between water sellers and buyers. We first test the model extension. Then we apply the proposed optimization model for European call options to the Tainan water distribution system in southern Taiwan. The formulation lends itself to a mixed integer linear programming model. We use the weighing method to formulate a composite function for a multiobjective problem. The proposed methodology provides water resources managers with an overall picture of water trade strategies and the consequence of each strategy. The results from the case study indicate that the strategy associated with a streamflow exceedence probability of 50% or smaller should be adopted as the reference strategy for the Tainan water distribution system.

Resilience-based optimal design of water distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suribabu, C. R.

2017-11-01

Optimal design of water distribution network is generally aimed to minimize the capital cost of the investments on tanks, pipes, pumps, and other appurtenances. Minimizing the cost of pipes is usually considered as a prime objective as its proportion in capital cost of the water distribution system project is very high. However, minimizing the capital cost of the pipeline alone may result in economical network configuration, but it may not be a promising solution in terms of resilience point of view. Resilience of the water distribution network has been considered as one of the popular surrogate measures to address ability of network to withstand failure scenarios. To improve the resiliency of the network, the pipe network optimization can be performed with two objectives, namely minimizing the capital cost as first objective and maximizing resilience measure of the configuration as secondary objective. In the present work, these two objectives are combined as single objective and optimization problem is solved by differential evolution technique. The paper illustrates the procedure for normalizing the objective functions having distinct metrics. Two of the existing resilience indices and power efficiency are considered for optimal design of water distribution network. The proposed normalized objective function is found to be efficient under weighted method of handling multi-objective water distribution design problem. The numerical results of the design indicate the importance of sizing pipe telescopically along shortest path of flow to have enhanced resiliency indices.

Simulating water markets with transaction costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfani, Tohid; Binions, Olga; Harou, Julien J.

2014-06-01

This paper presents an optimization model to simulate short-term pair-wise spot-market trading of surface water abstraction licenses (water rights). The approach uses a node-arc multicommodity formulation that tracks individual supplier-receiver transactions in a water resource network. This enables accounting for transaction costs between individual buyer-seller pairs and abstractor-specific rules and behaviors using constraints. Trades are driven by economic demand curves that represent each abstractor's time-varying water demand. The purpose of the proposed model is to assess potential hydrologic and economic outcomes of water markets and aid policy makers in designing water market regulations. The model is applied to the Great Ouse River basin in Eastern England. The model assesses the potential weekly water trades and abstractions that could occur in a normal and a dry year. Four sectors (public water supply, energy, agriculture, and industrial) are included in the 94 active licensed water diversions. Each license's unique environmental restrictions are represented and weekly economic water demand curves are estimated. Rules encoded as constraints represent current water management realities and plausible stakeholder-informed water market behaviors. Results show buyers favor sellers who can supply large volumes to minimize transactions. The energy plant cooling and agricultural licenses, often restricted from obtaining water at times when it generates benefits, benefit most from trades. Assumptions and model limitations are discussed. This article was corrected on 13 JUN 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Flood impacts on a water distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

2017-12-01

Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

Summary Report of the NSF/EPA WATERS Network Workshop

EPA Science Inventory

The National Science Foundation (NSF) and The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) organized a workshop to support The WATer and Environmental Research Systems (WATERS) Network project. The WATERS Network is a new joint initiative of the environmental engineering and hydrol...

Study on hydraulic characteristics of mine dust-proof water supply network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Quanlong; Jiang, Zhongan; Han, Shuo; Fu, Enqi

2018-01-01

In order to study the hydraulic characteristics of mine dust-proof water supply network and obtain the change rule of water consumption and water pressure, according to the similarity principle and the fluid continuity equation and energy equation, the similarity criterion of mine dust-proof water supply network is deduced, and a similar model of dust-proof water supply network is established based on the prototype of Kailuan Group, the characteristics of hydraulic parameters in water supply network are studied experimentally. The results show that water pressure at each point is a dynamic process, and there is a negative correlation between water pressure and water consumption. With the increase of water consumption, the pressure of water points show a decreasing trend. According to the structure of the pipe network and the location of the water point, the influence degree on the pressure of each point is different.

Unravelling the limits to tree height: a major role for water and nutrient trade-offs.

PubMed

Cramer, Michael D

2012-05-01

Competition for light has driven forest trees to grow exceedingly tall, but the lack of a single universal limit to tree height indicates multiple interacting environmental limitations. Because soil nutrient availability is determined by both nutrient concentrations and soil water, water and nutrient availabilities may interact in determining realised nutrient availability and consequently tree height. In SW Australia, which is characterised by nutrient impoverished soils that support some of the world's tallest forests, total [P] and water availability were independently correlated with tree height (r = 0.42 and 0.39, respectively). However, interactions between water availability and each of total [P], pH and [Mg] contributed to a multiple linear regression model of tree height (r = 0.72). A boosted regression tree model showed that maximum tree height was correlated with water availability (24%), followed by soil properties including total P (11%), Mg (10%) and total N (9%), amongst others, and that there was an interaction between water availability and total [P] in determining maximum tree height. These interactions indicated a trade-off between water and P availability in determining maximum tree height in SW Australia. This is enabled by a species assemblage capable of growing tall and surviving (some) disturbances. The mechanism for this trade-off is suggested to be through water enabling mass-flow and diffusive mobility of P, particularly of relatively mobile organic P, although water interactions with microbial activity could also play a role.

Virtual water trade patterns in relation to environmental and socioeconomic factors: A case study for Tunisia.

PubMed

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten S; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2018-02-01

Growing water demands put increasing pressure on local water resources, especially in water-short countries. Virtual water trade can play a key role in filling the gap between local demand and supply of water-intensive commodities. This study aims to analyse the dynamics in virtual water trade of Tunisia in relation to environmental and socio-economic factors such as GDP, irrigated land, precipitation, population and water scarcity. The water footprint of crop production is estimated using AquaCrop for six crops over the period 1981-2010. Net virtual water import (NVWI) is quantified at yearly basis. Regression models are used to investigate dynamics in NVWI in relation to the selected factors. The results show that NVWI during the study period for the selected crops is not influenced by blue water scarcity. NVWI correlates in two alternative models to either population and precipitation (model I) or to GDP and irrigated area (model II). The models are better in explaining NVWI of staple crops (wheat, barley, potatoes) than NVWI of cash crops (dates, olives, tomatoes). Using model I, we are able to explain both trends and inter-annual variability for rain-fed crops. Model II performs better for irrigated crops and is able to explain trends significantly; no significant relation is found, however, with variables hypothesized to represent inter-annual variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Airborne Lidar Observations of Water Vapor Variability in the Northern Atlantic Trades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiemle, Christoph; Groß, Silke; Wirth, Martin; Bugliaro, Luca

2017-04-01

During the NARVAL (Next Generation Aircraft Remote Sensing for Validation Studies) field experiments in December 2013 and August 2016 the DLR lidar WALES (Water vapor Lidar Experiment in Space) was operated on board the German research aircraft HALO. The lidar simultaneously provided two-dimensional curtains of atmospheric backscatter and humidity along the flight track with high accuracy and spatial resolution, in order to help improve our knowledge on the coupling between water vapor, clouds, and circulation in the trades. The variability of water vapor, ubiquitous in our measurements, poses challenges to climate models because it acts on the small-scale low-cloud cover. Aloft, the very dry free troposphere in the subsiding branch of the Hadley cell acts as an open window in a greenhouse, efficiently cooling the lower troposphere. Secondary circulations between radiatively heated and cooled regions are supposed to occur, adding complexity to the situation. After recently having identified them to be mainly responsible for the uncertainty in global climate sensitivity, such interactions between shallow convection, circulation and radiation are at the heart of present scientific debate, endorsed by the WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) "Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity". Out of the wealth of about 30 winter and 60 summer flight hours totaling 75000 km of data over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean east of Barbados, several representative lidar segments from different flights are presented, together with Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images and dropsonde profiles. All observations indicate high heterogeneity of the humidity in the lowest 5 km, as well as high variability of the depth of the cloud layer (1 - 2 km thick) and of the sub-cloud boundary layer ( 1 km thick). Layer depths and partial water vapor columns within the layers may vary by up to a factor of 2, and on a large range of horizontal scales. Occasionally, very dry, up

Water-carbon trade-off in China's coal power industry.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Mo, Hongpin; Zhao, Zhongnan; Liu, Zhu

2014-10-07

The energy sector is increasingly facing water scarcity constraints in many regions around the globe, especially in China, where the unprecedented large-scale construction of coal-fired thermal power plants is taking place in its extremely arid northwest regions. As a response to water scarcity, air-cooled coal power plants have experienced dramatic diffusion in China since the middle 2000s. By the end of 2012, air-cooled coal-fired thermal power plants in China amounted to 112 GW, making up 14% of China's thermal power generation capacity. But the water conservation benefit of air-cooled units is achieved at the cost of lower thermal efficiency and consequently higher carbon emission intensity. We estimate that in 2012 the deployment of air-cooled units contributed an additional 24.3-31.9 million tonnes of CO2 emissions (equivalent to 0.7-1.0% of the total CO2 emissions by China's electric power sector), while saving 832-942 million m(3) of consumptive water use (about 60% of the total annual water use of Beijing) when compared to a scenario with water-cooled plants. Additional CO2 emissions from air-cooled plants largely offset the CO2 emissions reduction benefits from Chinese policies of retiring small and outdated coal plants. This water-carbon trade-off is poised to become even more significant by 2020, as air-cooled units are expected to grow by a factor of 2-260 GW, accounting for 22% of China's total coal-fired power generation capacity.

Developing the greatest Blue Economy: Water productivity, fresh water depletion, and virtual water trade in the Great Lakes basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A. S.; Ruddell, B. L.; Mubako, S. T.

2016-12-01

The Great Lakes basin hosts the world's most abundant surface fresh water reserve. Historically an industrial and natural resource powerhouse, the region has suffered economic stagnation in recent decades. Meanwhile, growing water resource scarcity around the world is creating pressure on water-intensive human activities. This situation creates the potential for the Great Lakes region to sustainably utilize its relative water wealth for economic benefit. We combine economic production and trade datasets with water consumption data and models of surface water depletion in the region. We find that, on average, the current economy does not create significant impacts on surface waters, but there is some risk that unregulated large water uses can create environmental flow impacts if they are developed in the wrong locations. Water uses drawing on deep groundwater or the Great Lakes themselves are unlikely to create a significant depletion, and discharge of groundwater withdrawals to surface waters offsets most surface water depletion. This relative abundance of surface water means that science-based management of large water uses to avoid accidentally creating "hotspots" is likely to be successful in avoiding future impacts, even if water use is significantly increased. Commercial water uses are the most productive, with thermoelectric, mining, and agricultural water uses in the lowest tier of water productivity. Surprisingly for such a water-abundant economy, the region is a net importer of water-derived goods and services. This, combined with the abundance of surface water, suggests that the region's water-based economy has room to grow in the 21st century.

Multiregional input-output model for China's farm land and water use.

PubMed

Guo, Shan; Shen, Geoffrey Qiping

2015-01-06

Land and water are the two main drivers of agricultural production. Pressure on farm land and water resources is increasing in China due to rising food demand. Domestic trade affects China's regional farm land and water use by distributing resources associated with the production of goods and services. This study constructs a multiregional input-output model to simultaneously analyze China's farm land and water uses embodied in consumption and interregional trade. Results show a great similarity for both China's farm land and water endowments. Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, and Yunnan are the most important drivers of farm land and water consumption in China, even though they have relatively few land and water resource endowments. Significant net transfers of embodied farm land and water flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Heilongjiang is the largest farm land and water supplier, in contrast to Shanghai as the largest receiver. The results help policy makers to comprehensively understand embodied farm land and water flows in a complex economy network. Improving resource utilization efficiency and reshaping the embodied resource trade nexus should be addressed by considering the transfer of regional responsibilities.

Capacity-Delay Trade-Off in Collaborative Hybrid Ad-Hoc Networks with Coverage Sensing.

PubMed

Chen, Lingyu; Luo, Wenbin; Liu, Chen; Hong, Xuemin; Shi, Jianghong

2017-01-26

The integration of ad hoc device-to-device (D2D) communications and open-access small cells can result in a networking paradigm called hybrid the ad hoc network, which is particularly promising in delivering delay-tolerant data. The capacity-delay performance of hybrid ad hoc networks has been studied extensively under a popular framework called scaling law analysis. These studies, however, do not take into account aspects of interference accumulation and queueing delay and, therefore, may lead to over-optimistic results. Moreover, focusing on the average measures, existing works fail to give finer-grained insights into the distribution of delays. This paper proposes an alternative analytical framework based on queueing theoretic models and physical interference models. We apply this framework to study the capacity-delay performance of a collaborative cellular D2D network with coverage sensing and two-hop relay. The new framework allows us to fully characterize the delay distribution in the transform domain and pinpoint the impacts of coverage sensing, user and base station densities, transmit power, user mobility and packet size on the capacity-delay trade-off. We show that under the condition of queueing equilibrium, the maximum throughput capacity per device saturates to an upper bound of 0.7239 λ b / λ u bits/s/Hz, where λ b and λ u are the densities of base stations and mobile users, respectively.

Capacity-Delay Trade-Off in Collaborative Hybrid Ad-Hoc Networks with Coverage Sensing

PubMed Central

Chen, Lingyu; Luo, Wenbin; Liu, Chen; Hong, Xuemin; Shi, Jianghong

2017-01-01

The integration of ad hoc device-to-device (D2D) communications and open-access small cells can result in a networking paradigm called hybrid the ad hoc network, which is particularly promising in delivering delay-tolerant data. The capacity-delay performance of hybrid ad hoc networks has been studied extensively under a popular framework called scaling law analysis. These studies, however, do not take into account aspects of interference accumulation and queueing delay and, therefore, may lead to over-optimistic results. Moreover, focusing on the average measures, existing works fail to give finer-grained insights into the distribution of delays. This paper proposes an alternative analytical framework based on queueing theoretic models and physical interference models. We apply this framework to study the capacity-delay performance of a collaborative cellular D2D network with coverage sensing and two-hop relay. The new framework allows us to fully characterize the delay distribution in the transform domain and pinpoint the impacts of coverage sensing, user and base station densities, transmit power, user mobility and packet size on the capacity-delay trade-off. We show that under the condition of queueing equilibrium, the maximum throughput capacity per device saturates to an upper bound of 0.7239 λb/λu bits/s/Hz, where λb and λu are the densities of base stations and mobile users, respectively. PMID:28134769

Impact of New Water Sources on the Overall Water Network: An Optimisation Approach

PubMed Central

Jones, Brian C.; Hove-Musekwa, Senelani D.

2014-01-01

A mathematical programming problem is formulated for a water network with new water sources included. Salinity and water hardness are considered in the model, which is later solved using the Max-Min Ant System (MMAS) to assess the impact of new water sources on the total cost of the existing network. It is efficient to include new water sources if the distances to them are short or if there is a high penalty associated with failure to meet demand. Desalination unit costs also significantly affect the decision whether to install new water sources into the existing network while softening costs are generally negligible in making such decisions. Experimental results show that, in the example considered, it is efficient to reduce number of desalination plants to remain with one central plant. The Max-Min Ant System algorithm seems to be an effective method as shown by least computational time as compared to the commercial solver Cplex. PMID:27382617

Global Trade and Public Health

PubMed Central

Shaffer, Ellen R.; Waitzkin, Howard; Brenner, Joseph; Jasso-Aguilar, Rebeca

2005-01-01

Global trade and international trade agreements have transformed the capacity of governments to monitor and to protect public health, to regulate occupational and environmental health conditions and food products, and to ensure affordable access to medications. Proposals under negotiation for the World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and the regional Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) agreement cover a wide range of health services, health facilities, clinician licensing, water and sanitation services, and tobacco and alcohol distribution services. Public health professionals and organizations rarely participate in trade negotiations or in resolution of trade disputes. The linkages among global trade, international trade agreements, and public health deserve more attention than they have received to date. PMID:15623854

The History of Makassan Trepang Fishing and Trade

PubMed Central

Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.

2010-01-01

The Malayan term trepang describes a variety of edible holothurians commonly known as sea cucumbers. Although found in temperate and tropical marine waters all over the world, the centre of species diversity and abundance are the shallow coastal waters of Island Southeast Asia. For at least 300 years, trepang has been a highly priced commodity in the Chinese market. Originally, its fishing and trade was a specialized business, centred on the town of Makassar in South Sulawesi (Indonesia). The rise of trepang fishing in the 17th century added valuable export merchandize to the rich shallow seas surrounding the islands of Southeast Asia. This enabled local communities to become part of large trading networks and greatly supported their economic development. In this article, we follow Makassan trepang fishing and trading from its beginning until the industrialization of the fishery and worldwide depletion of sea cucumbers in the 20th century. Thereby, we identify a number of characteristics which trepang fishing shares with the exploitation of other marine resources, including (1) a strong influence of international markets, (2) the role of patron-client relationships which heavily influence the resource selection, and (3) the roving-bandit-syndrome, where fishermen exploit local stocks of valuable resources until they are depleted, and then move to another area. We suggest that understanding the similarities and differences between historical and recent exploitation of marine resources is an important step towards effective management solutions. PMID:20613871

The history of Makassan trepang fishing and trade.

PubMed

Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Ferse, Sebastian C A

2010-06-29

The Malayan term trepang describes a variety of edible holothurians commonly known as sea cucumbers. Although found in temperate and tropical marine waters all over the world, the centre of species diversity and abundance are the shallow coastal waters of Island Southeast Asia. For at least 300 years, trepang has been a highly priced commodity in the Chinese market. Originally, its fishing and trade was a specialized business, centred on the town of Makassar in South Sulawesi (Indonesia). The rise of trepang fishing in the 17(th) century added valuable export merchandize to the rich shallow seas surrounding the islands of Southeast Asia. This enabled local communities to become part of large trading networks and greatly supported their economic development. In this article, we follow Makassan trepang fishing and trading from its beginning until the industrialization of the fishery and worldwide depletion of sea cucumbers in the 20(th) century. Thereby, we identify a number of characteristics which trepang fishing shares with the exploitation of other marine resources, including (1) a strong influence of international markets, (2) the role of patron-client relationships which heavily influence the resource selection, and (3) the roving-bandit-syndrome, where fishermen exploit local stocks of valuable resources until they are depleted, and then move to another area. We suggest that understanding the similarities and differences between historical and recent exploitation of marine resources is an important step towards effective management solutions.

Potential effects of LNG trade shift on transfer of ballast water and biota by ships.

PubMed

Holzer, Kimberly K; Muirhead, Jim R; Minton, Mark S; Carney, Katharine J; Miller, A Whitman; Ruiz, Gregory M

2017-02-15

As the US natural gas surplus grows, so does the prospect of establishing new trade partnerships with buyers abroad, a process that has major consequences for global ship movement and ballast water delivery. Since US annual imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) peaked in 2004-2007, the country is rapidly transitioning from net importer to net exporter of LNG. Combining multiple datasets, we estimated changes in the associated flux of ships' ballast water to the US during 2015-2040, using existing scenarios for projected exports of domestic LNG by ships. Our analysis of the current market (2015) scenario predicts an approximate 90-fold annual increase in LNG-related ballast water discharge to the US by 2040 (42millionm 3 ), with the potential to be even greater under high oil prices. We also described changes in geographic connectivity related to trade direction. These findings highlight how 21 st century global energy markets could dramatically alter opportunities for seaborne introductions and invasions by nonnative species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban Water Innovation Network (UWIN): Transitioning Toward Sustainbale Urban Water Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arabi, M.

2015-12-01

City water systems are at risk of disruption from global social and environmental hazards, which could have deleterious effects on human health, property, and loss of critical infrastructure. The Urban Water Innovation Network (UWIN), a consortium of 14 academic institutions and other key partners across the U.S., is working to address challenges that threaten urban water systems across the nation. UWIN's mission is to create technological, institutional and management solutions to help communities increase the resilience of their water systems and enhance their preparedness for responding to water crisis. The network seeks solutions that achieve widespread adoption consistent with inclusive, equitable and sustainable urban development. The integrative and adaptive analysis framework of UWIN is presented. The framework identifies a toolbox of sustainable solutions by simultaneously minimizing pressures, enhancing resilience to extreme events, and maximizing cobenefits. The benefits of sustainable urban water solutions for linked urban ecosystems, economies, and arrangements for environmental justice and social equity, will be discussed. The network encompasses six U.S. regions with varying ecohydrologic and climatic regimes ranging from the coastal moist mid-latitude climates of the Mid-Atlantic to the subtropical semi-arid deserts of the Southwest. These regions also represent a wide spectrum of demographic, cultural, and policy settings. The opportunities for cross-site assessments that facilitate the exploration of locally appropriate solutions across regions undergoing various development trajectories will be discussed.

International trade network: fractal properties and globalization puzzle.

PubMed

Karpiarz, Mariusz; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

2014-12-12

Globalization is one of the central concepts of our age. The common perception of the process is that, due to declining communication and transport costs, distance becomes less and less important. However, the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade, which grows in time, indicates that the role of distance increases rather than decreases. This, in essence, captures the notion of the globalization puzzle. Here, we show that the fractality of the international trade system (ITS) provides a simple solution for the puzzle. We argue that the distance coefficient corresponds to the fractal dimension of ITS. We provide two independent methods, the box counting method and spatial choice model, which confirm this statement. Our results allow us to conclude that the previous approaches to solving the puzzle misinterpreted the meaning of the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade.

International Trade Network: Fractal Properties and Globalization Puzzle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpiarz, Mariusz; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

2014-12-01

Globalization is one of the central concepts of our age. The common perception of the process is that, due to declining communication and transport costs, distance becomes less and less important. However, the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade, which grows in time, indicates that the role of distance increases rather than decreases. This, in essence, captures the notion of the globalization puzzle. Here, we show that the fractality of the international trade system (ITS) provides a simple solution for the puzzle. We argue that the distance coefficient corresponds to the fractal dimension of ITS. We provide two independent methods, the box counting method and spatial choice model, which confirm this statement. Our results allow us to conclude that the previous approaches to solving the puzzle misinterpreted the meaning of the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade.

Multiple Interactive Pollutants in Water Quality Trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarang, Amin; Lence, Barbara J.; Shamsai, Abolfazl

2008-10-01

Efficient environmental management calls for the consideration of multiple pollutants, for which two main types of transferable discharge permit (TDP) program have been described: separate permits that manage each pollutant individually in separate markets, with each permit based on the quantity of the pollutant or its environmental effects, and weighted-sum permits that aggregate several pollutants as a single commodity to be traded in a single market. In this paper, we perform a mathematical analysis of TDP programs for multiple pollutants that jointly affect the environment (i.e., interactive pollutants) and demonstrate the practicality of this approach for cost-efficient maintenance of river water quality. For interactive pollutants, the relative weighting factors are functions of the water quality impacts, marginal damage function, and marginal treatment costs at optimality. We derive the optimal set of weighting factors required by this approach for important scenarios for multiple interactive pollutants and propose using an analytical elasticity of substitution function to estimate damage functions for these scenarios. We evaluate the applicability of this approach using a hypothetical example that considers two interactive pollutants. We compare the weighted-sum permit approach for interactive pollutants with individual permit systems and TDP programs for multiple additive pollutants. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implementation issues that result from the application of weighted-sum permit programs.

Sex Trading Among Hazardously Drinking Jailed Women.

PubMed

Schonbrun, Yael Chatav; Johnson, Jennifer; Anderson, Bradley J; Stein, Michael D

For women involved in sex trading, both alcohol problems and passage through the criminal justice system are highly prevalent. This study is the first to conduct a focused examination of factors associated with sex trading among hazardously drinking, pretrial, jailed women. Cocaine use, social support for alcohol abstinence, and more days incarcerated in the 90 days leading up to the index incarceration were significantly associated with sex trading involvement among alcoholic women. Helping incarcerated alcoholic women reduce cocaine use and improve sober support networks during and following an incarceration may minimize sex trading after release.

Does encouraging the use of wetlands in water quality trading Programs make economic sense? presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Water quality trading has grown in popularity and scope in recent years owing to its potential as a flexible, low-cost way to achieve nutrient reduction goals. Policy makers are interested in encouraging traders, primarily agricultural sources, to use restored and constructed we...

[Study on the automatic parameters identification of water pipe network model].

PubMed

Jia, Hai-Feng; Zhao, Qi-Feng

2010-01-01

Based on the problems analysis on development and application of water pipe network model, the model parameters automatic identification is regarded as a kernel bottleneck of model's application in water supply enterprise. The methodology of water pipe network model parameters automatic identification based on GIS and SCADA database is proposed. Then the kernel algorithm of model parameters automatic identification is studied, RSA (Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis) is used for automatic recognition of sensitive parameters, and MCS (Monte-Carlo Sampling) is used for automatic identification of parameters, the detail technical route based on RSA and MCS is presented. The module of water pipe network model parameters automatic identification is developed. At last, selected a typical water pipe network as a case, the case study on water pipe network model parameters automatic identification is conducted and the satisfied results are achieved.

Virtual water management in the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B.; Van Beek, L. P.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Bierkens, M. F.; Scheidel, W.; Wassen, M. J.; Van der Velde, Y.; Dekker, S. C.

2013-12-01

Climate change can have extreme societal impacts particularly in regions that are water-limited for agriculture. A society's ability to manage its water resources in such environments is critical to its long-term viability. Water management can involve improving agricultural yields through in-situ irrigation or the redistribution of virtual water resources through trade in food. Here, we explore how such water management strategies improve societal resilience by examining virtual water management during the Roman Empire in the water-limited region of the Mediterranean. Climate was prescribed based on previously published reconstructions which show that during the Roman Empire when the Central Mediterranean was wetter, the West and Southeastern Mediterranean became drier and vice-versa. Evidence indicates that these shifts in the climatic seesaw may have occurred relatively rapidly. Using the Global hydrological model PCR GLOBWB and estimates of landcover based on the HYDE dataset we generate potential agricultural yield maps under two extremes of this climatic seesaw. HYDE estimates of population in conjunction with potential yield estimates are used to identify regions of Mediterranean with a yield surplus or deficit. The surplus and deficit regions form nodes on a virtual water redistribution network with transport costs taken from the Stanford Geospatial Network Model of the Roman World (ORBIS). Our demand-driven, virtual water redistribution network allows us to quantitatively explore the importance of water management strategies such as irrigation and food trade for the Romans. By examining virtual water transport cost anomalies between climate scenarios our analysis highlights regions of the Mediterranean that were most vulnerable to climate change during the Roman Period.

Wildlife trade and global disease emergence.

PubMed

Karesh, William B; Cook, Robert A; Bennett, Elizabeth L; Newcomb, James

2005-07-01

The global trade in wildlife provides disease transmission mechanisms that not only cause human disease outbreaks but also threaten livestock, international trade, rural livelihoods, native wildlife populations, and the health of ecosystems. Outbreaks resulting from wildlife trade have caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic damage globally. Rather than attempting to eradicate pathogens or the wild species that may harbor them, a practical approach would include decreasing the contact rate among species, including humans, at the interface created by the wildlife trade. Since wildlife marketing functions as a system of scale-free networks with major hubs, these points provide control opportunities to maximize the effects of regulatory efforts.

The use and impact of intraplant trading in the iron and steel industry to reduce water pollution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kashmanian, R.M.; Podar, M.K.; Luttner, M.A.

1995-12-01

Economists have long proposed that market forces could be harnessed to achieve environmental goals more efficiently than regulations typically used. However, there have been few opportunities to test this concept in practice. The authors investigate the use and impact of one example of incentive-based environmental regulation. For more than ten years, the US Environmental Protection Agency has permitted iron and steel plants to distribute facility-wide water pollutant discharge limits among outfalls in whatever manner is determined by the plant to be least expensive. Although this intra-plant trading system is highly regulated to ensure environmental goals are achieved, it nonetheless servesmore » as an excellent test case of the economic theory. At least ten iron and steel facilities have incorporated intra-plant trading in their discharge permits, with five trades still active. Estimates obtained from seven facilities indicate trading resulted in accumulated total savings compared to traditional technology-based limits of at least $122.7 million (1993 dollars), including capital and annual operation and maintenance costs. The net pollutant reductions permitted under trading range from less than one pound per day for most trades involving lead and zinc to several thousand pounds per day for some trades involving total suspended solids.« less

The Air-Carbon-Water Synergies and Trade-Offs in China's Natural Gas Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yue

China's coal-dominated energy structure is partly responsible for its domestic air pollution, local water stress, and the global climate change. Primarily to tackle the haze issue, China has been actively promoting a nationwide coal to natural gas end-use switch. My dissertation focuses on evaluating the air quality, carbon, and water impacts and their interactions in China's natural gas industry. Chapter 2 assesses the lifecycle climate performance of China's shale gas in comparison to coal based on stage-level energy consumption and methane leakage rates. I find the mean lifecycle carbon footprint of shale gas is about 30-50% lower than that of coal under both 20 year and 100 year global warming potentials (GWP20 and GWP100). However, primarily due to large uncertainties in methane leakage, the lifecycle carbon footprint of shale gas in China could be 15-60% higher than that of coal across sectors under GWP20. Chapter 3 evaluates the air quality, human health, and the climate impacts of China's coal-based synthetic natural gas (SNG) development. Based on earlier 2020 SNG production targets, I conduct an integrated assessment to identify production technologies and end-use applications that will bring as large air quality and health benefits as possible while keeping carbon penalties as small as possible. I find that, due to inefficient and uncontrolled coal combustion in households, allocating currently available SNG to the residential sector proves to be the best SNG allocation option. Chapter 4 compares the air quality, carbon, and water impacts of China's six major gas sources under three end-use substitution scenarios, which are focused on maximizing air pollutant emission reductions, CO 2 emission reductions, and water stress index (WSI)-weighted water consumption reductions, respectively. I find striking national air-carbon/water trade-offs due to SNG, which also significantly increases water demands and carbon emissions in regions already suffering from

Opportunity for peri-urban Perth groundwater trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lei; Connor, Jeff; Doble, Rebecca; Ali, Riasat; McFarlane, Don

2013-07-01

Groundwater trade is widely advocated for reallocating scarce groundwater resources between competing users, and managing over-allocated and declining aquifers. However, groundwater markets are still in their infancy, and the potential benefits and opportunities need investigation, particularly where there is a need to reduce the extraction from declining aquifers. This article evaluates economic impacts of reducing groundwater extraction for irrigation use in peri-urban Perth, Australia, where irrigation, a lake-based ecosystem, and public water supply are highly dependent on a declining groundwater resource. We present an assessment of market-based water trading approaches to reduce groundwater extraction with an economic model representing diversity in returns to groundwater use across a population of irrigators. The results indicate that potential economic costs of a proportional reduction in available groundwater for irrigation are 18-21% less if groundwater trade is possible. We also evaluate a water buyback from irrigation to provide public water supply as an alternative to new infrastructure. We find that buying back up to around 50% of current irrigation allocations could create new public water supply only at the cost of 0.32-0.39 million per GL, which is less than one fifth of the costs of new desalinisation or recycled water supply options (2-3 million per GL). We conclude that, with rapid development of computer and internet based trading platforms that allows fast, efficient and low cost multiple party trading, it is increasingly feasible to realise the economic potentials of market-based trade approaches for managing overexploited aquifers.

Pollution source localization in an urban water supply network based on dynamic water demand.

PubMed

Yan, Xuesong; Zhu, Zhixin; Li, Tian

2017-10-27

Urban water supply networks are susceptible to intentional, accidental chemical, and biological pollution, which pose a threat to the health of consumers. In recent years, drinking-water pollution incidents have occurred frequently, seriously endangering social stability and security. The real-time monitoring for water quality can be effectively implemented by placing sensors in the water supply network. However, locating the source of pollution through the data detection obtained by water quality sensors is a challenging problem. The difficulty lies in the limited number of sensors, large number of water supply network nodes, and dynamic user demand for water, which leads the pollution source localization problem to an uncertainty, large-scale, and dynamic optimization problem. In this paper, we mainly study the dynamics of the pollution source localization problem. Previous studies of pollution source localization assume that hydraulic inputs (e.g., water demand of consumers) are known. However, because of the inherent variability of urban water demand, the problem is essentially a fluctuating dynamic problem of consumer's water demand. In this paper, the water demand is considered to be stochastic in nature and can be described using Gaussian model or autoregressive model. On this basis, an optimization algorithm is proposed based on these two dynamic water demand change models to locate the pollution source. The objective of the proposed algorithm is to find the locations and concentrations of pollution sources that meet the minimum between the analogue and detection values of the sensor. Simulation experiments were conducted using two different sizes of urban water supply network data, and the experimental results were compared with those of the standard genetic algorithm.

Evaluating the Life Cycle Environmental Benefits and Trade-Offs of Water Reuse Systems for Net-Zero Buildings.

PubMed

Hasik, Vaclav; Anderson, Naomi E; Collinge, William O; Thiel, Cassandra L; Khanna, Vikas; Wirick, Jason; Piacentini, Richard; Landis, Amy E; Bilec, Melissa M

2017-02-07

Aging water infrastructure and increased water scarcity have resulted in higher interest in water reuse and decentralization. Rating systems for high-performance buildings implicitly promote the use of building-scale, decentralized water supply and treatment technologies. It is important to recognize the potential benefits and trade-offs of decentralized and centralized water systems in the context of high-performance buildings. For this reason and to fill a gap in the current literature, we completed a life cycle assessment (LCA) of the decentralized water system of a high-performance, net-zero energy, net-zero water building (NZB) that received multiple green building certifications and compared the results with two modeled buildings (conventional and water efficient) using centralized water systems. We investigated the NZB's impacts over varying lifetimes, conducted a break-even analysis, and included Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The results show that, although the NZB performs better in most categories than the conventional building, the water efficient building generally outperforms the NZB. The lifetime of the NZB, septic tank aeration, and use of solar energy have been found to be important factors in the NZB's impacts. While these findings are specific to the case study building, location, and treatment technologies, the framework for comparison of water and wastewater impacts of various buildings can be applied during building design to aid decision making. As we design and operate high-performance buildings, the potential trade-offs of advanced decentralized water treatment systems should be considered.

Does encouraging the use of wetlands in water quality trading programs make economic sense? journal

EPA Science Inventory

This paper examines a proposal to incorporate the use of wetlands in water quality trading (WQT) programs in order to meet national wetlands goals and advance WQT. It develops a competitive WQT model wherein wetland services are explicitly considered. To participate in a WQT pro...

Physicians and Insider Trading.

PubMed

Kesselheim, Aaron S; Sinha, Michael S; Joffe, Steven

2015-12-01

Although insider trading is illegal, recent high-profile cases have involved physicians and scientists who are part of corporate governance or who have access to information about clinical trials of investigational products. Insider trading occurs when a person in possession of information that might affect the share price of a company's stock uses that information to buy or sell securities--or supplies that information to others who buy or sell--when the person is expected to keep such information confidential. The input that physicians and scientists provide to business leaders can serve legitimate social functions, but insider trading threatens to undermine any positive outcomes of these relationships. We review insider-trading rules and consider approaches to securities fraud in the health care field. Given the magnitude of the potential financial rewards, the ease of concealing illegal conduct, and the absence of identifiable victims, the temptation for physicians and scientists to engage in insider trading will always be present. Minimizing the occurrence of insider trading will require robust education, strictly enforced contractual provisions, and selective prohibitions against high-risk conduct, such as participation in expert consulting networks and online physician forums, by those individuals with access to valuable inside information.

Regulatory Aspects of Smart Water Networks in the U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

The presentation addresses regulatory aspects of smart water networks in the U.S. It will be presented at the Smart Water Networks Forum (SWAN) annual conference in London, England from April 29-30, 2015. The conference will bring together key voices in the smart water space f...

U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Climate Response Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey serves the Nation by providing reliable hydrologic information used by others to manage the Nation's water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measures more than 20,000 wells each year for a variety of objectives as part of Federal programs and in cooperation with State and local agencies. Water-level data are collected using consistent data-collection and quality-control methods. A small subset of these wells meets the criteria necessary to be included in a 'Climate Response Network' of wells designed to illustrate the response of the ground-water system to climate variations nationwide. The primary purpose of the Climate Response Network is to portray the effect of climate on ground-water levels in unconfined aquifers or near-surface confined aquifers that are minimally affected by pumping or other anthropogenic stresses. The Climate Response Network Web site (http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/) is the official USGS Web site for illustrating current ground-water conditions in the United States and Puerto Rico. The Climate Response Network Web pages provide information on ground-water conditions at a variety of scales. A national map provides a broad overview of water-table conditions across the Nation. State maps provide a more local picture of ground-water conditions. Site pages provide the details about a specific well.

Prediction of Pig Trade Movements in Different European Production Systems Using Exponential Random Graph Models.

PubMed

Relun, Anne; Grosbois, Vladimir; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Jose M; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Molia, Sophie; Etter, Eric Marcel Charles; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2017-01-01

In most European countries, data regarding movements of live animals are routinely collected and can greatly aid predictive epidemic modeling. However, the use of complete movements' dataset to conduct policy-relevant predictions has been so far limited by the massive amount of data that have to be processed (e.g., in intensive commercial systems) or the restricted availability of timely and updated records on animal movements (e.g., in areas where small-scale or extensive production is predominant). The aim of this study was to use exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to reproduce, understand, and predict pig trade networks in different European production systems. Three trade networks were built by aggregating movements of pig batches among premises (farms and trade operators) over 2011 in Bulgaria, Extremadura (Spain), and Côtes-d'Armor (France), where small-scale, extensive, and intensive pig production are predominant, respectively. Three ERGMs were fitted to each network with various demographic and geographic attributes of the nodes as well as six internal network configurations. Several statistical and graphical diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. For all systems, both exogenous (attribute-based) and endogenous (network-based) processes appeared to govern the structure of pig trade network, and neither alone were capable of capturing all aspects of the network structure. Geographic mixing patterns strongly structured pig trade organization in the small-scale production system, whereas belonging to the same company or keeping pigs in the same housing system appeared to be key drivers of pig trade, in intensive and extensive production systems, respectively. Heterogeneous mixing between types of production also explained a part of network structure, whichever production system considered. Limited information is thus needed to capture most of the global structure of pig trade networks. Such findings will be useful

Development of a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion method for planning water resources systems with a trading mechanism.

PubMed

Zeng, X T; Huang, G H; Li, Y P; Zhang, J L; Cai, Y P; Liu, Z P; Liu, L R

2016-12-01

This study developed a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion (FSGZ) method for water resources allocation and water quality management with a trading-mechanism (WAQT) under uncertainties. FSGZ can handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, and it can also quantify objective/subjective fuzziness in the decision-making process. Risk-averse attitudes and robustness coefficient are joined to express the relationship between the expected target and outcome under various risk preferences of decision makers and systemic robustness. The developed method is applied to a real-world case of WAQT in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin in northwest China, where an effective mechanism (e.g., market trading) to simultaneously confront severely diminished water availability and degraded water quality is required. Results of water transaction amounts, water allocation patterns, pollution mitigation schemes, and system benefits under various scenarios are analyzed, which indicate that a trading-mechanism is a more sustainable method to manage water-environment crisis in the study region. Additionally, consideration of anthropogenic (e.g., a risk-averse attitude) and systemic factors (e.g., the robustness coefficient) can support the generation of a robust plan associated with risk control for WAQT when uncertainty is present. These findings assist local policy and decision makers to gain insights into water-environment capacity planning to balance the basin's social and economic growth with protecting the region's ecosystems.

"Measuring by the bushel": reweighing the Indian Ocean pepper trade.

PubMed

Prange, Sebastian R

2011-01-01

Of all the oriental spices, black pepper was the most important until the eighteenth century. The historiography of the pepper trade is characterized by a strong focus on Europe in terms of both its economic significance in the ancient and medieval periods and the struggle for its control in the early modern period. This article, by contrast, seeks to situate the pepper trade firmly in its Asian contexts. It examines the Indian Ocean pepper trade from three perspectives. First, it places the trade in its supply-side context by focusing on the Malabar coast as the primary source of pepper. Second, it examines the relative importance of the different branches of Malabar's pepper trade and highlights the central role played by Muslim mercantile networks. Third, it considers the reconfiguration of these pepper networks in the sixteenth century in the face of aggressive competition from the Portuguese. In their sum, these arguments advocate the need for rethought balances of trade and a reweighted scholarly focus on the pepper trade in its global dimensions.

Sex Trading Among Hazardously Drinking Jailed Women

PubMed Central

Schonbrun, Yael Chatav; Johnson, Jennifer; Anderson, Bradley J.; Stein, Michael D.

2016-01-01

For women involved in sex trading, both alcohol problems and passage through the criminal justice system are highly prevalent. This study is the first to conduct a focused examination of factors associated with sex trading among hazardously drinking, pretrial, jailed women. Cocaine use, social support for alcohol abstinence, and more days incarcerated in the 90 days leading up to the index incarceration were significantly associated with sex trading involvement among alcoholic women. Helping incarcerated alcoholic women reduce cocaine use and improve sober support networks during and following an incarceration may minimize sex trading after release. PMID:28190917

Evaluation of crop production, trade, and consumption from the perspective of water resources: a case study of the Hetao irrigation district, China, for 1960-2010.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Sun, Shikun; Wu, Pute; Wang, Yubao; Zhao, Xining

2015-02-01

The integration of water footprints and virtual water flows allows the mapping of the links between production, trade, and consumption and could potentially help to alleviate water scarcity and improve water management. We evaluated the water footprints and virtual water flows of crop production, consumption, and trade and their influencing factors in the Hetao irrigation district in China for 1960-2010. The water footprint of crop production and the export of virtual water fluctuated but tended to increase during this period and were influenced mainly by agricultural factors such as crop yield, irrigation efficiency, and area sown. The water footprint of crop consumption and the import of virtual water increased during 1960-1979 and decreased during 1980-2010 and were influenced by socio-economic factors such as total population, the retail-price index, and the proportion of the population in urban areas. Most of the water footprint of production was exported to other areas, which added to the pressure on local water systems. The import of virtual water led to a saving of water for the Hetao irrigation district, while its share of the water footprint of consumption has decreased significantly since 1977. An increase in irrigation efficiency can alleviate water scarcity, and its application should be coupled with measures that constrain the continued expansion of agriculture. Full-cost pricing of irrigation water was an effective policy tool for its management. Re-shaping regional water-production and water-trade nexuses by changing crop structures could provide alternative opportunities for addressing the problems of local water scarcity, but the trade-offs involved should first be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Parallel Trade Study Architecture for Design Optimization of Complex Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Hongman; Mullins, James; Ragon, Scott; Soremekun, Grant; Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw

2005-01-01

Design of a successful product requires evaluating many design alternatives in a limited design cycle time. This can be achieved through leveraging design space exploration tools and available computing resources on the network. This paper presents a parallel trade study architecture to integrate trade study clients and computing resources on a network using Web services. The parallel trade study solution is demonstrated to accelerate design of experiments, genetic algorithm optimization, and a cost as an independent variable (CAIV) study for a space system application.

A proposed ground-water quality monitoring network for Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitehead, R.L.; Parliman, D.J.

1979-01-01

A ground water quality monitoring network is proposed for Idaho. The network comprises 565 sites, 8 of which will require construction of new wells. Frequencies of sampling at the different sites are assigned at quarterly, semiannual, annual, and 5 years. Selected characteristics of the water will be monitored by both laboratory- and field-analysis methods. The network is designed to: (1) Enable water managers to keep abreast of the general quality of the State 's ground water, and (2) serve as a warning system for undesirable changes in ground-water quality. Data were compiled for hydrogeologic conditions, ground-water quality, cultural elements, and pollution sources. A ' hydrologic unit priority index ' is used to rank 84 hydrologic units (river basins or segments of river basins) of the State for monitoring according to pollution potential. Emphasis for selection of monitoring sites is placed on the 15 highest ranked units. The potential for pollution is greatest in areas of privately owned agricultural land. Other areas of pollution potential are residential development, mining and related processes, and hazardous waste disposal. Data are given for laboratory and field analyses, number of site visits, manpower, subsistence, and mileage, from which costs for implementing the network can be estimated. Suggestions are made for data storage and retrieval and for reporting changes in water quality. (Kosco-USGS)

Statewide water-quality network for Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Desimone, Leslie A.; Steeves, Peter A.; Zimmerman, Marc James

2001-01-01

A water-quality monitoring program is proposed that would provide data to meet multiple information needs of Massachusetts agencies and other users concerned with the condition of the State's water resources. The program was designed by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Watershed Management, with input from many organizations involved in water-quality monitoring in the State, and focuses on inland surface waters (streams and lakes). The proposed monitoring program consists of several components, or tiers, which are defined in terms of specific monitoring objectives, and is intended to complement the Massachusetts Watershed Initiative (MWI) basin assessments. Several components were developed using the Neponset River Basin in eastern Massachusetts as a pilot area, or otherwise make use of data from and sampling approaches used in that basin as part of a MWI pilot assessment in 1994. To guide development of the monitoring program, reviews were conducted of general principles of network design, including monitoring objectives and approaches, and of ongoing monitoring activities of Massachusetts State agencies.Network tiers described in this report are primarily (1) a statewide, basin-based assessment of existing surface-water-quality conditions, and (2) a fixed-station network for determining contaminant loads carried by major rivers. Other components, including (3) targeted programs for hot-spot monitoring and other objectives, and (4) compliance monitoring, also are discussed. Monitoring programs for the development of Total Maximum Daily Loads for specific water bodies, which would constitute another tier of the network, are being developed separately and are not described in this report. The basin-based assessment of existing conditions is designed to provide information on the status of surface waters with respect to State water-quality standards and designated uses in accordance with the

Estimating the extent and structure of trade in horticultural orchids via social media.

PubMed

Hinsley, Amy; Lee, Tamsin E; Harrison, Joseph R; Roberts, David L

2016-10-01

The wildlife trade is a lucrative industry involving thousands of animal and plant species. The increasing use of the internet for both legal and illegal wildlife trade is well documented, but there is evidence that trade may be emerging on new online technologies such as social media. Using the orchid trade as a case study, we conducted the first systematic survey of wildlife trade on an international social-media website. We focused on themed forums (groups), where people with similar interests can interact by uploading images or text (posts) that are visible to other group members. We used social-network analysis to examine the ties between 150 of these orchid-themed groups to determine the structure of the network. We found 4 communities of closely linked groups based around shared language. Most trade occurred in a community that consisted of English-speaking and Southeast Asian groups. In addition to the network analysis, we randomly sampled 30 groups from the whole network to assess the prevalence of trade in cultivated and wild plants. Of 55,805 posts recorded over 12 weeks, 8.9% contained plants for sale, and 22-46% of these posts pertained to wild-collected orchids. Although total numbers of posts about trade were relatively small, the large proportion of posts advertising wild orchids for sale supports calls for better monitoring of social media for trade in wild-collected plants. © 2016 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Calculation method of water injection forward modeling and inversion process in oilfield water injection network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Long; Liu, Wei

2018-04-01

A forward modeling and inversion algorithm is adopted in order to determine the water injection plan in the oilfield water injection network. The main idea of the algorithm is shown as follows: firstly, the oilfield water injection network is inversely calculated. The pumping station demand flow is calculated. Then, forward modeling calculation is carried out for judging whether all water injection wells meet the requirements of injection allocation or not. If all water injection wells meet the requirements of injection allocation, calculation is stopped, otherwise the demand injection allocation flow rate of certain step size is reduced aiming at water injection wells which do not meet requirements, and next iterative operation is started. It is not necessary to list the algorithm into water injection network system algorithm, which can be realized easily. Iterative method is used, which is suitable for computer programming. Experimental result shows that the algorithm is fast and accurate.

A Unifying Mathematical Framework for Genetic Robustness, Environmental Robustness, Network Robustness and their Trade-offs on Phenotype Robustness in Biological Networks. Part III: Synthetic Gene Networks in Synthetic Biology

PubMed Central

Chen, Bor-Sen; Lin, Ying-Po

2013-01-01

Robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are ubiquitous systematic properties that are observed in biological systems at many different levels. The underlying principles for robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are universal to both complex biological systems and sophisticated engineering systems. In many biological networks, network robustness should be large enough to confer: intrinsic robustness for tolerating intrinsic parameter fluctuations; genetic robustness for buffering genetic variations; and environmental robustness for resisting environmental disturbances. Network robustness is needed so phenotype stability of biological network can be maintained, guaranteeing phenotype robustness. Synthetic biology is foreseen to have important applications in biotechnology and medicine; it is expected to contribute significantly to a better understanding of functioning of complex biological systems. This paper presents a unifying mathematical framework for investigating the principles of both robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation for synthetic gene networks in synthetic biology. Further, from the unifying mathematical framework, we found that the phenotype robustness criterion for synthetic gene networks is the following: if intrinsic robustness + genetic robustness + environmental robustness ≦ network robustness, then the phenotype robustness can be maintained in spite of intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental disturbances. Therefore, the trade-offs between intrinsic robustness, genetic robustness, environmental robustness, and network robustness in synthetic biology can also be investigated through corresponding phenotype robustness criteria from the systematic point of view. Finally, a robust synthetic design that involves network evolution algorithms with desired behavior under intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental

A Unifying Mathematical Framework for Genetic Robustness, Environmental Robustness, Network Robustness and their Trade-offs on Phenotype Robustness in Biological Networks. Part III: Synthetic Gene Networks in Synthetic Biology.

PubMed

Chen, Bor-Sen; Lin, Ying-Po

2013-01-01

Robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are ubiquitous systematic properties that are observed in biological systems at many different levels. The underlying principles for robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are universal to both complex biological systems and sophisticated engineering systems. In many biological networks, network robustness should be large enough to confer: intrinsic robustness for tolerating intrinsic parameter fluctuations; genetic robustness for buffering genetic variations; and environmental robustness for resisting environmental disturbances. Network robustness is needed so phenotype stability of biological network can be maintained, guaranteeing phenotype robustness. Synthetic biology is foreseen to have important applications in biotechnology and medicine; it is expected to contribute significantly to a better understanding of functioning of complex biological systems. This paper presents a unifying mathematical framework for investigating the principles of both robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation for synthetic gene networks in synthetic biology. Further, from the unifying mathematical framework, we found that the phenotype robustness criterion for synthetic gene networks is the following: if intrinsic robustness + genetic robustness + environmental robustness ≦ network robustness, then the phenotype robustness can be maintained in spite of intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental disturbances. Therefore, the trade-offs between intrinsic robustness, genetic robustness, environmental robustness, and network robustness in synthetic biology can also be investigated through corresponding phenotype robustness criteria from the systematic point of view. Finally, a robust synthetic design that involves network evolution algorithms with desired behavior under intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental

A framework for unravelling the complexities of unsustainable water resource use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, Brian; Bierkens, Marc; Wassen, Martin; Dekker, Stefan

2016-04-01

The majority of unsustainable water resource use is associated with food production, with the agricultural sector accounting for up to 70% of total freshwater use by humans. Water resource use in food production emerges as a result of dynamic interactions between humans and their environment in importing and exporting regions as well as the physical and socioeconomic trade infrastructure linking the two. Thus in order to understand unsustainable water resource use, it is essential to understand the complex socioecological food production and trade system. We present a modelling framework of the food production and trade system that facilitates an understanding of complex socioenvironmental processes that lead to unsustainable water resource use. Our framework is based on a coupling of the global hydrological model PC Raster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) with a multi-agent socioeconomic food production and trade network. In our framework, agents perceive environmental conditions. They make food supply decisions based upon those perceptions and the heterogeneous socioeconomic conditions in which they exist. Agent decisions modify land and water resources. Those environmental changes feedback to influence decision making further. The framework presented has the potential to go beyond a diagnosis of the causes of unsustainable water resource and provide pathways towards a sustainable food system in terms of water resources.

Generating Stock Trading Rules Using Genetic Network Programming with Flag Nodes and Adjustment of Importance Indexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabu, Shingo; Chen, Yan; Hirasawa, Kotaro

Genetic Network Programming (GNP) is an evolutionary algorithm which represents its solutions using graph structures. Since GNP can create quite compact programs and has an implicit memory function, GNP works well especially in dynamic environments. In addition, a study on creating trading rules on stock markets using GNP with Importance Index (GNP-IMX) has been done. IMX is one of the criterions for decision making. However, the values of IMXs must be deteminined by our experience/knowledge. Therefore in this paper, IMXs are adjusted appropriately during the stock trading in order to predict the rise and fall of the stocks. Moreover, newly defined flag nodes are introduced to GNP, which can appropriately judge the current situation of the stock prices, and also contributes to the use of many kinds of nodes in GNP program. In the simulation, programs are evolved using the stock prices of 20 companies. Then the generalization ability is tested and compared with GNP without flag nodes, GNP without IMX adjustment and Buy&Hold.

An economic inquisition of water quality trading programs, with a case study of Jordan Lake, NC.

PubMed

Motallebi, Marzieh; Hoag, Dana L; Tasdighi, Ali; Arabi, Mazdak; Osmond, Deanna L

2017-05-15

A water quality trading (WQT) program was promulgated in North Carolina to address water quality issues related to nutrients in the highly urbanizing Jordan Lake Watershed. Although WQT programs are appealing in theory, the concept has not proved feasible in several attempts between point and nonpoint polluters in the United States. Many application hurdles that create wedges between success and failure have been evaluated in the literature. Most programs, however, face multiple hurdles; eliminating one may not clear a pathway to success. Therefore, we identify and evaluate the combined impact of four different wedges including baseline, transaction cost, trading ratio, and trading cost in the Jordan Lake Watershed program. Unfortunately, when applied to the Jordan Lake program, the analysis clearly shows that a traditional WQT program will not be feasible or address nutrient management needs in a meaningful way. The hurdles individually would be difficult to overcome, but together they appear to be unsurmountable. This analysis shows that there is enough information to pre-identify potential hurdles that could inform policy makers where, and how, the concept might work. It would have saved time, energy, and financial resources if North Carolina had done so before embarking to implement their program in the Jordan Lake Watershed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Live bird markets characterization and trading network analysis in Mali: Implications for the surveillance and control of avian influenza and Newcastle disease.

PubMed

Molia, Sophie; Boly, Ismaël Ardho; Duboz, Raphaël; Coulibaly, Boubacar; Guitian, Javier; Grosbois, Vladimir; Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo

2016-03-01

Live bird markets (LBMs) play an important role in the transmission of avian influenza (AI) and Newcastle disease (ND) viruses in poultry. Our study had two objectives: (1) characterizing LBMs in Mali with a focus on practices influencing the risk of transmission of AI and ND, and (2) identifying which LBMs should be targeted for surveillance and control based on properties of the live poultry trade network. Two surveys were conducted in 2009-2010: a descriptive study in all 96 LBMs of an area encompassing approximately 98% of the Malian poultry population and a network analysis study in Sikasso county, the main poultry supplying county for the capital city Bamako. Regarding LBMs' characteristics, risk factors for the presence of AI and ND viruses (being open every day, more than 2 days before a bird is sold, absence of zoning to segregate poultry-related work flow areas, waste removal or cleaning and disinfecting less frequently than on a daily basis, trash disposal of dead birds and absence of manure processing) were present in 80-100% of the LBMs. Furthermore, LBMs tended to have wide catchment areas because of consumers' preference for village poultry meat, thereby involving a large number of villages in their supply chain. In the poultry trade network from/to Sikasso county, 182 traders were involved and 685 links were recorded among 159 locations. The network had a heterogeneous degree distribution and four hubs were identified based on measures of in-degrees, out-degrees and betweenness: the markets of Medine and Wayerma and the fairs of Farakala and Niena. These results can be used to design biosecurity-improvement interventions and to optimize the prevention, surveillance and control of transmissible poultry diseases in Malian LBMs. Further studies should investigate potential drivers (seasonality, prices) of the poultry trade network and the acceptability of biosecurity and behavior-change recommendations in the Malian socio-cultural context. Copyright �

Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telfah, Dua'a. B.; Minciardi, Riccardo; Roth, Giorgio

2018-06-01

Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in providing directions to

Mycorrhizal Networks: Common Goods of Plants Shared under Unequal Terms of Trade1[W][OA

PubMed Central

Walder, Florian; Niemann, Helge; Natarajan, Mathimaran; Lehmann, Moritz F.; Boller, Thomas; Wiemken, Andres

2012-01-01

Plants commonly live in a symbiotic association with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). They invest photosynthetic products to feed their fungal partners, which, in return, provide mineral nutrients foraged in the soil by their intricate hyphal networks. Intriguingly, AMF can link neighboring plants, forming common mycorrhizal networks (CMNs). What are the terms of trade in such CMNs between plants and their shared fungal partners? To address this question, we set up microcosms containing a pair of test plants, interlinked by a CMN of Glomus intraradices or Glomus mosseae. The plants were flax (Linum usitatissimum; a C3 plant) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor; a C4 plant), which display distinctly different 13C/12C isotope compositions. This allowed us to differentially assess the carbon investment of the two plants into the CMN through stable isotope tracing. In parallel, we determined the plants’ “return of investment” (i.e. the acquisition of nutrients via CMN) using 15N and 33P as tracers. Depending on the AMF species, we found a strong asymmetry in the terms of trade: flax invested little carbon but gained up to 94% of the nitrogen and phosphorus provided by the CMN, which highly facilitated growth, whereas the neighboring sorghum invested massive amounts of carbon with little return but was barely affected in growth. Overall biomass production in the mixed culture surpassed the mean of the two monocultures. Thus, CMNs may contribute to interplant facilitation and the productivity boosts often found with intercropping compared with conventional monocropping. PMID:22517410

Co-benefits and trade-offs in the water-energy nexus of irrigation modernization in China